FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Hillary strong in OH, weaker in FL and PA
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  FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Hillary strong in OH, weaker in FL and PA
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Author Topic: FL/OH/PA-Quinnipiac: Hillary strong in OH, weaker in FL and PA  (Read 3808 times)
MT Treasurer
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« on: March 31, 2015, 05:02:27 AM »
« edited: March 31, 2015, 05:34:06 AM by IndyRep »

Florida

Bush: 45%
Clinton: 42%


Rubio: 44%
Clinton: 46%

Paul: 43%
Clinton: 46%

Christie: 39%
Clinton: 44%

Huckabee: 40%
Clinton: 48%

Walker: 40%
Clinton: 46%

Cruz: 39%
Clinton: 48%

Ohio

Clinton: 46%
Paul: 41%


Clinton: 47%
Bush: 38%

Clinton: 45%
Christie: 39%

Clinton: 49%
Huckabee: 39%

Clinton: 47%
Rubio: 38%

Clinton: 49%
Walker: 38%

Clinton: 48%
Cruz: 38%

Pennsylvania

Paul: 45%
Clinton: 44%


Christie: 40%
Clinton: 45%

Bush: 40%
Clinton: 46%

Huckabee: 41%
Clinton: 47%

Rubio: 42%
Clinton: 46%

Walker: 41%
Clinton: 46%

Cruz: 39%
Clinton: 48%

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/images/polling/sw/ps03312015_sgt63kd.pdf
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #1 on: March 31, 2015, 05:51:02 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2015, 06:08:31 AM by IndyRep »

I guess there is hope for the GOP in PA after all (though we need more polls to confirm this, obviously). However, PA + OH + FL added to the Romney states would mean a Republican victory. Not THAT implausible, really. CO, WI, IA, VA, NH and NV would become irrelevant in such a scenario. It seems as if the Parties' Convention Choices were reasonable choices, after all.

Bad news for Hillary: FL voters think that Hillary Clinton is not honest and trustworthy (50-41), PA voters also think so (49-44). Ohio voters are split (47% say she is "honest and trustworthy", 46% don't think so).
Compare that to Jeb Bush: FL voters think he is honest and trustworthy by a wide margin (54-35), PA (45-36) and OH voters (42-34) think so too.
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King
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« Reply #2 on: March 31, 2015, 07:10:46 AM »

There is never hope for the GOP in PA.
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #3 on: March 31, 2015, 07:16:59 AM »

There is never hope for the GOP in PA.

I wonder if it would be that much harder to win than OH? Doubt it. Republicans should definitely contest it if it's a close election. Although it could be that those Quinnipiac PA numbers are outliers (especially when you compare it to the OH numbers), who knows...
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Former Democrat
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« Reply #4 on: March 31, 2015, 07:23:07 AM »

PA is winnable but OH will go first red
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Gallium
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« Reply #5 on: March 31, 2015, 07:33:38 AM »

That 20 point swing for Paul in PA is ridiculous. Not sure if that's a result of his unusual elasticity in polls or a sampling error here.

Good numbers for Clinton, especially in Ohio, considering how relentless the negative media coverage has been for the past month.
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Free Bird
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« Reply #6 on: March 31, 2015, 08:18:51 AM »

I think we are all missing the bigger picture. These are sub-Obama 12 numbers, a whole year and a half before the election and before most get the bigger picture on the GOPers
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henster
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« Reply #7 on: March 31, 2015, 09:04:05 AM »

Hillary is a deeply flawed candidate her baggage will bring her down.
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Brewer
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« Reply #8 on: March 31, 2015, 09:20:37 AM »

There is never hope for the GOP in PA.

This. But y'all can keep dreaming.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #9 on: March 31, 2015, 09:33:51 AM »
« Edited: March 31, 2015, 09:38:43 AM by Ebsy »

We'll see what the other polls have to say

Edit: Actually, it isn't all bad for Clinton. She's leading Bush by a lot in Ohio and Pennsylvania and within the margin of error in Florida, where Bush is strongest.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #10 on: March 31, 2015, 09:59:09 AM »

No surprises here, Clinton beating Jeb, is reliant on Clinton crossing 270 with OH and CO bellweathers, rather than FLA. For a 290 electoral vote victory.
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #11 on: March 31, 2015, 10:01:13 AM »

Hillary is a deeply flawed candidate her baggage will bring her down.

Aren't you tired of posting the same message in every thread?
You don't like Clinton, we got that after the first 20 times.
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DemPGH
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« Reply #12 on: March 31, 2015, 10:09:33 AM »

Okay, no, she's not losing Pennsylvania. Maybe FL, but not PA, no.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: March 31, 2015, 10:16:19 AM »


Hillary is a deeply flawed candidate her baggage will bring her down.

She is holding up against Jeb in crucial states of NV and OHIO, that matters the most.
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King
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« Reply #14 on: March 31, 2015, 10:20:52 AM »

King's First Rule of Elections: If George W. Bush did not win it in 2000/2004, 2016 GOP nominee hasn't a snowballs chance in hell.
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henster
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« Reply #15 on: March 31, 2015, 10:22:46 AM »


Hillary is a deeply flawed candidate her baggage will bring her down.

She is holding up against Jeb in crucial states of NV and OHIO, that matters the most.


And what if Jeb isn't the nominee?
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henster
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« Reply #16 on: March 31, 2015, 10:23:21 AM »

I'm more concerned that she's trailing Rand Paul in PA.
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Devils30
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« Reply #17 on: March 31, 2015, 10:32:50 AM »

Not a single other pollster is showing fluctuations the way Q is. Q also cheated in their final Colorado poll when they cut Gardner's lead. PA will go blue before Ohio and the negative campaigning against another Bush will be Hillary's card.
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henster
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« Reply #18 on: March 31, 2015, 10:35:54 AM »

Not a single other pollster is showing fluctuations the way Q is. Q also cheated in their final Colorado poll when they cut Gardner's lead. PA will go blue before Ohio and the negative campaigning against another Bush will be Hillary's card.

People just assume Bush will be the nominee, why? What if Walker or Rubio is the nominee what will Hillary's 'card' be? Without Bush Hillary will be the dynasty against some fresh face Republican nominee.
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Devils30
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« Reply #19 on: March 31, 2015, 10:47:17 AM »

PA is an even party ID in this poll. It's usually one with a D edge even in bad years so I'm skeptical of this sample. Hillary will probably run on Walker being too right wing. If it's Rubio it makes sense to try to connect with white working class voters on economic issues and hit Rubio for his endless waffling on immigration
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IceSpear
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« Reply #20 on: March 31, 2015, 02:06:12 PM »

What's with the OH and PA numbers? They're completely incompatible with each other. I guess time will tell if PA has had a massive shift to the right and likewise OH to the left, but I'm skeptical.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #21 on: March 31, 2015, 02:36:55 PM »

What's with the OH and PA numbers? They're completely incompatible with each other. I guess time will tell if PA has had a massive shift to the right and likewise OH to the left, but I'm skeptical.
Pennsylvania didn't shift to the right. Clinton leads all the other Republicans other than Paul rather comfortably. I have no idea why Paul is leading in the state when the other Republicans are faring poorly.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #22 on: March 31, 2015, 02:43:34 PM »

Winning two of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is clearly enough for Hillary Clinton even without Colorado and Virginia. The Republican must win two of the three to have anywhere near an even change of winning the Presidency; all three seals it for the Republican.

So it's 'choose how to lose' for Republicans.   
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #23 on: March 31, 2015, 09:48:13 PM »

Winning two of Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is clearly enough for Hillary Clinton even without Colorado and Virginia. The Republican must win two of the three to have anywhere near an even change of winning the Presidency; all three seals it for the Republican.

So it's 'choose how to lose' for Republicans.    

Clinton will win CO, NV, NH and PA and IA for 272, but OHiO is a must win state because along with NM, it has correctly picked the popular vote winner and electoral vote winner since 1976, and NM is part of the 272 firewall as well.
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Devils30
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« Reply #24 on: March 31, 2015, 10:40:44 PM »

Biggest problem for GOP is that Walker is a bad fit for Florida and Jeb is an even worse fit for Ohio. None of them are a good fit for Virginia.
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