2008: Edwards vs. Romney

[IceSpear]

An idea I got from my other thread. Assume the Rielle Hunter thing never happened. My guess:

Edwards - 446
Romney - 92

[Attorney General, LGC Speaker, and Former PPT Dwarven Dragon]

You're underestimating just how partisan the deep republican states are, and Obama had a slight favorite son effect in IN that Edwards wouldn't have. I have a TON of trouble seeing anything worse for Romney than this:

[Mr. Smith]

More like

 Colorado Springs and all the same factors that gave Dole the state in '96 would probably come into play again in Romney's favor regarding Colorado

I see the Populist effect along with Romney having property in New Hampshire putting that state blue

Arizona has a good retiree and an FLDS population to keep it GOP for a good amount of time longer than many think.

WV and Tennessee are probably the perfect target for someone with Edwards message, and I reckon Byrd, Almost-Senator Ford, and maybe even Zell Miller would do a lot more to campaign for Edwards to give him adequate Southern support.

Arkansas is probably very narrowly lost though.

[Thunderbird is the word]

You're underestimating just how partisan the deep republican states are, and Obama had a slight favorite son effect in IN that Edwards wouldn't have. I have a TON of trouble seeing anything worse for Romney than this:

West Virginia and Arkansas probably still would have gone for a white Democrat in 08, especially someone like Edwards.

[IceSpear]

You also have to take into account that Romney would be literally the worst candidate to have after the economic collapse.

[NeverAgain]

Uh, I doubt TN would have gone Democratic. It would have been close, but...

Remember, Romney was NOT popular in the south. Then you have a Southern candidate facing him, there would not have been much appeal for him, as there was for him in 2012. My opinion at least.

[Thunderbird is the word]

There's no way that Romney would have won states like Arkansas by as huge a margin as he did in 2012 against any white Democrat.

[TheElectoralBoobyPrize]

Uh, I doubt TN would have gone Democratic. It would have been close, but...

Remember, Romney was NOT popular in the south. Then you have a Southern candidate facing him, there would not have been much appeal for him, as there was for him in 2012. My opinion at least.

I think TN is just too much of a stretch even considering it bordered Edwards' home state. Edwards wasn't that popular in North Carolina...he only won one statewide election narrowly ten years ago. Without the financial crisis, we would've had a situation where both major party candidates lost their home state.

[Indy Texas]

This would be Edwards running the table and having everything go right for him and everything go wrong for Mitt and the GOP:

[Rockefeller GOP]

You're underestimating just how partisan the deep republican states are, and Obama had a slight favorite son effect in IN that Edwards wouldn't have. I have a TON of trouble seeing anything worse for Romney than this:

Well, WV and AR weren't even close to deep Republican states in 2008, and you both have them going to Romney over a Southern Democrat.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Just in the GOP primary I remember Romney being pretty unpopular in the Deep South. Under OTL circumstances I think that outside of Alabama, Mississippi and Oklahoma the entire south would be in play.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Edwards-Sebelius   498
Romney-Pawlentey  40

[Dancing with Myself]

Edwards/Obama-407

Romney/Brownback-131



Two things happen:

1.Obama doesn't run, decides against Reid and Co wanting more expeience.

2.Edwards either doesn't sleep with Hunter or they do a better job hiding it.


Hillary still runs a mediocre campaign of bragging about stuff while not finishing. Edwards runs a mix of a Bill Clinton '92/Obama '08 style and has a battle with her simular to how Barry did in '08. Wins the nom about the same time once he wins in NC.  McCain either doesn't run due to health issues or just doesn't want it anymore. Romney battles Huckabee for the nom and wins every area except the south. 

Edwards wants to stand out so he is down to either Obama, Biden, or Bayh. He decides Obama thanks to recognizing his love affair with some groups and pestering by Reid.  Romney angers many on the Republican side by picking Sam Brownback, who despite appealing to the conservatives doesn't do much to appeal to the moderates. Plus being from Kansas doesn't give the ticket an edge anywhere besides the bible belt.

Campaign goes like '08 in RL. Romney makes himself look foolish and out of touch with a similar economy gafe like McCain made. Edwards runs a campaign like the Dems ran in 08 but with a hard focus on the south, who didn't like Romney at all in the primaries.

On election day Edwards destroys Romney everywhere and the Dems do well in both houses.

[Kingpoleon]

Romney/McCain won't lose Arkansas and Tennessee.

Arkansas and Tennessee are literally Deep Rebulican in 2008 - they were 27% and 22% more Republican than the nation as a whole, respectively.

That said, Romney has one of McCain, Huckabee, or Lieberman, as a running-mate. None of them could lose Arkansas or Tennessee. If Edwards wins by twelve to fourteen percent, which is extremely, extremely unlikely, Georgia will flip. Also, if Edwards runs with a Southerner, then Romney might pick Lieberman to pick up places North - New Hampshire, Connecticut, Ohio, Indiana, and Pennsylvania were much easier to flip than any state in the South.

[VPH]

410-128

[Thunderbird is the word]

Romney/McCain won't lose Arkansas and Tennessee.

Arkansas and Tennessee are literally Deep Rebulican in 2008 - they were 27% and 22% more Republican than the nation as a whole, respectively.

Only because Obama was the nominee. Keep in mind that Mark Pryor won that year in an unopposed landslide and the Democrats only collapsed in the past five years.

[Kingpoleon]

Romney/McCain won't lose Arkansas and Tennessee.

Arkansas and Tennessee are literally Deep Rebulican in 2008 - they were 27% and 22% more Republican than the nation as a whole, respectively.

Only because Obama was the nominee. Keep in mind that Mark Pryor won that year in an unopposed landslide and the Democrats only collapsed in the past five years.

I resent you informing me that over a third of my state's Republicans were/are racist.

Mark Pryor won because of (1) a terrible opponent and (2) his "endorsement" by our dominant Hutchinson family. He wasn't endorsed, but their current people managed his campaign. If they wanted to, they could have crushed him like the family has our state Democratic Party. The main reason they didn't was to focus on getting the rest of the state under the Republican control.

[Thunderbird is the word]

Romney/McCain won't lose Arkansas and Tennessee.

Arkansas and Tennessee are literally Deep Rebulican in 2008 - they were 27% and 22% more Republican than the nation as a whole, respectively.

Only because Obama was the nominee. Keep in mind that Mark Pryor won that year in an unopposed landslide and the Democrats only collapsed in the past five years.

I resent you informing me that over a third of my state's Republicans were/are racist.

Mark Pryor won because of (1) a terrible opponent and (2) his "endorsement" by our dominant Hutchinson family. He wasn't endorsed, but their current people managed his campaign. If they wanted to, they could have crushed him like the family has our state Democratic Party. The main reason they didn't was to focus on getting the rest of the state under the Republican control.

What other explanation do you have for how far and fast Arkansas shifted to the right?

[Kingpoleon]

Romney/McCain won't lose Arkansas and Tennessee.

Arkansas and Tennessee are literally Deep Rebulican in 2008 - they were 27% and 22% more Republican than the nation as a whole, respectively.

Only because Obama was the nominee. Keep in mind that Mark Pryor won that year in an unopposed landslide and the Democrats only collapsed in the past five years.

I resent you informing me that over a third of my state's Republicans were/are racist.

Mark Pryor won because of (1) a terrible opponent and (2) his "endorsement" by our dominant Hutchinson family. He wasn't endorsed, but their current people managed his campaign. If they wanted to, they could have crushed him like the family has our state Democratic Party. The main reason they didn't was to focus on getting the rest of the state under the Republican control.

What other explanation do you have for how far and fast Arkansas shifted to the right?

Tom Cotton is like Lindsey Graham, Asa Hutchinson took the Medicaid expansion, and Mike Beebe had 55%+ approval ratings as he left office.

Lastly, Clinton and Tucker were scandal-filled Governors.