Why didn't Obama win by a bigger margin in 2008?

[IceSpear]

As we all know, Obama won a comfortable mandate in the popular vote and a mini landslide in the electoral college. But if you actually look at all the factors in the election, shouldn't he have won by an even bigger margin?

- Extremely unpopular incumbent Republican president, hovering around 25% approval.
- Quagmire in Iraq that the vast majority of Americans were against. Obama wanted to end it, McCain wanted to continue it.
- McCain picks the widely mocked and incompetent Sarah Palin as his VP, who can't even answer simple questions.
- Economy collapses less than two months before the election, which is widely blamed on the Republicans.
- The media was solidly on Obama's side.
- Historic minority turnout and enthusiasm for electing the first black president.
- Massive fundraising advantage for Obama.

Considering all these factors, shouldn't this have been more a 60-40 election as opposed to a 53-46 one? Two easy answers are a) increased polarization and b) whites who would've had no problem voting for a Clinton or an Edwards balking at Obama. But was there more to it than that?

I think an underrated factor is McCain's personal popularity. Even when McCain was at his lowest he was still viewed favorably by most of the public, which led to the unusual situation of the majority of the public viewing both candidates favorably. Quite a contrast from 2016 so far, where every potential candidate is disliked besides Hillary (who is only narrowly on positive ground herself.)

So if Obama's race and McCain's personal popularity were major factors, would we have possibly gotten an 84-esque (or at least 88-esque) election if it was something like Edwards vs. Romney? (assuming Rielle Hunter never happened, of course.)

Any other ideas?

[solarstorm]

You do know the answer...

[IceSpear]

That's actually an interesting theory. I never bought into the whole "primary makes you stronger" theory. The conventional wisdom is that fierce primaries ALWAYS weaken a candidate, and the only counterexample I've ever seen is the 2008 D primary. But one could very easily make the case that Obama would've been in much better shape had he locked down the nomination by Super Tuesday.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

With political polarization and McCain's personal favorability, the result is about what one would expect.

[Indy Texas]

We don't live in an era when it's within the realm of possibility for a candidate from either party to get more than maybe 55% of the vote in a national race.

There are too many people who will only vote for one party under any circumstances, and those people tend to feel a lot more strongly about that conviction than similar people during most of the last century.

[Ebsy]

Obama would have won Missouri if he wasn't black.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

You have to wonder why Obama couldn't win by Harding's margin given things were equally unfavorable for the incumbents in 1920 and 2008. People will say polarization, but I'll say...

1. McCain well-liked and respected...another GOP candidate probably would've done worse
2. Obama didn't exactly hit a home run in any of the debates
3. Palin was probably a wash in all honesty...rallied the base (who didn't like McCain much) while alienating swing voters
4. Maybe some concern about Obama's inexperience? National security was still on people's minds less than a decade since 9/11, though it obviously it took a back seat to domestic issues

[Rockefeller GOP]

Obama would have won Missouri if he wasn't black.

You think there are that many racist Democrats in Missouri?

[Flake]

Obama would have won Missouri if he wasn't black.

You think there are that many racist Democrats in Missouri?

I wouldn't be surprised if 3,903+ people didn't vote for Obama in Missouri due to his skin color.

[Blair]

+McCain could claim to be anti-bush, he still had the 'maverick' label (although it was falling off)
+Obama was untested, not as experienced, and a black from an inner city.
+ Polarization, even an awful republican like Brownback or Huckabee would get 40-43% on the vote on the basis of having an R next to there name
+ Above stops a landslide, states like Utah/Wyoming aren't going to flip blue

[bobloblaw]

Obama would have won Missouri if he wasn't black.

You think there are that many racist Democrats in Missouri?

There were a number of states where Obama did worse than Kerry, so the only answer is racist Democrats

[CountryClassSF]

That's actually an interesting theory. I never bought into the whole "primary makes you stronger" theory. The conventional wisdom is that fierce primaries ALWAYS weaken a candidate, and the only counterexample I've ever seen is the 2008 D primary. But one could very easily make the case that Obama would've been in much better shape had he locked down the nomination by Super Tuesday.

I think the theory has some merit. However, the candidates both have to be liked by the base, as Hillary and Obama were.  This alone increases turnout combined with a competitive race. It's good preparation for the general.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

- The media was solidly on Obama's side.

What???

[Rockefeller GOP]

- The media was solidly on Obama's side.

What???

... How could you disagree - that IF the media had "chosen" a side - that it was Obama's?

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

- The media was solidly on Obama's side.

What???

With the exception of FOX News, the media was certainly on his side.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

- The media was solidly on Obama's side.

What???

With the exception of FOX News, the media was certainly on his side.

You must be joking, right?

I don't think I've ever seen the media so opposed to a major party's presidential nominee, except Dukakis in 1988. And of course Obama in 2012.

[Rockefeller GOP]

- The media was solidly on Obama's side.

What???

With the exception of FOX News, the media was certainly on his side.

You must be joking, right?

I don't think I've ever seen the media so opposed to a major party's presidential nominee, except Dukakis in 1988. And of course Obama in 2012.

Okay, this has got to be a joke.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

- The media was solidly on Obama's side.

What???

With the exception of FOX News, the media was certainly on his side.

You must be joking, right?

I don't think I've ever seen the media so opposed to a major party's presidential nominee, except Dukakis in 1988. And of course Obama in 2012.

Okay, this has got to be a joke.

IIRC this guy thought that Bush only won Kentucky in 2004 because of voter suppression.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Barack Hussein Osama won on the backs of the secu-Socialist allience of Hell who bewitched the good Christian folk of the USA to stay home and watch Bravo!.  No good God-fearin' Christian would cast a ballot for that demonic monkey.  His victory could not possibly be higher!

[Sumner 1868]

Barack Hussein Osama won on the backs of the secu-Socialist allience of Hell who bewitched the good Christian folk of the USA to stay home and watch Bravo!.  No good God-fearin' Christian would cast a ballot for that demonic monkey.  His victory could not possibly be higher!

Are you for real?

[Sumner 1868]

Barack Hussein Osama won on the backs of the secu-Socialist allience of Hell who bewitched the good Christian folk of the USA to stay home and watch Bravo!.  No good God-fearin' Christian would cast a ballot for that demonic monkey.  His victory could not possibly be higher!

Are you for real?

Oh, never mind, I didn't recognize you at first. Congratulations, you got me. April Fools.

[Rockefeller GOP]

Barack Hussein Osama won on the backs of the secu-Socialist allience of Hell who bewitched the good Christian folk of the USA to stay home and watch Bravo!.  No good God-fearin' Christian would cast a ballot for that demonic monkey.  His victory could not possibly be higher!

Are you for real?

Oh, never mind, I didn't recognize you at first. Congratulations, you got me. April Fools.

Hopefully this is just an April Fool's thing, or it'll get old fast.

[buritobr]

The media is usually on the side of the candidate we dislike

[RFayette]

Because Obama is a Saul Alinsky socialist Muslim atheist who hates my Bible, my guns, and my freedoms!

[SingingAnalyst]

The 7% of voters whose primary concern was terrorism went 86-13 for McCain. Had Obama been able to neutralize this issue among this 7% without alienating his other supporters, he would have won more like 56-43.