Rauner's approval rating at 36%
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  Rauner's approval rating at 36%
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Author Topic: Rauner's approval rating at 36%  (Read 3230 times)
muon2
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« Reply #25 on: April 01, 2015, 09:51:01 PM »
« edited: April 01, 2015, 09:54:55 PM by muon2 »

Seems like a garbage poll.

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Ok, so 100 - 31.4 who don't approve - 23.1 who don't know sh!t = 45.5. What do the other 9% think? This seems poorly done in any case, as a poll taken of a newly-elected Governor shouldn't have so many iffy people in it; nobody really cares what non-voters think.

     At least they had the courtesy of giving tenths of a percentage point, so we can tell immediately that the poll is garbage and to be ignored.

Hey PiT, you should know that a measured value of 45.5% ± 3.1% is an acceptable measurement. Two significant figures are widely used to quote errors. For example the current official value of the mass of the muon is 105.6583715 ± 0.0000035 MeV. The error on most polls should include one decimal point, so there's nothing wrong with decimal points on poll results as along as the reader understands the nature of the quoted error.
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Miles
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« Reply #26 on: April 01, 2015, 09:56:10 PM »

No surprise; surely the people regret voting their champion out of office.
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Associate Justice PiT
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« Reply #27 on: April 01, 2015, 10:35:56 PM »

Seems like a garbage poll.

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Ok, so 100 - 31.4 who don't approve - 23.1 who don't know sh!t = 45.5. What do the other 9% think? This seems poorly done in any case, as a poll taken of a newly-elected Governor shouldn't have so many iffy people in it; nobody really cares what non-voters think.

     At least they had the courtesy of giving tenths of a percentage point, so we can tell immediately that the poll is garbage and to be ignored.

Hey PiT, you should know that a measured value of 45.5% ± 3.1% is an acceptable measurement. Two significant figures are widely used to quote errors. For example the current official value of the mass of the muon is 105.6583715 ± 0.0000035 MeV. The error on most polls should include one decimal point, so there's nothing wrong with decimal points on poll results as along as the reader understands the nature of the quoted error.

     How come then polls that give decimal places are typically crummy? Tongue
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muon2
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« Reply #28 on: April 01, 2015, 10:47:44 PM »

Seems like a garbage poll.

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Ok, so 100 - 31.4 who don't approve - 23.1 who don't know sh!t = 45.5. What do the other 9% think? This seems poorly done in any case, as a poll taken of a newly-elected Governor shouldn't have so many iffy people in it; nobody really cares what non-voters think.

     At least they had the courtesy of giving tenths of a percentage point, so we can tell immediately that the poll is garbage and to be ignored.

Hey PiT, you should know that a measured value of 45.5% ± 3.1% is an acceptable measurement. Two significant figures are widely used to quote errors. For example the current official value of the mass of the muon is 105.6583715 ± 0.0000035 MeV. The error on most polls should include one decimal point, so there's nothing wrong with decimal points on poll results as along as the reader understands the nature of the quoted error.

     How come then polls that give decimal places are typically crummy? Tongue

The problem is how journalists use them. Many raw polls give decimal points on their top line results. Writers often don't understand the meaning of a margin of error or rounding. The linked story is a good example - it reported decimal points on the top line but rounded the error to 3%. That is bad use of statistics. Good reporters round both numbers since they can assume their readers aren't going to derive any benefit from the decimal points and aren't going to interpret the error correctly. Many pollsters save journalists the trouble of interpreting the results and do the rounding before releasing the data.

In this article two different polls are quoted. The first one is a university poll from the Paul Simon institute at SIU, and they always quote decimal points in their releases. The second one is from Ogden and Fry, and like many private firms they round the decimals before they publish the results.
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Mr. Illini
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« Reply #29 on: April 02, 2015, 12:20:45 PM »

I honestly think his election was a fluke. Illinois will have enough sense to fire Scott Walker Rauner 3 years from now.
I wouldn't count on it.

Illinois has a long history of electing Republicans as Governors, and had a longer streak than Massachusetts from 1977-2003. In the past 50 years, the only times the Democrats have won a majority of the vote were 1972 and 2002. 2006 Blago was unpopular and already scandal-ridden, but the Democratic wave that year probably saved him. In 2010, Republicans nominated a garbage candidate when they should've won easily.

If Hillary is President, I can see him skirting by in an inverse-2010 in 2018 if it's another low turnout Republican midterm wave, and he maintains his numbers in the suburbs (though even then, I wouldn't bet on it, personally).

Illinois isn't completely gone for Republicans at the state level, despite all the hate he gets from the red avatars on this forum.

1) It isn't 2003. The suburbs are much less Republican than they were even 10 years ago.

2) In 2006, Blago was unpopular and scandal-ridden and still won, and it has nothing to do with the wave. Topinka was a popular GOP candidate, Green candidate Rich Whitney got 10% of the Democrat protest vote, and the Dem still pulled out the win.

3) Saying Republicans would've won easily in the 2010 gov is like saying Mark Kirk won easily. Kirk was a popular Pub running against a terrible Dem in a big GOP wave year, and Kirk still won by a very narrow margin.

4) The suburbs like Rauner, yes, but they like Lisa Madigan more. You're forgetting that in one case Rauner was running as Not Pat Quinn and now he'll have to actually be his own candidate and not only that, he'll have to try and beat a good challenger, whoever that may be. Hopefully Madigan.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #30 on: April 03, 2015, 02:03:11 PM »

I honestly think his election was a fluke. Illinois will have enough sense to fire Scott Walker Rauner 3 years from now. Maybe I should move to Illinois and run for State Senate in 2016.

WOLVERINE22 FOR SENATE: Shut down Rauner, take back Illinois

Democrats have done so well with Illinois.  Like, a superb job.  They should rule for life!!

This poll is a fluke, if anything.
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CountryClassSF
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« Reply #31 on: April 05, 2015, 08:49:35 PM »

Disapproval is lower. did ya forget that little tidbit? lol
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