Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Хahar 🤔]

Are they even trying to run a full slate?

No. They are selectively holding back from running candidates in ridings where the NDP has a chance of beating PC/Wildrose. This also held for the Alberta Party, at least until they decided to run a candidate in Calgary-Elbow where their leader is running. The Liberal ranks in rural Alberta are also rather empty right now.

If they don't want to be a real party, why are they running any candidates at all?

[the506]

You need to go back to 1993 to see where the Liberals won solely rural seats (97' they held like rural/suburban seats like Spruce Grove - St.Albert), I believe they held 7 rural districts. One, West Yellowhead is interesting as it went NDP in the late 80's then Liberal in the 90's. 

Yeah, I know about that...but I was thinking about what Liberal voters would do in ridings where they're not running. That 4-5% of the vote may be enough to swing a few seats, even in rural areas.

[Hatman 🍁]

Most Liberals will vote PC in a PC vs. Wildrose race. That much is obvious, isn't it? If they can't stand Prentice, they'll stay home or vote NDP / AP / Green

[Bacon King]

Going by daveberta.ca I looked at all the nominations so far and put this together to see who exactly is running against who:

PC NDP WR LIB AP will all be on the ballot together in 11 constituencies

PC NDP WR AP will be on the ballot without LIB in 23 constituencies
PC NDP WR LIB will be on the ballot without AP in 18 constituencies**
PC NDP LIB AP will be on the ballot without WR in 1 constituency

** = in Edmonton-Centre the Alberta Party is not running a candidate because they have explicitly endorsed the Liberal candidate

PC NDP WR together without LIB AP in 26 constituencies
PC NDP LIB together without WR AP in 4 constituencies
PC NDP AP together without WR LIB in 1 constituency

Just PC NDP without WR LIB AP in 3 constituencies

[Boston Bread]

^ If it stays that way, this will be the end of the Alberta Liberals as a credible party (at least until the next election).

WTH is this?
https://twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/588742017686970369/photo/1

[lilTommy]

Most Liberals will vote PC in a PC vs. Wildrose race. That much is obvious, isn't it? If they can't stand Prentice, they'll stay home or vote NDP / AP / Green

My instinct is PC voters, who are probably the bulk of the undecideds, will also probably just stay home at this rate, the base looks to be 25% that would be the worst I think for the PC vote... the rest is fluid and will likely just not vote. I do think some will go Wildrose to stop the NDP, and others will go NDP to stop Wildrose which was already mentioned.

[Sumner 1868]

What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

[Krago]

^ If it stays that way, this will be the end of the Alberta Liberals as a credible party (at least until the next election).

WTH is this?
https://twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/588742017686970369/photo/1

Maybe Wildrose can start using Warrant's 'Cherry Pie' as their theme song.

[Hatman 🍁]

What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

It means there is a Trudeau leading the federal party.

[Hatman 🍁]

Ok guys, here's my first projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/2015-alberta-election-projection-1.html

[Boston Bread]

How do you plan to distribute the Liberal and AB vote when they inevitably fail to nominate candidates in about half the ridings? If the Liberals are polling at ~12% then around 4% of that will have no Liberal candidate to vote for!

[RogueBeaver]

This all seems too good to be true, but still awesome to watch.

[Hatman 🍁]

How do you plan to distribute the Liberal and AB vote when they inevitably fail to nominate candidates in about half the ridings? If the Liberals are polling at ~12% then around 4% of that will have no Liberal candidate to vote for!

If the Liberals are still polling at 12% after the candidate deadline, and they're only running in half of the ridings, then I would expect a sudden surge in my model in every seat the Liberals are running in. One would *hope* that a respondent wouldn't tell a pollster they're voting Liberal if they do not have a Liberal candidate to vote for.

[RogueBeaver]

Paula Simons on how the dynasty has disarmed themselves on social issues.

[lilTommy]

How do you plan to distribute the Liberal and AB vote when they inevitably fail to nominate candidates in about half the ridings? If the Liberals are polling at ~12% then around 4% of that will have no Liberal candidate to vote for!

If the Liberals are still polling at 12% after the candidate deadline, and they're only running in half of the ridings, then I would expect a sudden surge in my model in every seat the Liberals are running in. One would *hope* that a respondent wouldn't tell a pollster they're voting Liberal if they do not have a Liberal candidate to vote for.

Most people aren't that observant... I suspect the'd only find out at the polling booth if they are a voter but rather disengaged. Or will find out when no liberal signs or mail comes to their door.

I think the Liberal vote will go NDP in Edmonton, it looks to be trending that way (except for Edmonton Centre possibly, where Blakeman on her own popularity will likely be the only Liberal standing... if she's lucky) But Calgary, its a toss up for me; the PCs seem to be toxic but quietly i think Calgary Liberals and AP might be more inclined to vote PC, the vote might swing NDP if the NDP numbers continue to be this strong. I say that as i believe Liberals and AP would much rather see the NDP win then the Wildrose, and it looks like that is what it is coming down to is a battle between the two. Die hard Liberals will, like die hard PCs, stay home if they can't vote for their party... that's what I would do if there was no NDP candidate to vote for and no Green on the ballot either.   

[Hatman 🍁]

I would never stay home, even if it meant voting Liberal. Usually there's a fringe candidate I would back before I would have to take such drastic action. Of course living in Ontario where the ridings are bigger, there's less chance of having to make such a choice, but ironically more fringe candidates to choose from.

[Hatman 🍁]

NDP & PC running full slates, Wildrose not running against Notley and Liberals are running 56 candidates (more or less). Alberta Party running in less than half.

[Zanas]

Can the OP add in the election's date, as is standard procedure round here ? It's May 5th, right ?

[Boston Bread]

I noticed that a majority of NDP candidates are women! Every other party is in the 19% (Wildrose) to 26% (Alberta Party) range. That is an usually big difference.

[Njall]

Can the OP add in the election's date, as is standard procedure round here ? It's May 5th, right ?

Done, sorry about that.  And yes, it is May 5th.

EDIT: I just noticed when scrolling through the Elections Alberta website that the Liberal candidate in Calgary-Hawkwood is a mediocre student who's in my program at school and started talking about running literally two days ago.  *facepalm* I knew that the liberals were desperate, but not that desperate.

[politicallefty]

What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

It means there is a Trudeau leading the federal party.

I'm not trying to conflate the federal and provincial parties, but the polling I've seen has the federal Liberals far out-polling their provincial namesake. From what I've seen, the federal Liberals are polling at roughly 25% in Alberta. Based on current polling in Alberta, the federal Liberals may very well outnumber the provincial Liberals after both new elections have been held, which incidentally hasn't happened since Pierre Trudeau's first election in 1968.

[Hatman 🍁]

What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

It means there is a Trudeau leading the federal party.

I'm not trying to conflate the federal and provincial parties, but the polling I've seen has the federal Liberals far out-polling their provincial namesake. From what I've seen, the federal Liberals are polling at roughly 25% in Alberta. Based on current polling in Alberta, the federal Liberals may very well outnumber the provincial Liberals after both new elections have been held, which incidentally hasn't happened since Pierre Trudeau's first election in 1968.

I was just pointing out that the last time the Liberals were shut out in Alberta in a provincial election, Pierre Trudeau was Prime Minister.

[Boston Bread]

I think 1abvote has really jumped the shark with their latest poll. NDP double digit lead, including leads in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

[MaxQue]

I think 1abvote has really jumped the shark with their latest poll. NDP double digit lead, including leads in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

Most likely, but there is faint odds it's right. Fundraising numbers went out, and NDP raised 400k last trimester, against 125k for Wildrose. That may help them to catch anti-PC vote (and spinnnng the fact Wildrose is not running in all ridings).

Also, Notley has started quoting Peter Lougheed for suppoting her ideas, in the style of Lougheed wanted to raise corporate taxes, I want do to that, Prentice is saying than it's extremist, so he is saying than Lougheed was extremist.

I don't know who is their strategist, but federal NDP should hire him after election.

[Bacon King]

Its worth noting that 1abvote uses Google Surveys, which is a very different methodology than what other pollsters are doing and still something that's mostly untested for political polling. Their numbers have routinely placed NDP (and Alberta Party) higher and Wildrose lower than what the other pollsters are showing in this election. All three polls that have shown NDP in the lead are 1abvote polls