Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[DC Al Fine]

Just for lols, what would a map of that 1abvote 'poll' look like? How would it translate to seats?

My model doesn't include the Alberta party but...

Wildrose: 33
NDP: 28
PC: 18
Lib: 8

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for lols, what would a map of that 1abvote 'poll' look like? How would it translate to seats?

Ok, so using a proportional swing from the last election, we get this map:





Seats are:

WRP - 30
NDP - 23
PC - 23
Lib - 10
AP - 1


ETA: I used the regional cross tabs, which I assume DC did not.

[RogueBeaver]

Braid on the dynastic strategy: demonize your opponents as extreme for adopting your own past and present policies.

[Hatman 🍁]

What in the heck is happening in Alberta?

I'm reading the comments sections of news articles (I know, I know) about the NDP surge, expecting a plethora of right wing trolls (as is customary), but instead, most comments are very pro-NDP....

[cp]

Optimistically? A new generation of Albertans (Millennials, internal migrants) are finally a large enough bloc to change things. Nenshi's campaign showed them a breakthrough was possible and the Redford resignation/Prentice coronation combined with the oil shock has suddenly made people consider making a genuine change.

Pessimistically? It's a fluke. A brief moment where the PC's had a bad week and a lot of polls were taken.

I think the second option is more realistic but I'd be lying if I said I didn't think there was just a little something that reminded me of what happened in Quebec in late April 2011.

[Njall]

My feeling is that the NDP surge will be more muted than people are expecting, this time around at least.  They'll probably win 10-15 seats in Edmonton, along with Lethbridge-West and possibly Calgary-Fort, which will bring them to official opposition status.  The next election (in 2019, most likely) will be one to watch, as the presence of a strong, progressive official opposition may cause the progressive vote to coalesce around the NDP.   

Furthermore, for the NDP  to break through in places like Calgary, it will probably take more than a single election.  Remember, the NDP's citywide popular vote in Calgary was less than 5% in Calgary in 2012.

[Hatman 🍁]

Does everything think Wildrose is going to implode?

[King of Kensington]

My feeling is that the NDP surge will be more muted than people are expecting, this time around at least.  They'll probably win 10-15 seats in Edmonton, along with Lethbridge-West and possibly Calgary-Fort, which will bring them to official opposition status.  The next election (in 2019, most likely) will be one to watch, as the presence of a strong, progressive official opposition may cause the progressive vote to coalesce around the NDP.   

Furthermore, for the NDP  to break through in places like Calgary, it will probably take more than a single election.  Remember, the NDP's citywide popular vote in Calgary was less than 5% in Calgary in 2012.

I agree with this assessment.

[adma]

Does everything think Wildrose is going to implode?

Dunno about *implode* (that's more like what the Alta Libs have done for however long); but it's certainly interesting that Wildrose and Brian Jean have been a bit of an enigma compared to Rachel's NDP thus far.  It's like whatever "leading" it's been doing, poll-wise, has simply been an extrapolation from their being the main/only "competitive" non-PC option last time...

[Njall]

Does everything think Wildrose is going to implode?

They'll probably keep the seats where they have incumbents, and might pick up a few of the southern rural seats that they used to hold (eg. Cardston-Taber-Warner or Little Bow).  Aside from that, it's hard to see them finding much success.

[Hatman 🍁]

Clearly Prentice is loathed big time right now. That has to help Wildrose.

We'll see though. I have a feeling the PCs are being underestimated in the polling again.

[the506]

New Forum poll. Pretty much same as the others (30-28-27-12), plus this whopper: Jim Prentice has a 22% approval rating. If that holds up....

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2004%2009)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

[You kip if you want to...]

Woah, what did Prentice do? I swear I was reading only a month ago that he was crazy popular.

[Hatman 🍁]

Knowing Forum Research, I'm surprised they don't have the NDP winning 0 seats with those numbers!

[adma]

For all the present disapproval, I suspect that Prentice will come across substantially "leaderlike" in campaign/debate mode--well. more likely than a Kim Campbell super-boner.

But again: among the competing leaders, *Brian Jean* is the present big enigma.

[DL]

i predict the Alberta PCs will come in third in votes and in seats!

[RogueBeaver]

I hope DL's right, but we'll see if these # hold up.

[Njall]

Woah, what did Prentice do? I swear I was reading only a month ago that he was crazy popular.

Everybody is mad about something in the recently-proposed budget.  Depending on the person, it could be one or more of the hike in sin taxes, the hike in the gasoline tax, the hike in income taxes on high-earners, the re-introduction of a health care premium, the absence of a hike in corporate taxes or a sales tax, the moderate spending cuts or the decisions to hold the line on spending (depending on ministry), etc.

I suspect/hope that some of these people will calm down as time passes, and once/if they realize how unsustainable and economically unwise the plans of the other parties are by comparison.

[RogueBeaver]

Or as Kinsella put it, the legislative equivalent of trying to suck and blow simultaneously.

[You kip if you want to...]

I bet Danielle Smith feels dumb huh.

[Poirot]

I'm not familiar with Alberta politics but it looks like the election was called right after a bad news budget? They didn't give time to people to digest it and do polling to evualate the reaction? Maybe the strategy is just to bet the other parties are not organized or credible enough.

[Sumner 1868]

Here's a delightful comment I found from a Wildrose supporter:

well for 40years I put the x by pc / stop/ we all bitch on the queen spending
now the king points his finger at us. well that’s it and if you vote for the might
blue . I want the people of this prov. to think of one thing .
when E. MANNING ran things he didn t put himself no he made dam sure
Albertans came 1st. so this coming election vote not for a party but for
someone who will work for this prov. funny when you look back jim d put
into law you can t spend what YOU DONT HAVE . SO IF YOU STILL WANT
WANT ALL THE DEBT VOTE BLUE .

[Boston Bread]

Here's a delightful comment I found from a Wildrose supporter:

well for 40years I put the x by pc / stop/ we all bitch on the queen spending
now the king points his finger at us. well that’s it and if you vote for the might
blue . I want the people of this prov. to think of one thing .
when E. MANNING ran things he didn t put himself no he made dam sure
Albertans came 1st. so this coming election vote not for a party but for
someone who will work for this prov. funny when you look back jim d put
into law you can t spend what YOU DONT HAVE . SO IF YOU STILL WANT
WANT ALL THE DEBT VOTE BLUE .

It looks like Alberta has its very own t_host.

[Bacon King]

Woah, what did Prentice do? I swear I was reading only a month ago that he was crazy popular.

Everybody is mad about something in the recently-proposed budget.  Depending on the person, it could be one or more of the hike in sin taxes, the hike in the gasoline tax, the hike in income taxes on high-earners, the re-introduction of a health care premium, the absence of a hike in corporate taxes or a sales tax, the moderate spending cuts or the decisions to hold the line on spending (depending on ministry), etc.

Somehow I don't feel that "piss off literally everyone just before announcing an election" is a very winning strategy

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The other parties can just make empty promises until after the election

[Njall]

I suspect/hope that some of these people will calm down as time passes, and once/if they realize how unsustainable and economically unwise the plans of the other parties are by comparison.

The other parties can just make empty promises until after the election

That seems to be the Wildrose campaign strategy at this point.  

I'm not familiar with Alberta politics but it looks like the election was called right after a bad news budget? They didn't give time to people to digest it and do polling to evualate the reaction? Maybe the strategy is just to bet the other parties are not organized or credible enough.

Betting on the organization and credibility of the other parties was certainly part of it.  The budget was also released alongside a 10-year fiscal plan to get Alberta back into surplus, to get Alberta off the "resource revenue rollercoaster," to start investing in the Heritage Fund again, etc.  It's really the long-term fiscal plan that the Party wants to focus the conversation on.  Unfortunately, some people are more concerned with the extra 4 cents per litre that they have to pay at the gas pump.