Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

Don't laugh, I've seen phone poll numbers quite similar to that!

Only part of my laughter is dedicated to its flawed methodology. The other part is from disbelief.

[Krago]

If it was an EKOS poll, the Greens would be in double digits. 

[Hatman 🍁]

If it was an EKOS poll, the Greens would be in double digits. 

Haha. Careful, now.

[Boston Bread]

Alberta polls continue to amaze.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/pcs-trail-opponents-as-best-managers-of-hot-button-issues-of-taxes-health-care-and-education-poll

From a Mainstreet Poll:

31% Wildrose
30% NDP
24% PC
10% Liberal
5% Alberta

[RogueBeaver]

None of the local experts (Stephen Carter, Janet Brown) I've seen interviewed believe these numbers will hold, though.

[Krago]

None of the local experts (Stephen Carter, Janet Brown) I've seen interviewed believe these numbers will hold, though.

If you want to know if the polls are real, just watch what the Tories do. 

(a) If they ignore the NDP, they don't believe the Orange surge is true. 
(b) If they start carpet-bombing Edmonton with anti-NDP TV ads, then they sort-of believe it is true.
(c) If they start carpet-bombing Calgary with anti-NDP TV ads, then they are fuddle-duddled.

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

[RogueBeaver]

Yep, behaviour is the best predictor.

[Hatman 🍁]

~25% of people are undecided. My guess is most will go PC.

[DC Al Fine]

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

Vote lending doesn't really work when you are in third

[DL]

~25% of people are undecided. My guess is most will go PC.

My guess is that most people who say they are "undecided" are actually people who will not vote at all...if they do vote - seeing the PCs in 3rd place means anyone who just wants to stop Wildrose will vote NDP not PC and anyone just wanting to stop the NDP will vote Wildrose not PC.

[Hatman 🍁]

~25% of people are undecided. My guess is most will go PC.

My guess is that most people who say they are "undecided" are actually people who will not vote at all...if they do vote - seeing the PCs in 3rd place means anyone who just wants to stop Wildrose will vote NDP not PC and anyone just wanting to stop the NDP will vote Wildrose not PC.

Ahh, maybe. The PCs being in third makes things trickier (though depending on who you listen to, they're still a close third). However, there is a sizable portion of the population who doesn't trust the NDP or Wildrose. You know, "moderate heroes". A lot of them are undecided. Maybe many won't vote this time, but many will vote PC.  The Tories won last time because they won a huge percentage of the undecideds. I don't think they'll vote as heavily Tory as they did in 2012, though.

[DC Al Fine]

The Liberals are running less than a half slate and could very easily get ~5% of the vote if they don't add more candidates. Are they even trying to run a full slate?

It will make the election more interesting. They may save a seat or two for the PC's/NDP by not running candidates.

[Boston Bread]

Are they even trying to run a full slate?

No. They are selectively holding back from running candidates in ridings where the NDP has a chance of beating PC/Wildrose. This also held for the Alberta Party, at least until they decided to run a candidate in Calgary-Elbow where their leader is running. The Liberal ranks in rural Alberta are also rather empty right now.

[Hatman 🍁]

Friday is the deadline for nominations by the way. Looks like Wildrose are having trouble running a full slate as well.

[the506]

Wildrose sacks a candidate for remarks on gays from 2007. Here we go again.

http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1341481/wildrose-leader-punts-calgary-candidate-over-remarks-about-gay-activists/

[MaxQue]

Wildrose sacks a candidate for remarks on gays from 2007. Here we go again.

http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1341481/wildrose-leader-punts-calgary-candidate-over-remarks-about-gay-activists/

Well, it's a very different strategy than last time.

[DC Al Fine]

Friday is the deadline for nominations by the way. Looks like Wildrose are having trouble running a full slate as well.

I noticed that Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood only has two candidates (Mason for the NDP & a Tory). When's the last time something like that has happened?

[adma]

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

Liberals might be best hope for borrowing.

[MaxQue]

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

Liberals might be best hope for borrowing.

Borrowing what? Liberals are polling quite low so their support is mostly die-hards and people living in Liberal ridings.

[Njall]

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

Liberals might be best hope for borrowing.

Borrowing what? Liberals are polling quite low so their support is mostly die-hards and people living in Liberal ridings.

The Liberals have been polling at 10-13% these days, and in 2012 they only got 10% while running a full slate of 87 candidates.  If the Liberals only end up running 30 or 40 candidates this time around, it's conceivable that a good number of voters who indicate that they'll vote Liberal will migrate to other parties (primarily the PCs). 

It's noteworthy that in a poll that was conducted last week, both the WRP and NDP were rated as "too extreme for me" by 44% of respondents.

[DL]

Alberta Liberal voters overwhelmingly have NDP as their second choice...so do a surprising number of Wildrose voters

[Phony Moderate]

The NDP winning Alberta would be like Bernie Sanders winning a senate seat in Wyoming or Labour winning the Cotswolds, yes?

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty much.

[the506]

Alberta Liberal voters overwhelmingly have NDP as their second choice...so do a surprising number of Wildrose voters

How many Liberal voters live in rural ridings where the race is PC vs WR though? Any chance of tactical voting swinging a couple ridings?

[lilTommy]

Alberta Liberal voters overwhelmingly have NDP as their second choice...so do a surprising number of Wildrose voters

How many Liberal voters live in rural ridings where the race is PC vs WR though? Any chance of tactical voting swinging a couple ridings?

You need to go back to 1993 to see where the Liberals won solely rural seats (97' they held like rural/suburban seats like Spruce Grove - St.Albert), I believe they held 7 rural districts. One, West Yellowhead is interesting as it went NDP in the late 80's then Liberal in the 90's.