UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Diouf]

Any constituencies with a winner between 25-30% this time do we think?

Electionforecast.co.uk predicts that will happen in Carmarthen East and Dinefwr (Plaid 29, Labour 29, Conservatives 21, UKIP 11) and Edinburgh West (Labour 26, SNP 24, Conservative 24, Lib Dems 23)

They predict winners just above 30% in constituencies like Edinburgh North and Leith, Aberdeen South, Watford and Dumfries and Galloway

[Diouf]

In contemporary British political culture, how much does biggest party status count for when forming a government?

There is of course, unlike what Jim Murphy hints at, no requirement for it to happen. Especially since most models predict that the Conservatives and Labour, unlike 2010, won't be very far apart in terms of seats.
For most of the parties who pretty clearly belong to one side or another, e.g. SNP, UKIP, Greens, then it does not matter at all. However, the Lib Dems could do as last time and say that they will start out by talking to the largest party, but perhaps with the result we are looking at, it might make more sense to talk to the largest fraction of parties first. The DUP has not commited to either Labour or the Conservatives yet, and could choose the largest party or largest fraction strategy as well. Their position is discussed here: http://cambridgeglobalist.org/2015/04/16/forget-the-snp-what-about-the-dup/

However, the right-wing media will of course go crazy if Ed forms a government despite the Conservatives being the largest party. Even if there is no real possibility for Cameron to gather a majority.

[Diouf]

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but the website is publicly accessible and has been saying something similar to this for ages.  Nothing has been "revealed" by the Sun on Sunday.

(And whether the forecast is any good, especially at predicting the fortunes of an insurgent party, is an open question.  I find its 0% for UKIP in South Thanet surprising, to say the least.)

Electionforecast.co.uk's model believes very strongly that the results will move towards the 2010 result. They only predict UKIP to get 10,5%, while the Lib Dems are predicted to get 12,6%; their current polling average is 15% and 9% respectively. That's the reason why they only have the SNP at 43 seats as well, while most others have them on 50 or above.

[Diouf]

The 12 seats that right now looks to be the Kingmaker seats; those median seats which could decide who becomes PM. Harrow East, Wirral West, Northampton North, Cannock Chase, Ipswich, City of Chester, Stockton South, Ealing Central and Action, Brighton Kemptown, Keighley, Nuneaton, and Croydon Central. Like most of the opinion polls and election models, they currently point towards Ed Miliband as the next PM as Labour have a lead of 4/5 % in most of them. However, these are typically seats which the Conservatives won by 4-6% in 2010, and they probably need to hold at least half of them, if Cameron is to stay on as PM.

http://www.britishfuture.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/04/The-new-Kingmaker-seats-that-could-decide-the-next-Prime-Minister.final_..pdf

[Diouf]

Regarding the discussion of which seats the SNP might not win

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-these-are-the-13-scottish-seats-the-snp-could-struggle-to-win/

Two fairly likely SNP gains
Dunbartonshire East (Lib Dem-held)
Glenrothes (Labour)

Four Labour seats where the SNP are slight favourites
Renfrewshire East (all Labour-held)
Edinburgh South
Paisley and Renfrewshire North
Coatbridge, Chryston and Bellshill

The four most closely fought seats
Dumfries and Galloway (Labour-held but a Tory and SNP target)
Rutherglen and Hamilton West (Labour-held)
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale (Tory-held; their sole 2010 seat)
Dunfermline and West Fife (Labour-held)

Three seats where the SNP are likely to fall short
Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (Lib Dem-held; a three-way marginal between them, the Tories and SNP)
Glasgow North East (Labour-held)
Orkney and Shetland (Lib Dem-held)

[Diouf]

A great article on why Ed Miliband is the the favourite to become PM on the current polls.

http://may2015.com/featured/election-2015-this-is-how-ed-miliband-gets-to-323-seats-and-becomes-prime-minister/

[Diouf]

Probably not a big surprise, but Nick Clegg now making it quite clear that he will side with the Conservatives again after the election.

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The legitimacy question regarding the biggest party would very likely only be relevant if the Conservatives are the biggest party. It is quite likely that Labour will form a government even if they are not the biggest party, while it's quite difficult to imagine how the Conservatives should be able to form a government if they are not the biggest party. So Nick Clegg will join the right-wing newspapers and the Conservatives in screaming "coup" if Labour forms a government as the second-largest party.
Of course, this is not that relevant if Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander both lose their seats, which is what the constituency polls have suggested so far.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

[Diouf]

In relation to the legitimacy question, the Conservatives & co will have the problem that if Labour + SNP + left wing etc have a majority, then either Cameron will resign or be voted out via a vote of no confidence. So either he will himself have acknowledged defeat or parliament will have shown him it; that should make it somewhat harder for him to claim that he is the winner and the "legitimate" PM. Not that it will stop them from using that attack line, of course.

[Diouf]

So I guess the battle will be which "bloc" will end up bigger: "CON+LD" vs "LAB+SNP+PC+Green".  In that sense even in fairly pessimistic scenarios the center-left bloc will have the upper hand even as CON will more likely than not be the largest party.   Only thing CON hope for now between now and the election is the shy Tory effect and some UKIP voters going to CON tactically. 

They are trying their best. I'm not really sure how well it will work; Farage has made sure to be very negative of Scotland as well with comments about shovelling money over Hadrian's wall and so on.

[Diouf]

Slightly different language than his previous denials to such an extent it can be taken (probably incorrectly) that he'd rather hand the Tories the spoils of the election before a vote has been cast. Not particularly helpful language at this stage in the game.

Good analysis. He managed to say it in a way so that the SNP can argue that he would let in a Conservative government, while the English voters could hear it as him even refusing being PM on the votes of the SNP, which of course he will not and which they won't believe in. Surely, he could have been far more convincing and said that he will put his manifesto forward, and the other parties could vote on it as they pleased. If SNP keeps their word, there will be a majority for raising the minimum wage, the mansion tax etc, and if the Tories keep their word, there will be a majority for renewing trident and so on.

[Diouf]

To me, Miliband constantly denying he will make any deal on paper or not with the SNP makes sense. If he says he'll deal with the SNP, then Scots can flock to the SNP safe in the knowledge that doing so won't be responsible for putting a Tory in 10 Downing. However, by denying he will (despite the fact that, when push comes to shove, he probably will), it plants a seed of doubt into the minds of some potential SNP voters and might make them think twice before ditching Labour.

Well, he is dangerously close to falling between two stools. By trying to lure back a few SNP voters by rejecting deals with them, he can seem disingenious in England where most voters probably realize that he will at least have to sit on SNP's votes. Hearing Miliband speak out against SNP might actually make them believe that something terrible is really about to happen with Labour-SNP since he won't acknowledge having to rely on them to some extent. And in the end, I doubt how many swing Labour/SNP voters actually believe that Miliband would let in Cameron, and even if they do, aren't they just gonna be even more willing to vote SNP because they have a clearer anti-Cameron profile?

I think Miliband should realize that the Scottish stool is broken, and focus on the English stool by laying out in a clearer way how he would act in a minority government. He could even disown Jim Murphy on the constitutional affairs like they did on financial affairs ("The leader of the Scottish Labour Party will not be in charge of the UK budget"); that might even bring back some Labour voters in Scotland and help save their reputation there in the long run. Then Murphy can stop lying about how a government is formed. These repeated lies will remove Murphy's last credibility if Labour forms a government after the election as the 2nd largest party which remains the most likely scenario.

[Diouf]

Mori: Con 35, Lab 30, UKIP 10, Lib Dems 8, Greens 8

Not good for Labour, but also not the first poll in which we have seen a weirdly high Green share.

Oh yeah, and "Others" are on 9...

Please don't be wrong!

The parliament in this case would be truly hung though, no? Neither Con-Lib or Lab-SNP could muster a majority. What would happen then?

When you assign all the minor parties and independents to either "bloc", and Sinn Fein abstain from 5 seats and the speaker is not counted, then you only have one scenario, a 322-322 draw, where there is not a majority for either Miliband or Cameron. In that scenario, I guess that the Lib Dems and/or DUP would cross and support Miliband in the name of stability instead of supporting Cameron which is probably both parties' preferred option.

[Diouf]

Analysis by Loughborough University of positivity/negativity of press coverage, with scores weighted to reflect newspapers’ circulation.
Quite as expected; negative coverage of Labour and SNP have intensified during the campaign, while UKIP is almost being ignored to avoid that they retain and/or attract more (primarily Conservative) voters.

[Diouf]