In this election, I could see Vilsack picking a safe choice for VP. He seems risk averse. This matchup would be a 269 tie.
Tom Dewey was risk averse. That worked out real well. Of course Bush wins.
Nearly always the risk averse veep candidates are on the winning ticket, while the wacky picks end up losing.
A 269 tie goes to Republicans, given the composition of the House delegations that vote for Prez.
I don't think wacky veeps cause candidates to lose. It could be that losing candidates pick riskier veeps. Although I'm trying to consider veep candidates since 1968.
Wacky Winner: Spiro Agnew, Dan Quayle,
Wacky Loser: Tom Eagleton, Geraldine Ferraro, Sarah Palin
Safe Winner: Walter Mondale, George HW Bush, Al Gore, Dick Cheney, Joe Biden (Close to saying he's a wacky winner)
Safe Loser: Edmund Muskie, Sargent Shriver, Bob Dole, Lloyd Bentsen, Jack Kemp, Joe Lieberman, John Edwards, Paul Ryan
Any old white guy who stumbles into the Democratic nomination will likely pick a qualified woman for Veep.