UK General Election - May 7th 2015 (The Official Campaign Thread)

[Hnv1]

I see the Conservatives are running in 16 of the 18 NI constituencies (with 11 candidates not from NI).

The two constituencies where they are not standing: Fermanagh-South Tyrone and North Belfast.

http://sluggerotoole.com/2015/04/10/one-all-male-constituency-24-candidates-are-female-3-unionist-parties-running-all-male-candidates-ge2015/

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

Any bets for how the paper endorsements going to go this time around?

[Hnv1]

I thought The big 3 don't organize in NI? since when did that policy change

In the case of the Conservatives in the late 1980s (see ObserverIE's post) although before 1974 the Ulster Unionist Party was technically the NI wing of the Conservative Party. That particular weird little project basically folded by the middle of the 1990s only to be somewhat revived under David Cameron's leadership; the UUP and the Tories ran on a joint slate in 2010 with UUP candidates in some constituencies and Tory ones in others (none were elected). This also resulted in the last UUP MP (left-leaning Sylvia Hermon) to leave the UUP and to seek re-election (successfully) as an Independent Unionist. All of which was rather embarrassing.

Labour's organisational position wrt Northern Ireland is messy. Essentially there is a conflict between the Republican sympathies of many Labour politicians, members and voters over here (which meant that until very recently it was not possible to join the Labour Party if you lived in Northern Ireland), and the fact that most of the people in Northern Ireland who have an interest in politics Labour Party style are notably lacking in Republican tendencies. Before the fall of Stormont this wasn't a big deal because such people could just join the Northern Ireland Labour Party, which was entirely independent from the Labour Party in organisational terms but which had identical policies on most issues. After the NILP collapsed as the civil war intensified in the 1970s, the issue opened up again. The official Labour line until literally a few years ago was that supporters in Northern Ireland could just join the SDLP which, after all, is a fellow PES member and so on (when Kevin McNamara was Labour's NI spokesman - 1987-94 - this position was repeated with particular vehemence). Given that the SDLP is a Nationalist party this did not go down particularly well. In 2004 the small band of campaigners who had been very insistent on this finally got their way; Labour Party membership in Northern Ireland is now allowed. Except that (and much to the annoyance of NI Labour) they are not allowed to run candidates for anything.

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The Telegraph, The Times, The Mail and The Sun will all doubtless endorse the Conservatives, while The Mirror will certainly endorse Labour. The Guardian and The Independent will presumably call for a change in government although we'll have to see whether that will add up to an actual endorsement of Labour. The FT has natural Tory leanings but also has a surprisingly large Labour-ish element high up in the paper, so it's hard to call. The Express had seemed certain to endorse UKIP, but has been running more pro-Tory headlines of late which might indicate a return to tradition.

Cheers for the thorough summary! what is the LibDem stance over NI? I know the liberals were always ok with devolution and were in government thanks to the IN back in the days.

Regarding the papers, that's exactly what I thought (though I'm sure Guardian will come around for Miliband and the independent will say anything but Tories). I assume the FT prefer Blarites rather than old Labour considering their Keynesian tendencies. I'm still perplexed about why Labour circles were unable to form a quality paper for the past 100 years, though their weekly publications are great.

[Hnv1]

I will say right now that a Labour defeat would almost certainly not be down to Miliband, the SNP or Lynton Crosby. It would be down to trendy middle-class liberal leftists who obsess about global warming, UKIP and marijuana on a daily basis.

I think you vastly overestimate the influence of hispters on the electorate...

Specifically, I'm thinking of the way such people will vote and why. Nothing against the Greens per se, but I do have somewhat of an issue with those who vote for them because Labour is too working-class or, dare I use this word, 'normal'. I encounter such people on a daily basis, and while they are not bad people, their approach to politics leaves much to be desired. The same can be said of those who jumped onto the Clegg bandwagon in 2010.

Yeah tons of people say they're voting green to shake up the system, or because labour isn't left wing enough.

bar for the SP I think Labour is the leftiest of the European large centre-left parties. anyway green voters would be unimportant if Labour could tear the left side of the LD back in

[Hnv1]

Um...

What about monster raving loony? still running this time?

[Hnv1]

Monster Raving Loony is running in 16 constituencies.

FF

[Hnv1]

Probably not a big surprise, but Nick Clegg now making it quite clear that he will side with the Conservatives again after the election.

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The legitimacy question regarding the biggest party would very likely only be relevant if the Conservatives are the biggest party. It is quite likely that Labour will form a government even if they are not the biggest party, while it's quite difficult to imagine how the Conservatives should be able to form a government if they are not the biggest party. So Nick Clegg will join the right-wing newspapers and the Conservatives in screaming "coup" if Labour forms a government as the second-largest party.
Of course, this is not that relevant if Nick Clegg and Danny Alexander both lose their seats, which is what the constituency polls have suggested so far.

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/2/fd3b7bec-ea97-11e4-8c7e-00144feab7de.html#axzz3YG2FI5JE

is that wise? I assume any LD voters of the left section will be poised to vote labour this time with most of the right section seeing no difference with the Tories. 

[Hnv1]

I'm just imagining a conversation going something like this:

"Which football team did we decide he was going to support when we were trying to make him a man of the people?"

"Wasn't it that one who play in claret and blue?"

"West Ham?  Yeah, that's it."

claret and blue? hint of the future UKIP-Tory coalition?
I hope he won't appoint Tim Sherwood to cabinet to compensate bitter Villa supporters...

[Hnv1]

Green 93%
Labour 92%
SNP 92%
Lib-Dem 86%
Ukip 53%
Tory 30%

If I were a Briton I'de vote Labour, though due to my personal disdain for monarchies I might be tempted to support a party which promises to abolish it