Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Njall]

The writ is widely expected to be dropped tomorrow.  That will put E-day on May 5th.

The Progressive Conservatives, now led by Jim Prentice, will have nearly completed their 44th year in power by the time the election is held.  Although there is technically a fixed election date law in effect, which would put the election between March 1 and May 31, 2016, the Lieutenant Governor still has the authority to dissolve the legislature and call an election at any time.  The PC government has recently introduced a 10-year fiscal plan to get Alberta off of the "resource revenue rollercoaster," which will see smaller increases in spending than initially budgeted, certain tax increases to make the province's revenue base more stable, and much more resource revenue directed into the province's sovereign wealth fund (the Heritage Fund).  This represents a fundamental shift in the government's conduct around fiscal and budgetary measures, and by all accounts, Premier Prentice wants to give the plan democratic legitimacy by calling a snap election and using the fiscal plan as the PC Party's vision for the future.

At the same time, the opposition parties in Alberta are more-or-less in disarray.  The Wildrose Party, now under the leadership of Brian Jean (former MP for Fort McMurray--Athabasca) is still attempting to recover from the devastating events of last year, when Danielle Smith and most of the WRP caucus crossed the floor to join the PCs.  Broadcasting a fierce "no new taxes"-type message, the party seems to be recovering some lost ground, but they are still far away from the point they were at at this time last year.

The Alberta Liberal Party, under the interim leadership of Dr. David Swann (MLA for Calgary-Mountain View) still seems to be on the slow-but-sure path to obscurity.  In the two elections, the party has largely gotten by on the strength and popularity of their incumbents, who in recent years have been described as more of a like-minded collection of independents, winning more due to individual name recognition and popularity than support for the party.  The party itself has been in 4th place in terms of fundraising for some time now, and has been attracting few credible candidates.  Additionally, in this election only two of its five incumbents (David Swann and Laurie Blakeman) are running for re-election; former leader Raj Sherman is retiring, and current MLAs Kent Hehr and Darshan Kang are both running for the federal Liberals in the October election.

Finally, we come to the Alberta NDP, which seems to be the only thriving opposition party as of late.  Now under the leadership of Rachel Notley (MLA for Edmonton-Strathcona and daughter of former ABNDP leader Grant Notley), the party is riding high (relatively speaking) in the polls.  This is particularly true in Edmonton, where the party has been leading the PCs in opinion polling for the last few months at least.  The NDP have currently nominated the most candidates out of any of the opposition parties, and appear fully prepared for the coming election.



If I were to make a prediction right now, I would guess that the PCs will win another majority, with around 60-70 seats (out of 87).  I'll hazard a guess that the NDP will win official opposition, gaining between 4 and 10 seats (mostly in Edmonton), which would put them at 8 to 14 seats overall.  The Wildrose Party will probably end up in 3rd place; I think that they'll lose one or both of the seats where they have retiring incumbents, but they may re-gain a few rural southern seats that they won in 2012 but lost to floor-crossings.  With regard to the Liberals, they have a good chance of keeping the two seats where they have incumbents, but I honestly can't say if they have a chance of even keeping the seats where they have retiring incumbents.  Finally, I doubt that other parties (the Alberta Party, the Green Party, etc.) will gain any seats.  If the Alberta Party focuses all of their resources on the campaign of their leader (Greg Clark) in Calgary-Elbow, then they may have a shot there, but that's really their only potential pick-up opportunity.

[lilTommy]

I can see the NDP moving into Third if Wildrose does better then expected or Official Opposition if Wildrose tanks.
The NDP was a head in Edmonton from Polling I saw, and I think the party has a strong shot at two seats outside of Edmonton if they perform well (Joe Ceci in Calgary Fort and Shannon Phillips in Lethbridge West)

PCs 31 %
Wildrose 27 %
NDP 22 %
Liberals 14 %
Alberta Party 2 %
Other 5 %

http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/canadian-politics/wildrose-growing-support-in-alberta-polls-as-battle-against-governing-tories-looms

http://daveberta.ca/ - my go-to for Alberta Politics

[Njall]

The NDP is certainly doing quite well in Edmonton, and I could easily see them picking up a number of seats (Edmonton-Gold Bar, Edmonton-Glenora, Edmonton-Riverview, Edmonton-Manning, and Edmonton-Decore all leap to mind).  Outside of Edmonton, I would be pretty surprised if Shannon Phillips lost, as she only lost by about 7 points in 2012, and seems to have lots of support in that area.  Joe Ceci will have a much tougher time in Calgary-Fort, as the NDP have next-to-no base in Calgary.  With that said, if anyone can win for the NDP in Calgary, it's him.  Given that he represented most of that area on city council for 15 years, he puts the riding into play at the very least.

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary-Fort doesn't seem like the kind of area that would ever vote NDP.  That part of the city was one of the worst areas for Nenshi, for example.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP did somehow win 2 seats in Calgary back in 1989 though:

[DL]

Calgary-Fort doesn't seem like the kind of area that would ever vote NDP.  That part of the city was one of the worst areas for Nenshi, for example.

Its actually considered a low income riding by Calgary standards and it overlaps with one of the seats that went NDP in 1986 and 1989

[136or142]

Could be a forthold for the NDP in Calgary, especially if the Liberals all but disappear and the Alberta Party doesn't take off.

[Boston Bread]

So many provincial election threads.
It's funny that Alberta will probably be more competitive than any other provincial election in 2015. (NFLD and PEI will see easy liberal sweeps)

[DL]

The NDP did somehow win 2 seats in Calgary back in 1989 though:

Where could i get my hands on the Alberta election results from 1986 and 1989 - I have been googling like mad and can't find those

[Krago]

Where could i get my hands on the Alberta election results from 1986 and 1989 - I have been googling like mad and can't find those

www.elections.ab.ca/Public Website/files/Documents/Summary of Results by ED 1982-2012.xls


P.S. Check out the 1986 result in Calgary-Mountain View.

[Hatman 🍁]

There's also this site, which has maps: http://wayback.archive-it.org/2217/20101208160520/http://www.abheritage.ca/abpolitics/process/election_results.html#

[Boston Bread]

If I were to make a prediction right now, I would guess that the PCs will win another majority, with around 60-70 seats (out of 87).

The one party state of Alberta should just abolish elections like its fellow one party states around the globe.

Blame FPTP more than anything, there are several occasions where PC got under 50%.

[DC Al Fine]

Obligatory Vote Compass screenshot

[136or142]

All the party leaders are at 0%, that seems about right.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Huh, so the Alberta Greens are leftier than thee NDP? Interesting

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

[King of Kensington]

Funny how Alberta is one of the bright spots for the NDP nowadays.

[Boston Bread]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

I tried to make you see the light on this before. An Alberta-Liberal or Liberal-NDP merger I would gladly take. The status quo won't change anything.

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't support the Liberals merging with the NDP, of course. But the existence of the Alberta Party is ridiculous.

[DC Al Fine]

I wouldn't support the Liberals merging with the NDP, of course. But the existence of the Alberta Party is ridiculous.

Indeed. I think a lot of well-meaning lefties don't really think past opposition to Harper/other right wingers when advocating merger. The differences between Liberal and NDP are considerable.

[DL]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

In what way is the Alberta Party a "left wing party"? I heard they were a right wing offshoot of the Alberta Liberals and that Danielle Smith considered joining them.

[Njall]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

In what way is the Alberta Party a "left wing party"? I heard they were a right wing offshoot of the Alberta Liberals and that Danielle Smith considered joining them.

Ever since 2010, the Alberta Party has been presenting themselves as a moderate, pragmatic, and progressive alternative to the existing political parties in Alberta.  Many see them as a "liberal party without the word 'liberal' in their name."

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

In what way is the Alberta Party a "left wing party"? I heard they were a right wing offshoot of the Alberta Liberals and that Danielle Smith considered joining them.

My comment was in reference to the Vote Compass chart, which shows them on the left side of the chart. Whether or not they actually are a "left wing" party is a matter of opinion. My point still stands, there are four major parties to the left on the PCs, and the Alberta Party and the Liberals are centre or centre-left and the fact that there is two parties in that region of the political spectrum is non nonsensical.

[Talleyrand]

I don't know much about Alberta politics, but a quick Google search was pretty nauseating in regard to how it portrayed this election as a "done deal" and claimed the real battle was for second place. I don't doubt that the PCs are probably favored, but this certainly doesn't help move provincial politics any further from a one-party hegemony I'd assume...

[the506]

New poll from some outfit called ThinkHQ, as reported by the Calgary Sun. Take it for what it's worth.

Wildrose 31
NDP 26
PC 25
Liberal 12
Alberta Party 5