UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Gary J]

Quote from: Lief

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I have copied the part of the federal constitution of the Liberal Democrats concerning leadership elections. The United Kingdom party is a federation of the English, Scottish and Welsh parties.

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Nick Clegg is not particularly unpopular within the Liberal Democrats. It is also true that, unless a prospective new leader had advocated breaking up the coalition, they would be in exactly the same political situation Nick Clegg has been in.

No one seriously tried to trigger a contested leadership election during the last Parliament, so Nick Clegg is trying his luck with the electorate in the present general election.

If the general election goes really badly, I expect that there will be a leadership contest in the next few months. Who will be eligible to stand depends upon who is elected to the new House of Commons (as the leader is required to be an MP).

If Nick Clegg retains his seat and the party has say 30 MPs in the next Parliament, there may not be a contested leadership election.

[Gary J]

The pre-merger Liberal Party was more consistently pro-EEC/European Union than either the Labour or Conservative party were.

[Gary J]

Surely another hung parliament must mean the end of FPTP?

Not necessarily. The Conservative and Labour parties both have a very strong self interest in preserving FPTP. Presumably any proportional system would accelerate the decline (and possible fragmentation) of the two largest parties.

[Gary J]

I'm intrigued by the idea of Labour and SNP winning a majority of seats with nowhere near a majority of votes.  Any ideas on what the bare minimum of a total vote share might be needed to pull this off?

It is impossible to say in a relative  majority system, with an as yet unknown number of candidates and votes. The minimum number of votes to win a seat (leaving aside the drawing of lots to break a tie, which I saw happen once in a local election - where dice throws decided who won), is one more vote than the second placed candidate.

I happen to have the official results of the 2001 general election to hand. That includes a table of the seats in rank order of the winning party's share of votes. The range is from 77.8% (Labour in Liverpool Walton) down to 29.7% (SNP in Perth). The vote actually needed to win is not totally predictable in advance.

[Gary J]

The Conservative Party was politically linked with the Ulster Unionist Party until 1974. Since then the UUP has been independent of the Conservatives apart from during an electoral pact at the last general election. In recent years the Conservatives have run their own candidates in Northern Ireland with minimal success.

The British Labour Party has never organised in Northern Ireland. It has some international links with the SDLP, who often co-operate with Labour at Westminster.

The Liberal Democrats do have some members in Northern Ireland, but they have not chosen to nominate candidates. The members involved are usually also members of the Alliance Party, which does present candidates. The Alliance Party has international links with the Liberal Democrats and its peers seem to take the Lib Dem whip in the House of Lords. Naomi Long did not do this in the House of Commons, possibly to distance herself from the coalition.

[Gary J]

Discussion of government formation has to take account that the traditional conventions have been modified by the Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011.

The UK civil service has compiled a document, called The Cabinet Manual, to summarise the law and conventions in various areas including government formation. This part of the manual starts at page 14.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf