Iran Nuclear Talks: Framework for Final Deal Reached

[moderatevoter]

Link.

[Hnv1]

Excellent agreement. This and the Syrian chemical weapons agreement are impressive accomplishments for Kerry. Bibi can choke on a sock.

[Ebsy]

If the final agreement is honored by both sides, this might be the most significant part of President Obama's already impressive legacy.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The only thing that matters about any agreement is the inspection regime instituted in the final deal. We'll see if they manage to come to any sort of final agreement on that by June, but I'm skeptical.

Now Congress will go over this with a fine-toothed comb, no doubt.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This is fantastic news. Really a diplomatic masterpiece on Obama's side.

[Sumner 1868]

The only thing that matters about any agreement is the inspection regime instituted in the final deal. We'll see if they manage to come to any sort of final agreement on that by June, but I'm skeptical.

Now Congress will go over this with a fine-toothed comb, no doubt.

I suspect it will be rejected in the House no matter what it's provisions.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

The only thing that matters about any agreement is the inspection regime instituted in the final deal. We'll see if they manage to come to any sort of final agreement on that by June, but I'm skeptical.

Now Congress will go over this with a fine-toothed comb, no doubt.

I suspect it will be rejected in the House no matter what it's provisions.

Does the House have a say in it? The Senate is the place that regulates foreign treaties.

I think they'll give it a fairer hearing than the House would, at least.

[Mr. Morden]

The only thing that matters about any agreement is the inspection regime instituted in the final deal. We'll see if they manage to come to any sort of final agreement on that by June, but I'm skeptical.

Now Congress will go over this with a fine-toothed comb, no doubt.

I suspect it will be rejected in the House no matter what it's provisions.

Does the House have a say in it? The Senate is the place that regulates foreign treaties.

This isn't a treaty.  Just an informal agreement.  Congress doesn't have any say whatsoever, unless veto-proof majorities pass new sanctions…or if the agreement demands that the US actually repeal some of the sanctions rather than Obama just stop enforcing them.

[Chunk Yogurt for President!]

If the final agreement is honored by both sides, this might be the most significant only good part of President Obama's already impressive atrocious legacy.

[King]

Glorious news.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Assuming the verification pans out, this seems eminently fair. Almost common sense, even. If anything it remains slightly harsher on Iran than I think the current situation merits.

[MATTROSE94]

Great news! Hopefully the framework for the agreement will result in a cooling of the long-standing tensions between the U.S. and Iran and reduce the chance of a major war from breaking out between both countries. Unfortunately, any treaty between the U.S. and Iran will be summarily rejected by Senate, as the likes of Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton will filibuster it and prevent it from ever coming into effect.

[Ban my account ffs!]

This is excellent news though I suspect Bibi's freak out will be impressive.

[Beet]

As this opens the door to detente between the West and the Middle East's Shiite great power for the first time since 1979, it's a major strategic coup whose significance goes well beyond the specifics of verification agreements, IMO. Equally gratifying is that this is a six-power agreement, not a bilateral one between the Obama administration and the Iranian government. Those trying to scuttle the deal in Congress are now going against not only U.S. policy but joint U.S.-E.U. policy.

Also, Senator Menendez is now indicted.

Overall, a good day.

[Cory]

The only thing that matters about any agreement is the inspection regime instituted in the final deal. We'll see if they manage to come to any sort of final agreement on that by June, but I'm skeptical.

Now Congress will go over this with a fine-toothed comb, no doubt.

Can you at least try to hide your disappointment that any kind of deal has been reached.

[Famous Mortimer]

If the final agreement is honored by both sides, this might be the most significant part of President Obama's already impressive legacy.

Haha. Get out of Obama's butt.

Iran agrees not to build the nuclear weapon they weren't/couldn't build anyway, but they keep a bunch of stuff they could use to restart the program at any time.

American does away with sanctions but no normalization of relations.

Half assed deal. Although it was a half assed problem so I guess that's appropriate.

It's good but if this is Obama's greatest legacy, he's leaving a crappy legacy (which he's doing anyway).

[Ebsy]

If the final agreement is honored by both sides, this might be the most significant part of President Obama's already impressive legacy.

Haha. Get out of Obama's butt.

Iran agrees not to build the nuclear weapon they weren't/couldn't build anyway, but they keep a bunch of stuff they could use to restart the program at any time.

American does away with sanctions but no normalization of relations.

Half assed deal. Although it was a half assed problem so I guess that's appropriate.

It's good but if this is Obama's greatest legacy, he's leaving a crappy legacy (which he's doing anyway).

April Fools was on Wednesday.

[politicus]

Noticeable fact: Obama informed King Salman before Nethanyahu after the deal was struck.

A few comments to the deal:

Analyst Mustafa Alani from the Saudi Gulf Research Center says King Salman has already taken the agreement into account with a more aggressive foreign policy.

"The intervention in Yemen is the clear example, it is intended to send a clear signal to Tehran and Washington that the region (Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf states) will counter Iran's expansionist policy. We see a new course where Saudi interests are prioritized over the United States recommendations and Security Council resolutions"

Commentator Talal Alharbi in the Saudi newspaper Arab News:

"Iran's slogans about 'revolution', 'Death to America' and 'Death to Israel' are now 'Death to Arabs', as the Arab states, not Israel, are the victims of Iranian policy."

Egyptian observers think the agreement will lead to a nuclear arms race in the region. The Egyptians have for years argued for a nuclear-free Middle East (= getting rid of Israel's stockpile of c. 200 nuclear warheads, but also addressing Iranian ambitions on nuclear weapons)

Director of the Al Ahram think tank in Cairo Abdel Monem Said Aly:

"If the Arab leaders believe that a nuclear deal with Iran open for a possible production of nuclear weapons, the thinking will be: Why don't we have the same status"

[Mr. Morden]

Unfortunately, any treaty between the U.S. and Iran will be summarily rejected by Senate, as the likes of Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton will filibuster it and prevent it from ever coming into effect.

Again, this isn't a treaty.

[MATTROSE94]

Unfortunately, any treaty between the U.S. and Iran will be summarily rejected by Senate, as the likes of Ted Cruz and Tom Cotton will filibuster it and prevent it from ever coming into effect.

Again, this isn't a treaty.

I knew that. What I meant to say that if any agreement between the U.S. and Iran came up to the Senate for a vote, it would likely not pass and the likes of Tom Cotton and Ted Cruz would fight tooth and nail against it.

[swl]

Noticeable fact: Obama informed King Salman before Nethanyahu after the deal was struck.

A few comments to the deal:
[...]

I read similar stuff. One important thing is that in the broad rivalry Iran/Shia vs Saudi Arabia/Turkey/Sunni states, the US were clearly considered to be on the Sunni side. Saudis are worried that Washington may become more neutral (good thing imo), and the Sunni intervention in Yemen is a demonstration of assertiveness directed to Iran.

[politicus]

Noticeable fact: Obama informed King Salman before Nethanyahu after the deal was struck.

A few comments to the deal:
[...]

I read similar stuff. One important thing is that in the broad rivalry Iran/Shia vs Saudi Arabia/Turkey/Sunni states, the US were clearly considered to be on the Sunni side. Saudis are worried that Washington may become more neutral (good thing imo), and the Sunni intervention in Yemen is a demonstration of assertiveness directed to Iran.

That is stating the obvious.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Noticeable fact: Obama informed King Salman before Nethanyahu after the deal was struck.

A few comments to the deal:
[...]

I read similar stuff. One important thing is that in the broad rivalry Iran/Shia vs Saudi Arabia/Turkey/Sunni states, the US were clearly considered to be on the Sunni side. Saudis are worried that Washington may become more neutral (good thing imo), and the Sunni intervention in Yemen is a demonstration of assertiveness directed to Iran.

The US should respond by taking a stand against this unilateral Sunni aggression. Sadly, they won't.

[politicus]

Well, it may not be a bad idea to state some basic facts, so looking at the Sunni-side:

- Led by Saudi Arabia the Sunni Arabs states decided to intervene (in Yemen and elsewhere where it might be necessarry) in an attempt to halt the Iranian offensive in the Arab world. To do this the Arab League's 22 members have agreed to establish a force of 40,000 to be deployed at critical points, but no consensus on whether it should be voluntary or conscript, or who should decide what. So far has concentrated on efforts to fight the pro-Iranian Houthis in Yemen. Egyptian aircraft have bombed/Saudi gunboats have fired upon Houthi forces from the sea.

- The Sunni alliance has failed to agree on intervening in the Libyan civil war. Egypt and UAE supports one side/Turkey and Qatar supports another.

- As part of the increasing Sunni Muslim brotherhood Erdogan visited Riyadh. Relationship between the two powers have been bad because Erdogan supports the Muslim bros# in Egypt, while the Saudis support military dictator el-Sissi and consider the Muslim Brotherhood terrorists.

On that occasion Saudi foreign minister, Saud ibn Feisal said that Muslim brothers was "no longer a problem". Erdogan seems to have caved in and everybody loves al-Sissi (at least officially).

- Fears of Iran and disenchantment with the Iranian-American rapprochement is the miracle that has brought Sunni countries together.

- Conflict with Israel takes a backseat. Even reports that Saudi Arabia is considering selling oil to Israel.

[politicus]

The US should respond by taking a stand against this unilateral Sunni aggression. Sadly, they won't.

In the big picture Iran is on the offensive and the Sunnis are defending.

Iran and allies have the upper hand in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Yemen.