Home state bonuses?

[IceSpear]

In 2012, seemingly none of the 4 candidates (Obama, Biden, Romney, Ryan) got a home state bounce. In 2000/2008, all 4 candidates got a home state bounce. In 2004, everyone but Edwards did. Is 2012 an aberration, or the start of a new trend?

Also, for the purposes of this thread, only count home states as states they were elected (ex: Hawaii doesn't count for Obama, or Utah for Romney.)

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

Obama and Biden were both incumbents, so their home state advantage worn off as they were no longer considered to be from just their own states. I think in this more polarized climate the home state advantage for incumbents wear off significantly, much more than it did before.

As for Romney and Ryan, I think they just had really weak home state bonuses. Ryan was never elected statewide in Wisconsin, so his favorite son effect was close to zero. Romney had been a one-term governor who had been out of office for almost six years by election day, and having been defined by two presidential campaigns it was clear that Massachusetts saw the Romney of 2002 and the Romney of 2012 as completely different people.

[Skye]

Well, Romney got around 40% of the vote in Illinois and Delaware, so I don't think that "Home State bonus" wore off for Obama and Biden.

As for Romney and Ryan, I think they just had really weak home state bonuses. Ryan was never elected statewide in Wisconsin, so his favorite son effect was close to zero. Romney had been a one-term governor who had been out of office for almost six years by election day, and having been defined by two presidential campaigns it was clear that Massachusetts saw the Romney of 2002 and the Romney of 2012 as completely different people.

What he said.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Romney got a bonus in one state that could be counted as 'home' of sorts ...

[Mr. Illini]

Well, Romney got around 40% of the vote in Illinois and Delaware, so I don't think that "Home State bonus" wore off for Obama and Biden.

Romney only got 30% in Vermont. Obama/Biden home state bonus?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

You could argue that Paul Ryan got  a bounce in Wisconsin. In 2008, WI was D +10 (although Obama over performed in the Midwest that year). Then in 2012 with Ryan on the ticket, it was only D+3 compared to the national average.

The Romney campaign played up the whole upper Midwestern deer hunter Catholic thing alot which probably helped a bit. Some of the snap back towards Republicans was probably a reversion to the mean though.

[bobloblaw]

If you look at history, the Home State Bounce fades after the first election. Compare Bush in 200 and 2004 in TX versus the national vote. Do the same for Clinton in 1992 and 1996 and Reagan in 1980 and 1984. You see a fade relative to the national popular vote.

[Sumner 1868]

I think it was mostly that none of the 2012 candidates came from competitive states.

[bobloblaw]

You could argue that Paul Ryan got  a bounce in Wisconsin. In 2008, WI was D +10 (although Obama over performed in the Midwest that year). Then in 2012 with Ryan on the ticket, it was only D+3 compared to the national average.

The Romney campaign played up the whole upper Midwestern deer hunter Catholic thing alot which probably helped a bit. Some of the snap back towards Republicans was probably a reversion to the mean though.

That was just WI reverting to its long term trend.

WI was not D+10 in 2008, it was D+3.5 and in 2012 it was D+1.8. Youre on the BEST political web site for election stats. No excuse for making the claim that WI was D+10. IL wasnt even D+10 in 2008.

I hope everyone know how to read PVIs.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Actually Obama doing well in WI was also a function of how it bordered with IL in 2008 (in consistent with other states that bordered the state), a trend that continued in 2012, though it got much weaker - thanks to Ryan being selected VP and the swing back to Republicans in 2012.

[Mister Mets]

We don't know the impact of a candidate since we don't know how another candidate would have done.

Perhaps a guy with Obama's record from Philadelphia instead of Chicago would have done five points worse in Illinois in 2012.

[Skill and Chance]

We don't know the impact of a candidate since we don't know how another candidate would have done.

Perhaps a guy with Obama's record from Philadelphia instead of Chicago would have done five points worse in Illinois in 2012.

We can look at recent candidates from outside the state when demographics were similar and the parties more or less stood for the same things.  Compared to Kerry and Gore, Illinois was right where it "should" have been in 2012.  I think we can discount a meaningful home state effect for Obama.  Comparing Delaware in 2000/2004/2012, it also looks right on track, so I don't think there was a meaningful home state bounce for Biden either.  2008 however is anomalous in both states compared to the national vote.  It does look like Ryan got a 1-2% bounce in Wisconsin compared to 2000/2004, but Massachusetts actually trended toward Obama relative to the nation, so Romney actually got a negative bounce.

Either way, being able to swing a state by more than a couple % just by being from there looks like a thing of the past.

[bobloblaw]

Romney definitely got a Utah bounce versus 2008 and even 2004.


Ive looked at home state bounces going back to 1980. The seem to be good for one election, then fade. I look how that candidate did in their state relative to the national popular vote and then compare that to how that state voted relative to the national popular vote when that candidate wasnt on the ballot.

Reagan had one in 1980 but not 84. Clinton had one in 92 but not 96. Bush had one in 2000, but not 2004. Obama got one in 2008 but not 2012.