UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

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Another YouGov London poll: Labour 45, Con 34, LDem 8, UKIP 8, Greens 8

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Is their stance on nuclear power still 'its bad except when its on Anglesey'?

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Even if the overall figures fit into wider patterns, you probably shouldn't over analyse anything ComRes churn out...

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Regarding Plaid, they're under pressure in Arfon and possibly Carmarthen East & Dinefwr. The Island is a law unto itself (of course), while they will be hoping for a repeat of 1992 in Ceredigion (I have no idea how likely or not that is). They always try in Llanelli but have yet to come close. Elsewhere they will make a noise but that's likely it.

Incidentally, it's not entirely impossible that after May there will be no Liberal seats in Wales for the first time since... er... well 'ever' will probably do. Since at least the 1720s if we're counting ancestral parties.

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If Leanne Wood does well at the debate

That's a pretty big 'if', to be honest.

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Bet she does a section in Welsh, just to really throw the others off.

That would certainly add an amusing note to proceedings for any Welsh-speakers watching...

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The more people there are in a candidate debate, the duller the candidate debate becomes. And the duller it becomes, the less chance there is of it changing the tone of the campaign. And there's your answer.

As to constituency polls, remember to handle with care. There were a couple of howlers in the recent NSW state election, you might like to note.

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Benton was basically forced to retire (he was not formally deselected) because he was getting increasingly complacent and inactive in his old age. Elderly MPs who remain active in some way usually have no difficulty getting rubber stamped for re-selection by their CLPs, but when they don't...

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The NowCast thing is obviously patent bullsh!t, but is kind of fun. Just so long as you remember the first half of that.

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*If* the polls improve considerably for the Tories during the campaign then Morley and Outwood will surely be talked about again, no?

The Tories would probably need to be ahead nationally by more than they were at the last election to come as close in Morley & Outwood as they did last time.

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So who's watching the whole thing the whole way through? I won't be.

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Regarding Progress, there have been certain tensions for a while. If the election is lost there's often a tendency to search for scapegoats and they have recently been better at losing friends than gaining them. Could get nasty.

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There are certain CLPs where the social conservatives are themselves what Canadians would call 'visible minorities'.

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I watched Fortitude instead. Anyway it sounds like it was a wash. Quelle surprise.

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NO ONE WINS DEBATE is not a great headline which is probably why le beeb has gone with LEADERS CLASH. lmao

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'kay.

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lol@themedia

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Viewing figures down quite a way on five years ago.

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Survation's last poll had UKIP on 18% which (as noted already) is notably higher than has been shown by any of the more reputable companies. Frankly they're a very fishy smelling outfit and if they end up getting the final numbers right it will be entirely by accident.

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LIB 9 (+1)

CLEGGMANIA

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Whatever happened to those really obscure (and awful) ones who were around at this time five years ago? BPIX and One Poll may have been their names. Also, what about Harris (one of the better pollsters in days gone by) and the hilarious Angus Reid?

Pollsters that do badly struggle to find new clients, particularly if they don't have an established Name. And actually even if they do they can run into difficulty; such was the end of Gallup in Britain for instance.

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We should set up a dodgy polling company of our own. And do what certain American ones did and blatantly make up numbers. All we'd have to do is follow the crowd!

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Slightly odd story here: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32177315

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What is the Torygraph playing at exactly? What's the goal they're aiming for?

A question worth asking because during election campaigns the Torygraph normally doubles up as a press organ of the Conservative Party and the angle of this story doesn't entirely gel with that. Some of the denials have also been strangely worded.

Adding to the oddness is the substance of the claim itself which generally speaking hardly looks serious; a better example of quite how odd Scottish politics has become in recent decades would be hard to find.

C'est bizarre, non?

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OpiumOpinium/Observer: Labour 33, Con 33, UKIP 14, LDem 7, Greens 7

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YouGov: Con 34, Labour 33, UKIP 13, LDem 10, Nats 5, Greens 4

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Come 8 May, some pollsters are going to look very stupid.

Probably not nearly as stupid as some ended up looking in 2010 though.