Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[lilTommy]

Its worth noting that 1abvote uses Google Surveys, which is a very different methodology than what other pollsters are doing and still something that's mostly untested for political polling. Their numbers have routinely placed NDP (and Alberta Party) higher and Wildrose lower than what the other pollsters are showing in this election. All three polls that have shown NDP in the lead are 1abvote polls

We've mentioned before that 1ABVote http://1abvote.ca/ leans left, they are very clear about it, so we should take that into consideration. The polling is probably skewed about 3-5%(maybe more but I hope not) towards the NDP and the other moderate-progressive parties. But their polling is in line with others overall i'd say.

[Hatman 🍁]

Never change, 1ABVote

[DL]

New riding polls conform the NDP surge - the NDP has an 11 point lead in Calgary-Fort and a 25 point lead in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/poll-suggests-former-alderman-could-help-ndp-break-22-year-drought-in-calgary

[Hatman 🍁]

Those aren't very good numbers in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview. In a riding the NDP currently holds, you'd expect landslide numbers, not 50%.

[Hatman 🍁]

I suppose the PC candidate being the sitting city councillor for the area is cutting into would-be NDP support there.

Glad they polled Calgary-Fort. I was trying to figure out how to give the NDP a boost there in my model. Now, I don't have to worry about it.

Of course, there are so many more ridings I'd like to see riding polling done.

[Zanas]

Those aren't very good numbers in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview. In a riding the NDP currently holds, you'd expect landslide numbers, not 50%.

Well, I don't know, but to me 50% with a 25 pt lead in FPTP is at least kinda landslide numbers.

[Hatman 🍁]

Those aren't very good numbers in Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview. In a riding the NDP currently holds, you'd expect landslide numbers, not 50%.

Well, I don't know, but to me 50% with a 25 pt lead in FPTP is at least kinda landslide numbers.

Based on city-wide polling, given a proportional swing the NDP should be around 70% there.

Anyways, winning 50% in one particular riding isn't a landslide in Canada, and in very few countries that use FPTP. Winning 50% across a province/country is a landslide though (in Canada, anyways)

[DL]

Given that the NDP won Edmonton-Beverly-Clareview by 1% in 2012 - i will take widening the margin to 25%!!

[Njall]

I think 1abvote has really jumped the shark with their latest poll. NDP double digit lead, including leads in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

Most likely, but there is faint odds it's right. Fundraising numbers went out, and NDP raised 400k last trimester, against 125k for Wildrose. That may help them to catch anti-PC vote (and spinnnng the fact Wildrose is not running in all ridings).

The WRP actually raised $355k last quarter; they were very close behind the NDP.  And the WRP is running candidates in 86 of the 87 ridings in the province; the only riding that they're not contesting is Rachel Notley's Edmonton-Strathcona.

[DC Al Fine]

Never change, 1ABVote

Would like to see a mainstream poll to confirm the trend

[RogueBeaver]

Braid: distinct minority possibility. IMO if Wildrose holds the balance of power - finish off the dynasty.

Will Prentice follow in Turner/Campbell/Martin's footsteps?

PC Edmonton-McClung manager fired after his Islamophobic social media profile is exposed.

[adma]

Based on city-wide polling, given a proportional swing the NDP should be around 70% there.

Then again, in practice, when there's a wave happening, the bigger swings can often be in the hitherto "no-hope" ridings, while the already-helds can see shallower swings...

[toaster]

Rachel Notley appears to be doing something that Andrea Horwath wasn't able to do, to effectively unite the populist NDP support with the left with progressive NDP.

[Boston Bread]

Rachel Notley appears to be doing something that Andrea Horwath wasn't able to do, to effectively unite the populist NDP support with the left with progressive NDP.

I think the ABNDP has much lower expectations, which helps them stay united.

[Hatman 🍁]

Not only that, but get a lot of Red Tory support. (Consider the Liberals are polling the same as in 2012). But by Red Tory I mean pre-2012 Liberal voters that voted Tory in 2012.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

In a way Alberta voters are out of their minds here.  Belt-tightening will have to be done by someone - even if the NDP or the Liberals (somehow) takes power, they will have to find a way to return to surplus.

[adma]

Yeah--re "Red Tory support", remember that Notley has all of her spectrum pretty much to herself, no Wynne-Liberal "left-poaching" factor, etc...

[RogueBeaver]

Tim: Wildrose will do that. The dynasty, like their dead federal cousin, will happily die rather than surrender the P.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Mainstreet Poll:

WRP: 35 (+4)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 25 (+1)
ALP: 4 (-6)
AP: 4 (-1)

Edmonton:
NDP: 64
PC: 16
WRP: 13
ALP: 6
AP: 1

At 64%, the NDP would probably win every Edmonton seat. However, they're stagnant in the rest of the province.

[RogueBeaver]

Question is whether the Tories hold or completely collapse like LPC '11/PC '93.

[lilTommy]

Well the polling for the NDP looks to be real... the PCs are attacking the NDP now

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/prentice-slams-ndp-platform-in-fort-mcmurray

Here is the rest of the Mainstreet breakdown:

Calgary
WR - 35%
PC - 29%
NDP - 25%
ALP - 6%

Rest of Alberta
WR - 42%
PC - 26%
NDP - 24%
ALP - 3%

19% Undecided... here is the kicker for the NDP "The NDP has the strongest support with 81 per cent of supporters saying they won’t change their mind."

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/three-way-battle-for-alberta-as-campaign-reaches-midpoint-poll

My feeling is the WR will mostly sweep Rural Alberta, the NDP picking up random seats (Lethbridge, maybe 1 or 2 in the north if their vote is efficient); The NDP will sweep Edmonton and Calgary will likely be a mix of WR, PC and NDP (that order)... no Liberals left (Sorry Blakeman, she should have jumped to the NDP when she had the chance)

[the506]

With these numbers, I have 44 NDP, 42 Wildrose and 1 PC....Jim Prentice himself.

[Bacon King]

With these numbers, I have 44 NDP, 42 Wildrose and 1 PC....Jim Prentice himself.

LOL

Hoping for this result for sheer comedy value

[lilTommy]

With these numbers, I have 44 NDP, 42 Wildrose and 1 PC....Jim Prentice himself.

LOL

Hoping for this result for sheer comedy value

... That's an NDP majority (slimmest ever but still)

It will be beyond hard to predict seats, outside of Edmonton, the NDPs numbers are so new at this level for many of us it will really come down to local ground game effort. We can "predict" the likely seats like Calgary-Fort and Lethbridge West were strong candidates and pre-polling ground game was already committed, but outside that its a beyond guessing without knowing where the NDP is putting their ground game resources...

[Holmes]

A one seat NDP majority wouldn't last long in Alberta. One vacancy or floor crossing is all it would take, and I don't think the Wildrose or PC party would play nice with an NDP minority.