2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project: COMPLETE!
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  2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project: COMPLETE!
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Author Topic: 2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project: COMPLETE!  (Read 51269 times)
Adam Griffin
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« Reply #25 on: April 10, 2015, 02:03:59 AM »
« edited: April 10, 2015, 02:07:18 AM by RGriffin »

Wow, Obama did a lot better in Tennessee then I would have expected. I guess the only thing separating it from North Carolina in terms of competitiveness is the massive black flight from the state.

One big issue with Tennessee is that its black population remains (at least, it appears) vastly under-represented at the ballot box.

I will admit that I am the least confident in my county-by-county projections for Tennessee than for any other state, if only because I had almost nothing with which to work (I think my overall statewide white share of the vote projection is accurate, however). TN doesn't publish voter registration stats by race for each county, nor does it seem to track voter turnout by race and/or by county. I literally had only the 2012 Census numbers and the 2008 exit polling to use for this. The 2008 exit poll said that 84% of TN voters were white and 12% black; 2010 population was 76% white and 17% black. In my 2012 projections, the number worked out to 14.5% black. If the voters had matched the population along black and white lines in 2008, then TN would likely have been 53/46 or so.
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Torie
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« Reply #26 on: April 10, 2015, 08:00:29 AM »

Are Obama's "white lovers" male or female? Inquiring minds want to know.
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Sbane
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« Reply #27 on: April 10, 2015, 10:51:39 AM »

Are Obama's "white lovers" male or female? Inquiring minds want to know.

Gays and females. Tongue

Adam, nice job on Tennessee, considering the constraints you mentioned. I have calculated the white vote % for Davidson County before and I got the same number as you. Based on my interactions with people it would seem like a decent majority of whites are voting Democrat here but I usually hang around places like Downtown, East Nashville, Germantown and the West End area where whites are voting for the Democrats. That drops precipitously once you get outside the 440/Briley Parkway loop.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #28 on: April 11, 2015, 01:02:16 AM »

Yeah, TN isn't the Deep South after all. Western and Middle Tennessee used to be quite Democratic until the early 2000s, since then the Democratic party has collapsed here - you saw a similar thing happening in KY. TN is really KY's twin. They are quite similiar politically, even though TN is slightly more Republican and conservative.

Don't forget that even in 2008, Tennessee had a Democratic Governor and 5/9 House seats were won by Democrats.

Adam, nice job on Tennessee, considering the constraints you mentioned. I have calculated the white vote % for Davidson County before and I got the same number as you. Based on my interactions with people it would seem like a decent majority of whites are voting Democrat here but I usually hang around places like Downtown, East Nashville, Germantown and the West End area where whites are voting for the Democrats. That drops precipitously once you get outside the 440/Briley Parkway loop.

Well, it's good to know that things look more or less correct. Someone was sort of busting my balls about Davidson County in chat last night, but it's one of the counties about which I had more confidence. I was actually shocked to see Knox County as low as it was, and in particular, Hamilton County be so low compared to the rural areas to the west of them (in relative terms; it doesn't shock me that places like Warren, Van Buren, Grundy, Marion, Franklin, etc are as Democratic as they are). Even Shelby County was a bit surprising for me.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #29 on: April 11, 2015, 02:10:45 AM »

Very nice project! Even by looking at this, I more clearly understand the electoral aspects of each state. I find it very interesting that whites in the south living in urban counties and/or counties with more black and Hispanic people are much more likely to vote Democratic than whites who live in a exurban, rural, majority white counties. I would love to see Texas, though 254 counties would take an insane amount of time.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #30 on: April 11, 2015, 01:01:18 PM »

I find it very interesting that whites in the south living in urban counties and/or counties with more black and Hispanic people are much more likely to vote Democratic than whites who live in a exurban, rural, majority white counties.
Could many of the white Obama voters in heavily-black counties have partially black ancestry or have blacks in their family and thus in part identify with African Americans in some way?
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Ebsy
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« Reply #31 on: April 11, 2015, 01:14:41 PM »

I find it very interesting that whites in the south living in urban counties and/or counties with more black and Hispanic people are much more likely to vote Democratic than whites who live in a exurban, rural, majority white counties.
Could many of the white Obama voters in heavily-black counties have partially black ancestry or have blacks in their family and thus in part identify with African Americans in some way?
Doubtful. It's more likely whites in urban areas are just more likely to be liberal.
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Torie
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« Reply #32 on: April 11, 2015, 02:59:01 PM »
« Edited: April 11, 2015, 03:56:43 PM by Torie »

Are Obama's "white lovers" male or female? Inquiring minds want to know.

Gays and females. Tongue

Adam, nice job on Tennessee, considering the constraints you mentioned. I have calculated the white vote % for Davidson County before and I got the same number as you. Based on my interactions with people it would seem like a decent majority of whites are voting Democrat here but I usually hang around places like Downtown, East Nashville, Germantown and the West End area where whites are voting for the Democrats. That drops precipitously once you get outside the 440/Briley Parkway loop.

Playing around with Davidson County, and slicing it up into four zones, one where McCain clearly carried the white vote (orange), a second where Obama clearly did (Cyan), a third zone where I was not sure (yellow), and a fourth zone (blue) that is majority BVAP (where Obama again carried the white vote, and overwhelmingly), and then playing around with turnout percentages to make the numbers work for each zone, Obama got about 42.5% of the white vote, plus or minus a couple of percent, but no more of an error than that. Black turnout was probably higher in Davidson County than white turnout. The key constant to make it all work, was the assumption, which is reasonable, that Obama got 95% of the black vote across the board. With that assumption as a constant, the rest of the numbers can be massaged to get an idea of who did what to whom.  There also are clearly differentials in turnout percentages between the four zones.



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TDAS04
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« Reply #33 on: April 11, 2015, 06:25:23 PM »

I'm a little surprised that North Carolina whites didn't vote for Obama at a higher rate, especially when compared to Tennessee.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #34 on: April 11, 2015, 07:59:10 PM »

I'm a little surprised that North Carolina whites didn't vote for Obama at a higher rate, especially when compared to Tennessee.

I actually think the most interesting part of this is the level of rural white Dem support still left in NC, particularly when comparing the NC mountains to areas just across the border in any direction.  However, I did assume Raleigh and Charlotte white voters were a lot more Dem than the nation, so that part is surprising.  It will be very interesting to see VA for this reason.  I wonder if Obama actually won white voters in Fairfax or Henrico?
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traininthedistance
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« Reply #35 on: April 11, 2015, 08:29:51 PM »

I'm a little surprised that North Carolina whites didn't vote for Obama at a higher rate, especially when compared to Tennessee.

I actually think the most interesting part of this is the level of rural white Dem support still left in NC, particularly when comparing the NC mountains to areas just across the border in any direction.  However, I did assume Raleigh and Charlotte white voters were a lot more Dem than the nation, so that part is surprising.  It will be very interesting to see VA for this reason.  I wonder if Obama actually won white voters in Fairfax or Henrico?

Possibly Fairfax, depending on what assumptions we're making about the Asian vote.

Henrico?  No way.  Obama probably did win whites in Richmond proper, though.
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nclib
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« Reply #36 on: April 11, 2015, 09:04:31 PM »

Osceola must be a mistake - a heavily Hispanic county that voted 62% Obama overall and whites are 57% Obama?
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Sol
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« Reply #37 on: April 11, 2015, 09:07:56 PM »

I'm a little surprised that North Carolina whites didn't vote for Obama at a higher rate, especially when compared to Tennessee.

I actually think the most interesting part of this is the level of rural white Dem support still left in NC, particularly when comparing the NC mountains to areas just across the border in any direction.  However, I did assume Raleigh and Charlotte white voters were a lot more Dem than the nation, so that part is surprising.  It will be very interesting to see VA for this reason.  I wonder if Obama actually won white voters in Fairfax or Henrico?

Yeah, no, Charlotte is like any other southern metro in terms of racial polarization.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #38 on: April 11, 2015, 09:58:26 PM »

I'm a little surprised that North Carolina whites didn't vote for Obama at a higher rate, especially when compared to Tennessee.

I actually think the most interesting part of this is the level of rural white Dem support still left in NC, particularly when comparing the NC mountains to areas just across the border in any direction.  However, I did assume Raleigh and Charlotte white voters were a lot more Dem than the nation, so that part is surprising.  It will be very interesting to see VA for this reason.  I wonder if Obama actually won white voters in Fairfax or Henrico?

I, too, was surprised at the amount of white D support in western NC, though I knew it would be higher than the statewide total. While not necessarily indicative of anything, I recall driving through Cherokee/Clay/Jackson/Macon Counties a couple of years ago and seeing just a smorgasboard of local Democratic yard signs (that proudly declared such, which is odd for this general area) and Obama signs.

What isn't surprising is the abrupt change in support when crossing borders - especially from GA into just about any other state. When you look at presidential results by county, you can see an almost immediate shift in gradient when you cross into NC (and TN/AL in some cases). Also, once you cross into NC from GA or TN, you can really sense a cultural shift just from driving along the highways.

Something I've considered/wondered about is how much dilution there might be with respect to inconsistencies in reporting Census race/ethnicity in the western part of the state. The capital of the Cherokee Reservation is in Cherokee (city), NC, in both Swain and Jackson Counties. Swain, Jackson and Graham Counties have 28%, 9% & 7% Native American populations, respectively. This still leaves 3-4 counties in that broader area where white Ds are strong but that do not have any substantial Nat-Am populations.

Most "Indians" in the area in reality are white these days, but I'm wondering if they're self-reporting as white (but perhaps possess more traditional Native-American voting habits)?
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #39 on: April 11, 2015, 10:31:05 PM »

I'm a little surprised that North Carolina whites didn't vote for Obama at a higher rate, especially when compared to Tennessee.

I actually think the most interesting part of this is the level of rural white Dem support still left in NC, particularly when comparing the NC mountains to areas just across the border in any direction.  However, I did assume Raleigh and Charlotte white voters were a lot more Dem than the nation, so that part is surprising.  It will be very interesting to see VA for this reason.  I wonder if Obama actually won white voters in Fairfax or Henrico?

I, too, was surprised at the amount of white D support in western NC, though I knew it would be higher than the statewide total. While not necessarily indicative of anything, I recall driving through Cherokee/Clay/Jackson/Macon Counties a couple of years ago and seeing just a smorgasboard of local Democratic yard signs (that proudly declared such, which is odd for this general area) and Obama signs.

What isn't surprising is the abrupt change in support when crossing borders - especially from GA into just about any other state. When you look at presidential results by county, you can see an almost immediate shift in gradient when you cross into NC (and TN/AL in some cases). Also, once you cross into NC from GA or TN, you can really sense a cultural shift just from driving along the highways.

Something I've considered/wondered about is how much dilution there might be with respect to inconsistencies in reporting Census race/ethnicity in the western part of the state. The capital of the Cherokee Reservation is in Cherokee (city), NC, in both Swain and Jackson Counties. Swain, Jackson and Graham Counties have 28%, 9% & 7% Native American populations, respectively. This still leaves 3-4 counties in that broader area where white Ds are strong but that do not have any substantial Nat-Am populations.

Most "Indians" in the area in reality are white these days, but I'm wondering if they're self-reporting as white (but perhaps possess more traditional Native-American voting habits)?

Perhaps it's related to the unusually late collapse of Blue Dogs as a voting block in NC?  NC looks like it is following the TN trajectory at the state level, but 2 years behind.  Relatively liberal rural Dems were able to hold on impressively long in both places.  So it will be very interesting to see if the mountains give out completely. 

This is why I would actually be more enthusiastic about GA than NC for Democrats going forward.  As your map shows, there's simply nowhere left for Republicans to swing more rural votes to counter the demographic change in Atlanta.  Looks like VA waiting to happen.
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #40 on: April 14, 2015, 11:55:09 PM »

LA has been added.

2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 14.4%
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #41 on: April 15, 2015, 12:18:20 AM »

LA has been added.

2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 14.4%

Orleans Parish is quite remarkable.  I thought it would be in the low 40's at best.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #42 on: April 15, 2015, 01:06:32 AM »

Times, when Cajun whites in Louisiana voted for national Democratic candidates  (like 1964, when almost all Louisiana was for Goldwater, and Cajun country - for Johnson) are gone. Now that's usual 8-14%. That bodes ill for Democrats in 2015 and 2019 state legislative elections - vast majority of remaining white Democratic legislators hail from there. Democratic caucus in Louisiana risks to be like those in Alabama really soon - 75-80% Black.

Thanks!
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #43 on: April 15, 2015, 01:12:00 AM »

AR has been added.

2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 27.1%
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #44 on: April 15, 2015, 01:13:45 AM »

LA has been added.

2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 14.4%

Orleans Parish is quite remarkable.  I thought it would be in the low 40's at best.

It looked higher than I thought it'd be, too. I'm going to go back and check a few counties from these past two states - LA had turnout by race but AR was another one that proved to be difficult.
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smoltchanov
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« Reply #45 on: April 15, 2015, 04:50:46 AM »

AR has been added.

2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 27.1%

Interesting. North Arkansas white voters vote approximately as in North Carolina and Tennessee  South Arkansas whites - almost as in Northern part of Louisiana
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #46 on: April 15, 2015, 06:16:24 PM »

Updated/refined projections for a few counties in Florida (Osceola & Dade included).
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #47 on: April 16, 2015, 05:21:55 AM »

KY has been added.

2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 31.5%
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Bandit3 the Worker
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« Reply #48 on: April 16, 2015, 08:47:02 AM »

KY has been added.

2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 31.5%

I'm not sure of some of these numbers. I'm sure Campbell County was over 35%, since Obama did a bit better than that overall, and the county is very, very heavily white. (Most nonwhite people who I knew growing up lived in other counties.)
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Gass3268
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« Reply #49 on: April 16, 2015, 08:55:05 AM »

Virginia next?
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