Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Njall]

New poll from some outfit called ThinkHQ, as reported by the Calgary Sun. Take it for what it's worth.

Wildrose 31
NDP 26
PC 25
Liberal 12
Alberta Party 5

For what it's worth, that's the result amongst decided voters.  25% of the whole sample was undecided.

[Boston Bread]

In even more surprising news, 1abvote believes the NDP are actually leading:

http://1abvote.ca/poll-pcs-drop-to-3rd-as-writ-props/

29% NDP
24% Wildrose
23% PC
15% Liberal
9% Alberta

1abvote doesn't seem like a reliable polling outfit, though. It admits "IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS (its method of polling) MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA".

[MaxQue]

In even more surprising news, 1abvote believes the NDP are actually leading:

http://1abvote.ca/poll-pcs-drop-to-3rd-as-writ-props/

29% NDP
24% Wildrose
23% PC
15% Liberal
9% Alberta

1abvote doesn't seem like a reliable polling outfit, though. It admits "IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS (its method of polling) MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA".

They also say than the phone polls skew right and than the truth is "in the middle". Wierd, but really, I don'y any reason to trust either them or the real pollsters, given the last election polling.

[RogueBeaver]

Even the pollsters themselves don't think this will hold. Which isn't to say the dynasty isn't a bit itchy.

[DC Al Fine]

WTF is up with the polls lately?

[DC Al Fine]

I mean surely Prentice had some internal polls showing him ahead.

[lilTommy]

In even more surprising news, 1abvote believes the NDP are actually leading:

http://1abvote.ca/poll-pcs-drop-to-3rd-as-writ-props/

29% NDP
24% Wildrose
23% PC
15% Liberal
9% Alberta

1abvote doesn't seem like a reliable polling outfit, though. It admits "IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS (its method of polling) MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA".

They also say than the phone polls skew right and than the truth is "in the middle". Wierd, but really, I don'y any reason to trust either them or the real pollsters, given the last election polling.

Also, if this poll is heavily centered in Edmonton, this is likely accurate as the NDP have been polling ahead or tied in the capital for a few months now I believe.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let me know when we have a non-joke poll come out

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Just for lols, what would a map of that 1abvote 'poll' look like? How would it translate to seats?

[RogueBeaver]

308 projection: tiny PC majority even with 31%.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for lols, what would a map of that 1abvote 'poll' look like? How would it translate to seats?

I'll take a stab at it perhaps.

I'm looking at the cross tabs, and they have a huge sample of under 35s. This is obviously skewing the data, even if it's being weighted. Also, to get such a huge sample of young people, they're probably buying some opt-in panel junk. And we know from the Ontario election that opt in panel surveys are terrible for political polling.

[adma]

308 projection: tiny PC majority even with 31%.

That Alberta Liberal seat projection looks a little high, given the disarray I sense out there...

[Hatman 🍁]

There Liberals are going to have a hard time even fielding a full slate. They're less than half way there at the moment.

[DL]

Another poll is out from Mainstreet Technologies - this one is IVR while ThinkHQ was online - results are almost identical. Among decided voters:

Wildrose - 31%
PC - 27%
NDP - 26%
Liberals - 12%
AP - 3%

In Edmongton the NDP is at an eye-popping 52% - 31 points ahead of the PCs!!
http://www.mainstreettechnologies.ca/wildrose-leads-ndp-gains/

[lilTommy]

Another poll is out from Mainstreet Technologies - this one is IVR while ThinkHQ was online - results are almost identical. Among decided voters:

Wildrose - 31%
PC - 27%
NDP - 26%
Liberals - 12%
AP - 3%

In Edmongton the NDP is at an eye-popping 52% - 31 points ahead of the PCs!!
http://www.mainstreettechnologies.ca/wildrose-leads-ndp-gains/

At 52% in Edmonton for the NDP, even Laurie Blakeman has to be worried! I still think she will be the only Liberal MLA left after the election.

Lets all remember the last Alberta election polling though... this does look like a strong overall trend for the NDP but the PCs are probably polling lower then they will actually end up with, Wildrose higher.

[DL]

Laurie Blakeman had a chance to join the Alberta NDP when Notley became leader and she refused...now I'll bet she is kicking herself. With numbers like this she could easily be swept away as the "Orange Crush" flushes away all others in Edmonton - Quebec 2011-style!

[Hatman 🍁]

Are there any potential NDP targets outside of Edmonton (except Lethbridge West and *maybe* Calgary-Fort) ?

[lilTommy]

Are there any potential NDP targets outside of Edmonton (except Lethbridge West and *maybe* Calgary-Fort) ?

The NDP polled above their province wide vote (9%) in 2012 in (all above 10%):

Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater
Wetaskiwin-Camrose
Lethbridge East

I'm sure the NDP would love to win Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley (just over 9% mostly for the name, since the riding is named after NDP leader Rachel Notley's father who represented the area)

The NDP themselves have mentioned Calgary Varsity and Calgary McCall
http://www.660news.com/2015/04/08/ndp-hold-rally-in-inner-city-riding-thats-standing-room-only/

I think it will come down to candidates as well, if there is a strong NDP candidate that might help.

in Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater the NDP is running Colin Piquette, son of former NDP MLA Leo Piquette... so maybe?

[Boston Bread]

Are there any potential NDP targets outside of Edmonton (except Lethbridge West and *maybe* Calgary-Fort) ?

Current 308 projection has NDP ahead in Red Deer-South and Calgary Klein.

[Sumner 1868]

Laurie Blakeman had a chance to join the Alberta NDP when Notley became leader and she refused...now I'll bet she is kicking herself. With numbers like this she could easily be swept away as the "Orange Crush" flushes away all others in Edmonton - Quebec 2011-style!

But would the NDP have these numbers without Notley?

[lilTommy]

Laurie Blakeman had a chance to join the Alberta NDP when Notley became leader and she refused...now I'll bet she is kicking herself. With numbers like this she could easily be swept away as the "Orange Crush" flushes away all others in Edmonton - Quebec 2011-style!

But would the NDP have these numbers without Notley?

Probably not; but even before she won the leadership the NDP was polling well, 18-20+ in Edmonton so they were bound to do better then 2012 even if Mason had stayed but not as well as they are now in a perfect storm situation for the NDP (very weak Liberal party, popular and strong leader, divided right-wing)

[Hatman 🍁]

Are there any potential NDP targets outside of Edmonton (except Lethbridge West and *maybe* Calgary-Fort) ?

Current 308 projection has NDP ahead in Red Deer-South and Calgary Klein.

Please don't answer my questions by citing that site. I asked for actual targets, not magic math.

[Boston Bread]

Please don't answer my questions by citing that site. I asked for actual targets, not magic math.

Maybe when you have your projection set up I'll cite that. If it's not too biased for the NDP, that is

[the506]

My hastily whipped up model (guaranteed wrong or your money back) has them taking 4 Calgary seats, Athabasca and both seats in each of Lethbridge and Red Deer.

[lilTommy]

My hastily whipped up model (guaranteed wrong or your money back) has them taking 4 Calgary seats, Athabasca and both seats in each of Lethbridge and Red Deer.

... everything but Red Deer feels plausible to me, if they poll this well come election day