Insiders view Paul as strong early state contender (Politico)

[All Along The Watchtower]

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[King]

If Jeb and Rubio are out before the voting starts, he may have a shot in New Hampshire with a 2nd/3rd place finish in Iowa. But otherwise I don't see him expanding beyond his father's performance.

[All Along The Watchtower]

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That means he should compromise his principles? If he does that, I won't support him.

Compromise is a bad word, of course.

[King]

If I'm Paul and I want to be President, I'm rooting for a respectable finish and Cruz to win the nomination this time around, get shellacked, knock Rubio out of the Senate and contention in the wave, and then run as the favorite to unseat Hillary in 2020. I think the nomination would be his next cycle.

[bedstuy]

The prominence of the Iran issue really hurts Paul at the moment.

Earlier in the Obama administration, the foreign policy debate in the Republican Party was more on Rand Paul's turf.  He could complain about President Obama using drones in America to kill Republicans or whatever.  (Did that seriously happen or am I imagining it?)  He could complain about the NSA.  He could offer non-intervention as a viable option in the Arab Spring. 

Now, Obama's engagement with Iran needs to be made out to be an outrageous, weak move by Republicans or they'll risk agreeing with Obama or commending his efforts.  Rand is in a bad sport to attack Obama about that or take him to task for not being pro-Israel enough.  The ISIS issue also matters here.  ISIS raises the danger and the fear level making perceived weakness potentially even more damaging. 

[King]

If I'm Paul and I want to be President, I'm rooting for a respectable finish and Cruz to win the nomination this time around, get shellacked, knock Rubio out of the Senate and contention in the wave, and then run as the favorite to unseat Hillary in 2020. I think the nomination would be his next cycle.

If Cruz is the nominee, then people will blame Conservatives for losing the election. They will consider any1 that sticks more to principle than moderation as a threat.

Rand Paul isn't seen as conservative by a lot of people, though. He's thought of as a reformer. The media would go nice on him.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

If I'm Paul and I want to be President, I'm rooting for a respectable finish and Cruz to win the nomination this time around, get shellacked, knock Rubio out of the Senate and contention in the wave, and then run as the favorite to unseat Hillary in 2020. I think the nomination would be his next cycle.

If Cruz is the nominee, then people will blame Conservatives for losing the election. They will consider any1 that sticks more to principle than moderation as a threat.

Rand Paul isn't seen as conservative by a lot of people, though. He's thought of as a reformer. The media would go nice on him.

Because they were so good to Ron, right?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

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That means he should compromise his principles? If he does that, I won't support him.

He compromised his principles (assuming he ever had any) some time ago, when he because pro-intervention:
http://www.latimes.com/opinion/op-ed/la-oe-mcmanus-column-rand-paul-20141026-column.html

[Deus Naturae]

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Article.

That means he should compromise his principles? If he does that, I won't support him.

Compromise is a bad word, of course.

That's like the definition of a strawman.

[Bull Moose Base]

Rubio will be out of the senate anyway because he's not running for his seat nor does he need to be in the senate to be viable in 2020. He needs to not flop this time. (I think it's fairly likely he will).

Paul will probably find a way around the law and stay in the senate even if he loses but it doesn't matter because it's still very doubtful the GOP will change enough for Paul to have a path to the nomination in 2020. That's especially true if Cruz loses and the establishment takes the opportunity to blame the base for not following orders. (Actually, it's not just Cruz. It's anyone but Bush that will prompt that response.)

[Orthogonian Society Treasurer]

"In order to win, he needs to be more like Jeb Bush and less like Rand Paul" said the Insider ™. 

[Skye]

The problem with Rand is that he'll probably have the same numbers as his father in 2012.

[MustLuvMavericks]

Rand would do great in general election, probably the GOP's best choice to defeat Hillary. It's the primary that's the problem, Rand will never be seen as willing enough to start another war of choice.

I love watching these "insiders' try to pass off their ideological preferences as conventional wisdom, though.

[Eraserhead]

I can see him winning in Iowa and coming in second place in New Hampshire.