Haiti 2015 elections thread: Parliament (9/8) and President and Local (25/10)

[politicus]

After having delayed elections for 3 years Haiti will be holding a parliamentary election on August 9 and they are electing a replacement for term limited Sweet Mickey on October 25 with a second round on December 27 if necessary. Second round of the parliamentary election also on October 25.

They have an absurd number of parties run by different strongmen or front figures for strongmen and more than 2000 candidates for Parliament and 50 people running for President. It is possible to link about half of them back to either a pro-Aristide or anti-Aristide tradition, and some back to pro-Duvalier circles etc., but apart from that hard to make sense of. Still, I thought we should have a thread for results, strange events (unavoidable in Haiti) etc.

Do any of you Francophones have access to some accurate info?

Sweet Mickey poster:

[politicus]

Former PM Lauren Lamothe blocked on a technicality. Lacked a document certifying he had not stolen money as a public official! Not possible to get it without a sitting Parliament.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/06/03/us-haiti-election-idUSKBN0OJ2XM20150603

[politicus]

News and some background on  Haiti LIBRE:
http://www.haitilibre.com/en/cat-13-elections-1.html

If you speak French (there is also bit of Kreole):

http://www.haitipolitik.com/

Willy Duchene from the Haitian Republican Party has been barred from running after it was discovered he was a US citizen (voting in Florida in 1995,). No info on whether he voted Republican

[Famous Mortimer]

Haiti doesn't have any really organized parties and the only real ideological bloc is the pro-Aristide left, who are split into about 5 different groups. The media probably won't go through the trouble of figuring out who is who until about a day before the election.

Educated guess though: I expect Jude Célestin will win. He came in either second or third last time. He was the protege of then incumbent president René Préval, who himself was the protege of Aristide. The pro-Preval bloc has the benefit of being left-wing (which gets the votes) but being slightly estranged from Aristide himself (which makes the powers that be less likely to block their ascension).

I expect the current president as well as Aristide himself will also have proxies. I don't expect either to do well. The president is unpopular and last time the "if I win, I'll invite Aristide back, resign, and endorse him" candidate only won 5%.

[politicus]

I expect the current president as well as Aristide himself will also have proxies. I don't expect either to do well. The president is unpopular and last time the "if I win, I'll invite Aristide back, resign, and endorse him" candidate only won 5%.

Actually Sweet Mickey remains fairly popular - or was at least earlier this year:

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article17053712.html

Regarding ideological "blocs" the Duvallerists are also a factor. Sweet Mickey has very close contacts to them and they have loyal supporters.

[politicus]

Regarding left and right the result from last time is interesting:

1st round

Mirlande Manigat, Rally of Progressive National Democrats (SoCon, Nationalist right wing) 31.4
Jude Célestin, Unity (Soft Left) 22.5
Michel "Sweet Mickey" Martelly, Peasant Response (Populist) 21.8


2nd round

Michel Martelly 67.6
Mirlande Manigat 31.7
Against all 0.7

Former first lady Profesor Mirlande Manigat topped the poll in the first round, but failed to increase at all in the second. Her and her late husband Leslie Manigats party (which seems to be one of the more "real" ones) is in a new alliance - but I have not been able to find out who they are backing.

After widespread rioting Celestin was pressured into not running in the second round by OAS (on rather questionable grounds) and Manigat failed to increase her share at all in a second round deemed generally fair.

Preval was not popular when he left office, not sure about today. Still, there is clearly a ceiling on how high a Conservative candidate can go, so it will be a "Leftist"/populist of sorts.

Anyway, pols can rise out of nowhere in Haiti and all the bans on potential candidates makes it even more blurred.

[politicus]

Parties running comprehensive candidate lists:


Non-Aristidist left

#Patriotic Unity (Inite Patriyotik), new merger of Inite (Préval's party) + two other small groups.

Truth (Vérité ) a new party founded by René Préval and his supporters.

Fusion of Haitian Social Democrats (founded by Serge Gilles in 2006), seems to be unaffiliated with Preval.


Pro-Aristide left

Fanmi Lavalas (Aristides party, first time they are allowed to run post-2004 I believe)

Renmen Ayiti, former Aristide proxy party, current loyalty unknown.


Centrists

#Struggling People's Organization (Òganizasyon Pèp Kap Lité,), the original Lavalas party from which the Aristide loyalists split in 1997. Has drifted rightwards since. Moderate heroes. Supported the government of Jacques-Édouard Alexis 2006-08.


Right wing

#Patriotic Movement of the Democratic Opposition (MOPOD), alliance centered around Mirlande Manigat's Rally of Progressive National Democrats.

#Peasant Platform Platfòm Peyizan, Sweet Mickey's party, (crypto-)Duvallerist and (agrarian-)populist

Christian Movement for a New Haiti, Evangelical SoCons, joined MOPOD in 2013, but are running their own list.

#Haiti in Action, right wing, Haiti First/Black pride, federalists based in Artibonite in Northern Haiti.

Respect (Respé) , Conservative/populist party of wealthy Mulatto industrialist Charles Henri Baker, who finished third in 2006, did worse in 2010, but is running again.


Others:

Haitian Party Tèt Kale (Parti Haïtien Tèt Kale), Platfòm Pitit Dessalines, PPG18, #Convention for Democratic Unity, #Pont.


# parties apparently not running in the presidential election (or doing so through a front party/alliance - Vérité tried to run, but their candidate was barred.

[Famous Mortimer]

Renmen Ayiti was the Aristide proxy party whose candidate Jean-Henry Céant campaigned on a platform that he would resign and allow Aristide to come back as president.

Presumably Jean-Henry Céant is it in for himself now.

That's another thing that makes Haitian politics confusing, every major figure founds a new party each election but the old parties often stay around.

You can see the same thing happening with Préval's old party and his new party.

[Famous Mortimer]

Also, I wouldn't say the Rally of Progressive National Democrats is right-wing. I wouldn't say that description was inaccurate either. That just wouldn't be the first way I'd classify them.

I'd say they're more of a third world oppositionist party. They support the concept of democracy and don't have much of a platform besides that.

[politicus]

Also, I wouldn't say the Rally of Progressive National Democrats is right-wing. I wouldn't say that description was inaccurate either. That just wouldn't be the first way I'd classify them.

I'd say they're more of a third world oppositionist party. They support the concept of democracy and don't have much of a platform besides that.

You may be right, but I have some reasons to call them Conservatives:

One of the few things in Haitian politics that seems to be fairly ideological is whether you are a SoCon or not - and Manigat is a SoCon. Structurally the Manigat's were running against Preval and then his chosen heir - so at least anti-left . Her husband was the invention of Duvallists from the military (who quickly got tired of him and toppled him, but still) and they seem to be backed by the (mainly Mulatto) upper middle class, so in some way they are on the right wing. At least on the "vested interests & respectable people" vs. proletarians/paupers scale. Clearly anti-Aristide.

[politicus]

Of the 70 candidates originally trying to get on the ballot 15 are out - among them the Verite candidate and ex-PM Lamothe.

Candidates from parties we know to actually be able to field candidate list (and therefore presumably with some support) + Jude Celestin in bold. Indies excluded:

Jean Bony Alexandre (Concorde Nationale)
Amos Andre (Front Uni Pour la Renaissance d'Haiti)
Michel Andre (Plateforme Jistis)
Charles Henri Baker (Respect)
Renold Jean Claude Bazin (Christian Movement for a New Haiti)
Irvenson Steven Benoit (Konviksyon)
Jean Bertin (Mouvement d'Union Republicaine)
Joseph Harry Bretous (Konbit pou Ayiti)
Emmanuel Joseph Georges Brunet (Plateforme Politique Entrenou)
Michel Fred Brutus (Parti Federaliste)
Jean Henry Ceant (Renmen Ayiti)
Jude Celestin (Ligue Alternative pour le Progres et l'Emancipation Haitienne)
Jean Herve Charles (Parti pour l'Evolution Nationale Haitienne)
Jean Ronald Cornely (Rassemblement des Patriotes Haitiens)
Kesler Dalmacy (Mopanou)
Yves Daniel (Pati Kreyol Nouye)
Luckner Desir (Mobilisation pour le Progres d'Haiti)
Simon Dieuseul Desras (Plateforme Politique Palmis)
Marc-Arthur Drouillard (Parti Unite Nationale)
Daniel Dupiton (Cohesion Nationale des Partis Politiques Haitiens)
Joseph G. Varnel Durandisse (Retabli Ayiti)
Vilaire Cluny Duroseau (Mouveman pou Endepandans Kiltirel Sosyal Ekonomik ak Politik an Ayiti)
Saveur Pierre Etienne (Oganizasyon Pep Kap Lite)
Nelson Flecourt (Olahh Baton Jenes La)
Aviol Fleurant (Nouvelle Haiti)
Marie Antoinette Gautier (Plan d'Action Citoyenne)
Dalvius Gerard (Parti Alternative pour le Developpement d'Haiti)
Eric Jean Baptiste (Mouvement Action Socialiste)
Jean-Chavannes Jeune (Canaan)
Chavannes Jean Baptiste (Konbit Travaye Peyizan pou Libere Haiti)
Maxo Joseph (Rassemblement des Nationaux Democrates Volontaires pour l'Unite Salvatrice)
Antoine Joseph (Delivrans)
Rene Julien (Action Democratique pour Batir Haiti)
Steeve Khawly (Reseau Bouclier National)
Fresnel Larosliere (Mouvement pour l'Instauration de la Democratie en Haiti)
Jephthé Lucien (Parti Socialiste Unifie Haitien)
Samuel Madistin (Mouvement Patriotique Populaire Dessalinien)
Roland Magloire (Parti Democrate Institutionnaliste)
Jean Paleme Mathurin (Plateforme Politique G18)
Jovenel Moise (Parti Haitien Tet Kale)
Jean-Charles Moise (Platfom Pitit Dessalinés)
Maryse Narcisse (Fanmi Lavalas)
Michelet Nestor (Coalition pour la Convention de la Reconstruction de la Reconciliation des Citoyens Haitiens)
Mathias Pierre (Konsyans Patriyotik)
Jean Poncy (Regeneration Economique et Sociale dans l'Unité et la Liberté Totale d'Action pour Tous)
Westner Polycarpe (Mouvman Revolisyone Ayisyen)
Jean Clarens Renois (Union Nationale pour l'Integrité et la Reconciliation)
Joe Marie Judie Roy (Regroupement Patriotique pour le Renouveau National)
Jacques Sampeur (Konbit Liberasyon Ekonomik)
Jean Chevalier Sanon (Parti Nationaliste Chretien d'Haiti)
Newton Louis St Juste (Fwon Revolisyone pou Entegrasyon Mas Yo)
Beauzile Edmone Supplice (Fusion of Haitian Social Democrats)
Jean Wiener Theagene (Parti pour la Renovation d'Haiti)

[Oak Hills]

Any idea why Haiti has such a ridiculously huge number of parties?

[politicus]

Any idea why Haiti has such a ridiculously huge number of parties?

They are not parties in the traditional sense, but just a charismatic/powerful leader and his followers calling themselves something without much in the way of a party structure.

Not sure why leaders prefer to start new ones all the time instead of taking over existing ones. I guess the chance to mobilize cadres/followers in the slums or villages around an exciting new thing plays a role. Middle class parties on the right wing seems to be somewhat more stable over time (leaders keeping their operations going under the same brand).

Some parties do exist over longer time, but it is relatively rare for a party to continue more than a decade and many exists for only a couple of years even if they get represented in parliament.

[politicus]

An important reason (perhaps the main one for the small ones) is that parties are business opportunities. In the banale sense as sellers of banners and T-shirts etc.(no idea in letting you supporters reuse old ones) and by attracting foreign donors. Sometimes you need to relauch the product to keep the overseas customers interested.

http://www.potomitan.info/vedrine/political.php

[politicus]

A poll from the BRIDES research institute shows the presidential vote being extremely spread out. 14 candidates gets 1%+ only one above 10%.

1. Jude CELESTIN (LAPEH) 15.1
2. Jean-Charles MOISE (PITIT DESSALINES) 9.6
3. Would vote blank 7.8
4. Jovenel MOISE (P.H.T.K) 6.1
5. Maryse NARCISSE (FANMI LAVALAS) 4.6
6. Irvenson Steven BENOIT (KONVIKSYON) 3.2
7. Sauveur Pierre ETIENNE (OPL) 3.0
8. Charles Henri Jn Marie BAKER (RESPE) 2.5
9. Chavannes JEAN BAPTISTE (KONTRAPEPLA) 2.0
10. Simon Dieuseul DESRAS (PALMIS) 1.5
11. Jean-Chavannes JEUNE (CANAAN) 1.3
12. Jean Clarens RENOIS (UNIR-AYITI INI) 1.3
13. Michel ANDRE (PLATEFORME-JISTIS) 1.1
14. Eric JEAN BAPTISTE (M.A.S) 1.0
15. Beauzile Edmonde SUPPLICE (FUSION) 1.0

[politicus]

Fusion of Social Democrats ministers Victor Benoit, Minister of Social Affairs and Labour, Yves Rose Morquette, Minister for the Status of Women and Women's Rights and Mozart Clerisson, Secretary of State for Literacy, have resigned from the government. Officially citing some lewd and inappropriate comments the President said to a woman during a rally, but former Senator Edmonde Supplice Beauzile is a candidate for President for FUSION and needs to distance himself from Sweet Mickey.

[politicus]

Lots of violence and irregularities. Turnout expected to be less than 15%.. No results yet.

http://news.yahoo.com/violence-low-turnout-threaten-haitis-sunday-elections-035425298.html

[politicus]

OAS observers deem the process to be valid despite the fact that 54 polling stations, roughly 5% of the total, were closed due to violence and "other disruptions" and some polling stations opened late and/or closed early. It will probably take another week before we get the result. Not even a final turnout yet, but around 15% is the current estimate.

[StateBoiler]

Regarding left and right the result from last time is interesting:

1st round

Mirlande Manigat, Rally of Progressive National Democrats (SoCon, Nationalist right wing) 31.4
Jude Célestin, Unity (Soft Left) 22.5
Michel "Sweet Mickey" Martelly, Peasant Response (Populist) 21.8


2nd round

Michel Martelly 67.6
Mirlande Manigat 31.7
Against all 0.7

Former first lady Profesor Mirlande Manigat topped the poll in the first round, but failed to increase at all in the second. Her and her late husband Leslie Manigats party (which seems to be one of the more "real" ones) is in a new alliance - but I have not been able to find out who they are backing.

After widespread rioting Celestin was pressured into not running in the second round by OAS (on rather questionable grounds) and Manigat failed to increase her share at all in a second round deemed generally fair.

Preval as president spent government money on Celestin (a relative unknown at the time)'s campaign, there was widespread reports of vote rigging, and I think Manigat and Martelly both refused to acknowledge Celestin finishing 2nd in the 1st round. Celestin agreed to back down at the OAS' urging.

[politicus]

Regarding left and right the result from last time is interesting:

1st round

Mirlande Manigat, Rally of Progressive National Democrats (SoCon, Nationalist right wing) 31.4
Jude Célestin, Unity (Soft Left) 22.5
Michel "Sweet Mickey" Martelly, Peasant Response (Populist) 21.8


2nd round

Michel Martelly 67.6
Mirlande Manigat 31.7
Against all 0.7

Former first lady Profesor Mirlande Manigat topped the poll in the first round, but failed to increase at all in the second. Her and her late husband Leslie Manigats party (which seems to be one of the more "real" ones) is in a new alliance - but I have not been able to find out who they are backing.

After widespread rioting Celestin was pressured into not running in the second round by OAS (on rather questionable grounds) and Manigat failed to increase her share at all in a second round deemed generally fair.

Preval as president spent government money on Celestin (a relative unknown at the time)'s campaign, there was widespread reports of vote rigging, and I think Manigat and Martelly both refused to acknowledge Celestin finishing 2nd in the 1st round. Celestin agreed to back down at the OAS' urging.

That constitutes "rather questionable grounds" in a Haitian context (any government would use public money to back their preferred candidate) and the "urging" was backed by massive American pressure. Manigat initially protested against the result, but later acknowledged it.

The most interesting fact, however, is Manigat not increasing at all in round two. It shows the limit of the right wing (second round was fair and her result in the first round was not inflated).

[StateBoiler]

Regarding left and right the result from last time is interesting:

1st round

Mirlande Manigat, Rally of Progressive National Democrats (SoCon, Nationalist right wing) 31.4
Jude Célestin, Unity (Soft Left) 22.5
Michel "Sweet Mickey" Martelly, Peasant Response (Populist) 21.8


2nd round

Michel Martelly 67.6
Mirlande Manigat 31.7
Against all 0.7

Former first lady Profesor Mirlande Manigat topped the poll in the first round, but failed to increase at all in the second. Her and her late husband Leslie Manigats party (which seems to be one of the more "real" ones) is in a new alliance - but I have not been able to find out who they are backing.

After widespread rioting Celestin was pressured into not running in the second round by OAS (on rather questionable grounds) and Manigat failed to increase her share at all in a second round deemed generally fair.

Preval as president spent government money on Celestin (a relative unknown at the time)'s campaign, there was widespread reports of vote rigging, and I think Manigat and Martelly both refused to acknowledge Celestin finishing 2nd in the 1st round. Celestin agreed to back down at the OAS' urging.

That constitutes "rather questionable grounds" in a Haitian context (any government would use public money to back their preferred candidate) and the "urging" was backed by massive American pressure. Manigat initially protested against the result, but later acknowledged it.

The most interesting fact, however, is Manigat not increasing at all in round two. It shows the limit of the right wing (second round was fair and her result in the first round was not inflated).

Allright then. The OAS could've stood by and allowed a civil war to take place. http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-2005-haiti-politic-boniface-alexandre-evokes-a-risk-of-civil-war-in-haiti.html

[politicus]

Boniface Alexandre is not exactly an unbiased source. Some parts of the Haitian elite had strong interests in an intervention.

(but since this thread should be about the current election, there is no point in discussing it further)

[politicus]

Preliminary results, no Senators and only a handful of Deputies managed to get elected in the first round. The second round is on October 25, along with presidential and local elections.

http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-14899-haiti-flash-complete-results-of-the-elections-of-august-9-2015.html

First round winners:

Gracia Delva, PHTK, Dessalines (West)  61.1%
Cholzer Chancy, AAA, Ennery (West) 67.0%
A Rondon Bien Aimé, PHTK, Cerca-Carvajal/Quartier de los Palis (Centre) 76.7%
Rony Celestin, PHTK, Cerca la Source (Centre) 64.8%
Anouce Jhon Bernard, PHTK, Beaumon (Grand Anse) 51.5%.

[politicus]

Re-election i 25 constituencies due to violence. Turnout was 18%, only 10% in the Port au Prince region.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/world/americas/haiti/article31660835.html