MD-Sen Dem primary: county map.

[Senator Cris]

What does the map look like?

[warandwar]

A lot like Maryland.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Edwards winning Prince Cnty, Van Hollen winning everywhere else, strong in Annapolis area, where military base is located at.

[Flake]

I think Edwards wins, but by some razor thin margin.



Edwards: 50.12%
Van Hollen: 49.88%

[Vega]

I just realized this, but VanHollen can't run for his House seat if he looses the primary, can he?

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Van Hollen will win by about 5% and the map will be fairly similar to the Cardin vs. Mfume map from 2006 except that Edwards will probably do worse than Mfume in Baltimore City since the Maryland African-American establishment hates her (as do many in the CBC), Van Hollen will crack 60% in Montgomery County, and Van Hollen will run about 5-15% ahead of Cardin the more conservative rural and suburban counties.  

I think Edwards wins, but by some razor thin margin.



Edwards: 50.12%
Van Hollen: 49.88%

Edwards will be extremely lucky if she can manage to get over 40% in Montgomery County, she certainly won't win there even if she wins the primary.  There's also no way she'll come even remotely close to winning any Eastern Shore counties.

[they don't love you like i love you]

She could win some Eastern Shore counties where the Democratic electorate is majority black.

[Flake]

She could win some Eastern Shore counties where the Democratic electorate is majority black.

That's what I was trying to get at .

Maybe I should've had my handy dandy census files next to me

[Gass3268]

Need to wait and see if a Baltimore candidate jumps in.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

why does the CBC hate her?

She doesn't play very well with others in general from what I've read and is a bit of a lone wolf type, she apparently showed no interest in working with its members on the caucus' priorities until about a month before she announced her candidacy, and some folks are still mad that she unseated Al Wynn who was apparently very well liked within the CBC despite being too conservative for his district.  This is why many members of the CBC want Cummings to run (to ensure that Edwards doesn't win).

[warandwar]

why does the CBC hate her?

She doesn't play very well with others in general from what I've read and is a bit of a lone wolf type, she apparently showed no interest in working with its members on the caucus' priorities until about a month before she announced her candidacy, and some folks are still mad that she unseated Al Wynn who was apparently very well liked within the CBC despite being too conservative for his district.  This is why many members of the CBC want Cummings to run (to ensure that Edwards doesn't win).

The reason people want Cummings to run isn't to prevent Edwards from winning.
In a 2-way race, Edwards will certainly win some Eastern Shore counties. Somerset and Kent for sure.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

why does the CBC hate her?

She doesn't play very well with others in general from what I've read and is a bit of a lone wolf type, she apparently showed no interest in working with its members on the caucus' priorities until about a month before she announced her candidacy, and some folks are still mad that she unseated Al Wynn who was apparently very well liked within the CBC despite being too conservative for his district.  This is why many members of the CBC want Cummings to run (to ensure that Edwards doesn't win).

The reason people want Cummings to run isn't to prevent Edwards from winning.
In a 2-way race, Edwards will certainly win some Eastern Shore counties. Somerset and Kent for sure.

It's certainly the reason most of the CBC has been lobbying him to run, although I will grant you that some Baltimore-area politicians also want a candidate from that area to be the nominee, although even then stopping Edwards is still a significant factor.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Edwards need to win this race, especially since Reid has retired. I am now in Edwards camp.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Van Hollen will win by about 5% and the map will be fairly similar to the Cardin vs. Mfume map from 2006 except that Edwards will probably do worse than Mfume in Baltimore City since the Maryland African-American establishment hates her (as do many in the CBC), Van Hollen will crack 60% in Montgomery County, and Van Hollen will run about 5-15% ahead of Cardin the more conservative rural and suburban counties.  

I think Edwards wins, but by some razor thin margin.



Edwards: 50.12%
Van Hollen: 49.88%

Edwards will be extremely lucky if she can manage to get over 40% in Montgomery County, she certainly won't win there even if she wins the primary.  There's also no way she'll come even remotely close to winning any Eastern Shore counties.

[warandwar]

why does the CBC hate her?

She doesn't play very well with others in general from what I've read and is a bit of a lone wolf type, she apparently showed no interest in working with its members on the caucus' priorities until about a month before she announced her candidacy, and some folks are still mad that she unseated Al Wynn who was apparently very well liked within the CBC despite being too conservative for his district.  This is why many members of the CBC want Cummings to run (to ensure that Edwards doesn't win).

The reason people want Cummings to run isn't to prevent Edwards from winning.
In a 2-way race, Edwards will certainly win some Eastern Shore counties. Somerset and Kent for sure.

It's certainly the reason most of the CBC has been lobbying him to run, although I will grant you that some Baltimore-area politicians also want a candidate from that area to be the nominee, although even then stopping Edwards is still a significant factor.

Do you have any sources? At all? There's certainly reticence to support Edwards, but you seem to bee saying that people are pushing Cummings not because they think he'll win, but because he'll cause Edwards to lose. That's not true.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

why does the CBC hate her?

She doesn't play very well with others in general from what I've read and is a bit of a lone wolf type, she apparently showed no interest in working with its members on the caucus' priorities until about a month before she announced her candidacy, and some folks are still mad that she unseated Al Wynn who was apparently very well liked within the CBC despite being too conservative for his district.  This is why many members of the CBC want Cummings to run (to ensure that Edwards doesn't win).

The reason people want Cummings to run isn't to prevent Edwards from winning.
In a 2-way race, Edwards will certainly win some Eastern Shore counties. Somerset and Kent for sure.

It's certainly the reason most of the CBC has been lobbying him to run, although I will grant you that some Baltimore-area politicians also want a candidate from that area to be the nominee, although even then stopping Edwards is still a significant factor.

Do you have any sources? At all? There's certainly reticence to support Edwards, but you seem to bee saying that people are pushing Cummings not because they think he'll win, but because he'll cause Edwards to lose. That's not true.

I will look for the article for you where I read that, although I never said they don't also think Cummings could win.