Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[DC Al Fine]

A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat

[Zanas]

A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat

I'm not sure they're that much disappointed. They end up clearly above of the PC, and it seems that Alberta doesn't have room for more than 2 main parties, at least not for a long time. If they get their act together and act credibly in the official opposition, they should end up grabbing a lot of the Tory vote come next election and either strenghten official opposition status and wipe the Tories out or even win government if the NDP f[inks] up.

[politicallefty]

Other than a slight overestimation of the NDP and slight underestimation of the PCs, I'd say the polling for this election was exceptional. All of the projections I saw have lined up quite well with the overall results.

Given how few Tories survived, is it safe to assume that all of the remaining former Wildrose floor-crossers have now been wiped out?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

I don't know too much about Albertan politics, aside from a brief history of the different periods of government. So, I was wondering, given Alberta's long history of conservatism:

• Did the incumbent government do something extremely bad to lose?
• Was it vote-splitting between the Tories and Wildrose?
• Or did people just want a change?

As I understand it, the recent dip in the oil market a few months back did major harm to Alberta's economy. The Tories attempted to solve this issue with their budget, which had something in it for EVERYONE to hate, including more than 50 different tax hikes. This plus the already surging NDP and Wildrose parties have created an election where nearly everyone has a reason to vote against the PC's and a genuine alternative option to vote for.

Also, the 50 tax hikes were all on people. Corporations had no change in taxes.

Thank you both, that makes a lot of sense. I would have voted Wildrose myself if I lived in Alberta, and I, like you both, would have found my bones to pick in the budget.

[Krago]

Check out the result in Poll 61 of Peace River.

http://results.elections.ab.ca/74.htm

If the numbers for AP and PC were accidentally switched, that means the 282-vote NDP victory turns into a 27-vote PC win.

[MaxQue]

A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat

Wildrose is quite happy, really. Result seems to be quite in line with expectations. Jean wasn't really campaigning to be Premier in the two last weeks, he decided to be quiet and get a solid foothold in rural Alberta instead.

[Hatman 🍁]

Check out the result in Poll 61 of Peace River.

http://results.elections.ab.ca/74.htm

If the numbers for AP and PC were accidentally switched, that means the 282-vote NDP victory turns into a 27-vote PC win.

Looks to be the case. I'd be expecting a recount.

[Nichlemn]

A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat

I wonder, if Danielle Smith hadn't jumped to the PCs, whether she would quite possibly have become Premier.

[136or142]

Other than a slight overestimation of the NDP and slight underestimation of the PCs, I'd say the polling for this election was exceptional. All of the projections I saw have lined up quite well with the overall results.

Given how few Tories survived, is it safe to assume that all of the remaining former Wildrose floor-crossers have now been wiped out?

I believe they said on the CBC that one was reelected.  I forget who though.

Edit, nope I guess one was leading, but that person lost in the end.
Albertans also punished the Wildrose floor-crossers in tonight's vote. All of the MLAs who migrated to the PCs last year lost their seats.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-2015-results-ndp-wave-sweeps-across-province-in-historic-win-1.3062605

[136or142]

A bittersweet election for Wildrose. If you had told them that they would salvage 20 seats in rural Alberta a couple months ago, they would have been ecstatic, but now it's a disappointing defeat

Wildrose is quite happy, really. Result seems to be quite in line with expectations. Jean wasn't really campaigning to be Premier in the two last weeks, he decided to be quiet and get a solid foothold in rural Alberta instead.

The Mike Harris P.Cs in Ontario were also happy with their result in 1990 where they also slipped in the popular vote but ended gaining a handful of seats from their previous election result.

[Hatman 🍁]

Other than a slight overestimation of the NDP and slight underestimation of the PCs, I'd say the polling for this election was exceptional. All of the projections I saw have lined up quite well with the overall results.

Given how few Tories survived, is it safe to assume that all of the remaining former Wildrose floor-crossers have now been wiped out?

I believe they said on the CBC that one was reelected.  I forget who though.

Edit, nope I guess one was leading, but that person lost in the end.
Albertans also punished the Wildrose floor-crossers in tonight's vote. All of the MLAs who migrated to the PCs last year lost their seats.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-2015-results-ndp-wave-sweeps-across-province-in-historic-win-1.3062605

Some of them did surprisingly well though, like in Chestermere-Rocky View, the only riding to see an increase in PC support.

[cp]

Apropos of nothing, with this unexpected win the number of conservative led governments in Canada is down to 4: BC, NL, Saskatchewan, and federally.

If the current polling holds it could be down to 2 by the end of the year.

[136or142]

Apropos of nothing, with this unexpected win the number of conservative led governments in Canada is down to 4: BC, NL, Saskatchewan, and federally.

If the current polling holds it could be down to 2 by the end of the year.

B.C is a 'free enterprise' coalition of Conservatives and blue Liberals.

[cp]

I know. I figured I'd count them as conservative for the purposes of left vs right dichotomy, though.

[Njall]

Other than a slight overestimation of the NDP and slight underestimation of the PCs, I'd say the polling for this election was exceptional. All of the projections I saw have lined up quite well with the overall results.

Given how few Tories survived, is it safe to assume that all of the remaining former Wildrose floor-crossers have now been wiped out?

I believe they said on the CBC that one was reelected.  I forget who though.

Edit, nope I guess one was leading, but that person lost in the end.
Albertans also punished the Wildrose floor-crossers in tonight's vote. All of the MLAs who migrated to the PCs last year lost their seats.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-2015-results-ndp-wave-sweeps-across-province-in-historic-win-1.3062605

Some of them did surprisingly well though, like in Chestermere-Rocky View, the only riding to see an increase in PC support.

Interestingly, Mike Ellis (Calgary-West) also saw an increase in vote share from the by-election last year.  Down about 3 points if you use 2012 as a reference point, but still impressive.

[Meeker]

Has anyone run the numbers on Stephen Harper's riding? Looks like the PCs got around 1/3 of the vote there.

[Hatman 🍁]

Has anyone run the numbers on Stephen Harper's riding? Looks like the PCs got around 1/3 of the vote there.

Just calculated it:

NDP: 33.1%
PC: 32.6%
WRP: 27.0%
ALP: 5.0%
AP: 2.3%
Oth: 0.1%

Note: This includes advance polls in only the ridings that are a majority in his riding, so it could be off a bit.

[Хahar 🤔]

Because I assume other people are interested, a review of what's happened in the ridings Wildrose won in 2012:

Airdrie: Rob Anderson won (after defecting from PCs in 2010), defected to PCs in 2014, did not seek PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Calgary-Fish Creek: Heather Forsyth won (after defecting from PCs in 2010), did not seek Wildrose nomination, PC gain with new candidate
Calgary-Shaw: Jeff Wilson won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, NDP gain
Cardston-Taber-Warner: Gary Bikman won, defected to PCs in 2014, failed to receive PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Chestermere-Rocky View: Bruce McAllister won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Cypress-Medicine Hat: Drew Barnes won, received Wildrose nomination, won in general election, Wildrose hold with same candidate
Drumheller-Stettler: Rick Strankman won, received Wildrose nomination, won in general election, Wildrose hold with same candidate
Highwood: Danielle Smith won, defected to PCs in 2014, failed to receive PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Innisfail-Sylvan Lake: Kerry Towle won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Lac La Biche-St. Paul-Two Hills: Shayne Saskiw won, did not seek reelection, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Lacombe-Ponoka: Rod Fox won, defected to PCs in 2014, failed to receive PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Little Bow: Ian Donovan won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Livingstone-Macleod: Pat Stier won, received Wildrose nomination, won in general election, Wildrose hold with same candidate
Medicine Hat: Blake Pedersen won, defected to PCs in 2014, won PC nomination, defeated in general election, NDP gain
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: Bruce Rowe won, defected to PCs in 2014, did not seek PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre: Joe Anglin won, left Wildrose in 2014, failed to receive PC nomination, defeated in general election as independent, Wildrose hold with new candidate
Strathmore-Brooks: Jason Hale won, defected to PCs in 2014, did not seek PC nomination, Wildrose hold with new candidate

Total:
Wildrose hold: 14 (11 with new candidate, 3 with same candidate)
NDP gain: 2
PC gain: 1 (1 with new candidate, 0 with same candidate)

[Krago]

Quick question:  If you're mapping the results by polling division, is it better to use:
(a) only the votes cast at the poll on election day; or
(b) add a portion of the votes cast at the advance/mobile/special polls?

For example, in Calgary-Foothills Polls 61, the votes cast were: NDP 68, PC 67.  But if you include a share of the votes cast outside the polling station, the revised totals would be: PC 89.74, NDP 86.97.  Should Poll 61 appear on the map in orange or blue?

This impacts 178 polling divisions and mostly benefits the Tories (but don't let that sway your opinion!).

[Hatman 🍁]

It's up to the map drawer, but typically one would only map the election day results.

[Krago]

There was only one seat (Calgary-Greenway) where the candidate that won the most votes on e-Day (NDP) lost to a candidate who won the Advance/Mobile/Special polls (PC).

There were another 13 seats where the candidate who place first in the "irregular" polls lost in the "regular" ones:

Calgary-Cross ( PC)
Calgary-East ( PC)
Calgary- Glenmore (PC) *** subject to recount
Calgary-McCall ( WRP)
Calgary-Shaw ( PC)
Calgary-South East ( NDP)
Airdrie ( NDP)
Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock ( NDP)
Grande Prairie-Smoky ( NDP)
Lacombe-Ponoka ( NDP)
Little Bow ( PC)
Livingstone-Macleod ( PC)
Peace River ( PC) *** subject to recount
Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre ( PC)

[Boston Bread]

If a united right is happening, it won't be initiated by Wildrose.
http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/edmonton/Wildrose+Leader+Brian+Jean+says+entertain+idea+merging/11034041/story.html
I still think some PCs will cross nonetheless. But I applaud Jean for this of course.

Even if the Wildrose win next time, I'm not really worried like many progressives were in 2012 about this possibility. Main reason being: if the Wildrose win, they'll have to absorb most of the current PC base at the very least. Doing so requires them to moderate relative to their base's expectations - and what they'll end up as is a standard blue tory government much like the current federal one. I won't approve but it's hardly going to be a Tea Party style wreck. And blue tories winning Alberta isn't exactly unprecedented.

[Hatman 🍁]

A lot of those PC defectors did quite well, even though they all lost.

[Boston Bread]

The oil bosses might have favoured PCs, but the workers there definitely did not.
Shades of


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[DC Al Fine]

So Calgary Foothills will probably go NDP in the ensuing by-election. We had the same problem in NS with a Tory cabinet minister. Instead of waiting a year to cool the air, the Tories get to fight a by-election during the NDP honeymoon

Anyone besides Ric MacIver interested in the PC leadership? I assume no federal Tory wants the job?