2012 White Obama Lovers Map by County Project: COMPLETE!

[Skill and Chance]

Why are DeKalb County whites so liberal?  Or maybe the methodology used to estimate the white Obama % gets a little wonky in counties that are demographic outliers? 

It's a downtown with a substantial non-Southern population.  That's not particularly surprising to me.   It would be interesting to see if Obama won white voters in Orleans Parish, Mecklenburg, NC or Davidson, TN (probably the least likely).

[Skill and Chance]

Why are DeKalb County whites so liberal?  Or maybe the methodology used to estimate the white Obama % gets a little wonky in counties that are demographic outliers? 

It's a downtown with a substantial non-Southern population.  That's not particularly surprising to me.   It would be interesting to see if Obama won white voters in Orleans Parish, Mecklenburg, NC or Davidson, TN (probably the least likely).

Fulton County is the downtown, no?  I guess my question is more, why would DeKalb whites be more liberal than Fulton County whites? 

Downtown in a Southern city developed with a lot of post-1950 growth (Atlanta, Houston, Dallas, Austin, etc.) means a cluster of tall buildings within a 20 mile radius region with the density of a Northeastern inner suburb.  It's not particularly obvious where downtown ends and the built up suburbs begin.  The inner suburb to outer suburb divide is much more dramatic culturally.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm a little surprised that North Carolina whites didn't vote for Obama at a higher rate, especially when compared to Tennessee.

I actually think the most interesting part of this is the level of rural white Dem support still left in NC, particularly when comparing the NC mountains to areas just across the border in any direction.  However, I did assume Raleigh and Charlotte white voters were a lot more Dem than the nation, so that part is surprising.  It will be very interesting to see VA for this reason.  I wonder if Obama actually won white voters in Fairfax or Henrico?

[Skill and Chance]

I'm a little surprised that North Carolina whites didn't vote for Obama at a higher rate, especially when compared to Tennessee.

I actually think the most interesting part of this is the level of rural white Dem support still left in NC, particularly when comparing the NC mountains to areas just across the border in any direction.  However, I did assume Raleigh and Charlotte white voters were a lot more Dem than the nation, so that part is surprising.  It will be very interesting to see VA for this reason.  I wonder if Obama actually won white voters in Fairfax or Henrico?

I, too, was surprised at the amount of white D support in western NC, though I knew it would be higher than the statewide total. While not necessarily indicative of anything, I recall driving through Cherokee/Clay/Jackson/Macon Counties a couple of years ago and seeing just a smorgasboard of local Democratic yard signs (that proudly declared such, which is odd for this general area) and Obama signs.

What isn't surprising is the abrupt change in support when crossing borders - especially from GA into just about any other state. When you look at presidential results by county, you can see an almost immediate shift in gradient when you cross into NC (and TN/AL in some cases). Also, once you cross into NC from GA or TN, you can really sense a cultural shift just from driving along the highways.

Something I've considered/wondered about is how much dilution there might be with respect to inconsistencies in reporting Census race/ethnicity in the western part of the state. The capital of the Cherokee Reservation is in Cherokee (city), NC, in both Swain and Jackson Counties. Swain, Jackson and Graham Counties have 28%, 9% & 7% Native American populations, respectively. This still leaves 3-4 counties in that broader area where white Ds are strong but that do not have any substantial Nat-Am populations.

Most "Indians" in the area in reality are white these days, but I'm wondering if they're self-reporting as white (but perhaps possess more traditional Native-American voting habits)?

Perhaps it's related to the unusually late collapse of Blue Dogs as a voting block in NC?  NC looks like it is following the TN trajectory at the state level, but 2 years behind.  Relatively liberal rural Dems were able to hold on impressively long in both places.  So it will be very interesting to see if the mountains give out completely. 

This is why I would actually be more enthusiastic about GA than NC for Democrats going forward.  As your map shows, there's simply nowhere left for Republicans to swing more rural votes to counter the demographic change in Atlanta.  Looks like VA waiting to happen.

[Skill and Chance]

LA has been added.

2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 14.4%

Orleans Parish is quite remarkable.  I thought it would be in the low 40's at best.

[Skill and Chance]

Really surprised at KY and TN coming in ahead of NC.  That suggests that if/when the current coalitions cement themselves, KY/TN/AR could easily be 70%+ Republican. 

Also will be interested to see if VA or FL is the most moderate.  The exit polls showed a tie between the two at 39% if I recall correctly.

[Skill and Chance]

Virginia is fascinating, but I have to ask, how does Roanoke County only have 7% of Obama white vote? Its 87% white and 37% Obama. 

Also, Franklin County is 89% white and gave Obama 34% in 2012, and Bedford county is 92% white and gave Obama 27%.  These two are showing as 9% and 7% on the map.  Further to the east, Appomattox is only 75% white and gave Obama only 30%, so the 13% figure there seems to check out.  Maybe a "1" got cut off in a couple of places?

[Skill and Chance]

Excellent! After Oklahoma and (sigh) Texas with it's myriad of counties will be added - all South will be done))) And in some aspects this is the most interesting part of the project...

Personally, I don't consider TX nor OK to be part of the South. I almost don't even care to do the rest of the nation; as you said, the South really is the most interesting element. Speaking of areas that aren't the South...


DC & MD have been added.

DC 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 87.3%
MD 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 45.7%

It's an eternal question - whether Texas and Oklahoma are South or West? IMHO - both. But they are no less southern then Maryland is)))

I would argue Texas north and east of San Antonio is unambiguously the South.  Oklahoma is primarily in the Midwest, save for OK-02.  Regarding MD, the Eastern Shore is clearly still Southern and the DC suburbs clearly are not.  Baltimore is surprisingly ambiguous.  Its political behavior is more consistent with an Upper South metro area than with the Northeast.  But more than half the population lives in areas that are clearly not Southern as of 2010, so I am going to say it belongs in the North now.

[Skill and Chance]

Excellent! After Oklahoma and (sigh) Texas with it's myriad of counties will be added - all South will be done))) And in some aspects this is the most interesting part of the project...

Personally, I don't consider TX nor OK to be part of the South. I almost don't even care to do the rest of the nation; as you said, the South really is the most interesting element. Speaking of areas that aren't the South...


DC & MD have been added.

DC 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 87.3%
MD 2012 statewide share of the white vote for Obama: 45.7%

It's an eternal question - whether Texas and Oklahoma are South or West? IMHO - both. But they are no less southern then Maryland is)))

I would argue Texas north and east of San Antonio is unambiguously the South.  Oklahoma is primarily in the Midwest, save for OK-02.  Regarding MD, the Eastern Shore is clearly still Southern and the DC suburbs clearly are not.  Baltimore is surprisingly ambiguous.  Its political behavior is more consistent with an Upper South metro area than with the Northeast.  But more than half the population lives in areas that are clearly not Southern as of 2010, so I am going to say it belongs in the North now.

Areas north of San Antonio generally do not feel like the South. The I-35 corridor from Austin through Waco to the DFW Metroplex is certainly not like the Deep South to its east. The are some elements of the Appalachian South, but the attitudes include a lot of the frontier thinking of the West. It's more like a merger of the southern Plains and the Ozark hills with just a bit of Mexican influence. For me it's the area that is uniquely and quintessentially Texas.

I certainly agree that Texas from Houston west is not like the Deep South.  However, it is pretty equivalent to places like Nashville, Richmond and Charlotte that have generally maintained an Upper South feel even with massive population growth.  And a substantial portion of the recent migrants to such places moved there in part because they admire the Southern lifestyle.

[Skill and Chance]

Yeah, sorry: that was a typo from where I copied/pasted the original DC update.

Delaware: 48.4%
DC: 87.3%

Delaware being left of Maryland really surprises me.

[Skill and Chance]

And just for quick reference thus far, a map showing who won the white vote by county. Because of there being a greater likelihood of a county's white share of the vote for Obama being under-represented than over-represented, it displays all counties where Obama won 48% of the white vote or more.

Interesting, so Allegheny and Fairfax were <50% wins for Obama?

[Skill and Chance]

Is there any specific reason why Kosciusko, Indiana is so Republican?

The only thing that really stuck out to me demographically was this from the 2000 Census:

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So that means lots of stay-at-home moms?  Or are the medians calculated only among those with incomes?