Bold Predictions for the Next Few Cycles

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

Bold Prediction: All of your stupid predictions will be wrong.

Rough talk, yet I'm willing to endorse this.

Clarko's prediction wasn't bad at all, actually. But I don't see the Democrats winning the Senate next year. They will likely fall a few seats short.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, it is too early to say whether the Dems will net the senate, anything can happen. Dems only need 4 seats, not impossible.

[pbrower2a]

Bold Prediction: All of your stupid predictions will be wrong.

Mine is cautious -- and limited. I don't do astrology, and at this point even it may be more reliable than our predictions based upon wishful thinking and partisan bias.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That year, Mitt Romney ran for president, and was a disappointment.

[Nyvin]

That year, Mitt Romney ran for president, and was a disappointment.

Nah, Romney didn't have to do anything with that. Republicans could have won MT, ND, MO and IN easily (Romney won those states), but they didn't because they proved once again how stupid they are. Same could happen to the Dems in 2016. 

IN wouldn't have been a pickup.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

That year, Mitt Romney ran for president, and was a disappointment.

Nah, Romney didn't have to do anything with that. Republicans could have won MT, ND, MO and IN easily (Romney won those states), but they didn't because they proved once again how stupid they are. Same could happen to the Dems in 2016. 

That's why Harry Reid retired, he was a drag as Democratic leader.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Reid really wasted Democratic donors on the 2014 races. Reid also was too close to Wallstreet and crafted the CROMNIBUS. Schumer will stand on principal and do what's best for the party and allow Dems to chose the best candidates to win, not chose them like Reid did. Like Donna Edwards being the Democratic nominee in MD, not Van Hollen.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

5 new females will replace Heinekamp and McCaskill in the nxt couple of election cycles. Titus and Mastro-Cortez replaces Reid and Heller, Collins opts for run for gov, Cain becomes senator, and Donna Edwards and Duckworth are elected senators.

Besides that, Toomey is defeated in 2016, for the tipping point state, and will give Democrats control of the United States Senate. Menendez is outsted and replaced by a Democrat and dems win NJ gov and lose VA gov in 2017.

[MATTROSE94]

2016: Hillary Clinton/Martin Heinrich defeats either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush by a somewhat close margin. The Democrats pick up Senate seats in Illinois, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, Florida and Ohio, whereas the Republicans pick up Nevada and Colorado. The Democrats pick up 15-20 House seats mostly in New York and California. The Democrats pick up the governorship in North Carolina while the Republicans pick up Missouri, West Virginia and Montana.

2018: The economy heads back into recession. The Republicans easily pick up Senate seats in Indiana, Missouri, Montana, North Dakota, West Virginia (Joe Manchin retires), Virginia, Pennsylvania, Florida and Ohio, giving them a fillibuster-proof Senate majority. In addition, the Republicans pick up most of the 15-20 seats they lost in 2018. The Democrats pick up the governorships in Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, Maine, Florida and Georgia while the Republicans pick up Alaska, Connecticut, Vermont and Colorado.

2020: Hillary Clinton opts to serve only one term, so Vice President Martin Heinrich gets the Democratic nomination and loses to the Republican ticket of Rand Paul/Larry Hogan. The Republicans pick up a handful of House seats, but lose Senate seats in Iowa and North Carolina.

After 2020, I am not too sure. I would bet that Rand Paul would be re-elected in 2024 and feel that the Republicans will hold onto both houses of Congress until the 2026 midterm elections.

[Nyvin]

Hillary "deciding" to only serve one term seems to be a common mention in this thread, anyone care to explain why?

[bobloblaw]

Given the recently bumped thread, let me share some of my bold Predictions for the next few cycles:

-The Democrats do not reclaim the House for at least another 15 years
-2016 sees no net change in the Senate, with NV going GOP and IL Dem.
-In 2018, The Republicans pick up Senate seats in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, West Virginia, and Florida, just enough for a filibuster-proof majority.  King caucuses with the GOP for 61.
-2016 is the year that Pennsylvania goes red in a Presidential Election- doing so while Virginia is blue.
-Scott Walker wins all of the Romney states plus Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin, for a comfortable victory over Hillary Clinton.  He chooses Carly Fiorina to be VP.
-2018 is a weird election, as Republicans make significant Senate gains (getting a filibuster-proof majority) despite Democrats winning back Governorships in Wisconsin, Florida, Michigan, Massachusetts, Maryland, Illinois and Nevada.  Republicans take Kentucky in 2015, West Virginia in 2016 and Alaska (from the Independents) in 2018, making the Nation's governorships much more even.
-Despite having a supermajority, Mitch McConnell retires before the 2020 elections and is replaced as majority leader by Lamar Alexander, giving the Tea Party someone else to hate.
-In 2020, President Walker is comfortably re-elected, but the Republicans lose their supermajority, losing seats in North Carolina and Colorado, while picking up none.
-2022 is an absolute bloodbath for Republicans, losing Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Florida, New Hampshire, and Ohio.  Collins also retires mid-term and is replaced by a Democrat.  With King continuing to caucus with the Republicans, they hold a 52-48 majority.  The Republicans also only win 225 House seats and fire Boehner as Speaker after a 12-year run.
-In 2024, Joe Manchin runs for President as an Independent and wins 25% of the vote.  Bill Haslam wins the election, narrowly defeating Mark Warner and Joe Manchin.  However, the Democrats win a Senate seat in Nevada, narrowing the GOP majority to 51-49.
-In 2026, the Democrats take their first Senate majority since 2014 and, in 2028, defeat President Haslam with someone that none of us have ever heard of yet (probably someone about 20-25 years old today).

Now, as I got far out, it became a complete guessing game, but the point is that I expect a major Republican majority to develop soon.  But, like everything, it will not be permanent.

Not all those things can come true. If the GOP wins in 2016, they wont pick up a bunch of Senate seats in 2018.

The most realistic prediction is the DEMs become the party of the WH and the GOP the party of everything else, with the Senate in Dem hands 1/3 of the time. Kind of like the 1968-92 period.

This does mean that when the GOP does win the WH, they will be in an excellent position for major conservative reform, given their large congressional majorities.

[Maxwell]

Here's a prediction (though I don't think it will be all that bold): Hillary's coat tails will be overrated.

[bobloblaw]

Here's a prediction (though I don't think it will be all that bold): Hillary's coat tails will be overrated.

There wont be the Hillary coattails that Obama had in 2008 and 2012.

She is more dependent on voters who usually vote GOP, especially GOP women, making ticket slitting ore likely in 2016, than in 2012. Obama drove turnout very high among people who were committed liberals in down ticket races. That coalition will be weaker in 2012 and there will be more ticket splitters

I can see Ayotte winning reelection easily with Hillary carrying NH. I think Portman, Toomey and the FL-GOP candidate can all win. IL and WI are the seats the GOP will likely lose.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Here's a prediction (though I don't think it will be all that bold): Hillary's coat tails will be overrated.

There wont be the Hillary coattails that Obama had in 2008 and 2012.

She is more dependent on voters who usually vote GOP, especially GOP women, making ticket slitting ore likely in 2016, than in 2012. Obama drove turnout very high among people who were committed liberals in down ticket races. That coalition will be weaker in 2012 and there will be more ticket splitters

I can see Ayotte winning reelection easily with Hillary carrying NH. I think Portman, Toomey and the FL-GOP candidate can all win. IL and WI are the seats the GOP will likely lose.

The Dems will capture the Senate again in 2016,  netting 4 seats is a real possibility.  And Walker or Jeb are having the same problems as Romney did, losing in states like OH, PA, WI and IL.  The most likely scenario is Toomey surviving and Dems winning FL.

Once the QU polls that skews GOP samplse like they had Cory Gardner winning by 10 and actually winning by 3 skewed polls, and other pollsters come out, we will see what races we do have that are competetive.

[bobloblaw]

Here's a prediction (though I don't think it will be all that bold): Hillary's coat tails will be overrated.

There wont be the Hillary coattails that Obama had in 2008 and 2012.

She is more dependent on voters who usually vote GOP, especially GOP women, making ticket slitting ore likely in 2016, than in 2012. Obama drove turnout very high among people who were committed liberals in down ticket races. That coalition will be weaker in 2012 and there will be more ticket splitters

I can see Ayotte winning reelection easily with Hillary carrying NH. I think Portman, Toomey and the FL-GOP candidate can all win. IL and WI are the seats the GOP will likely lose.

The Dems will capture the Senate again in 2016,  netting 4 seats is a real possibility.  And Walker or Jeb are having the same problems as Romney did, losing in states like OH, PA, WI and IL.  The most likely scenario is Toomey surviving and Dems winning FL.

I could see 4. But with Manchin, Donnelly and Heitkamp 50-52 seats wont do them much good. OH and PA arent IL and WI. Ayotte will win in NH, NH is the state most likely to ticket split. Dems arent likely to do well in FL if there is any type of primary between Grayson and Murphy.

[Maxwell]

Bolder prediction? GOP win 60 seats by January of 2019. Hillary probably wins re-election if she runs, if narrowly, but if she does retire Democrats have a hell on earth time of trying to keep the Presidency democratic. Even with demographic changes I suspect the Dem bench would only deteriorate under a President Clinton, and as a result, they have to run some old name.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not even close, GOP ran McCain and Romney twice, and Bushes seem to manage to run for president.

Clinton is the star, but Jeb and Walker are running behind.