Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[DC Al Fine]

BURN. Her style's great even if I disagree with her on absence. Jean still fixated on taxes.

Indeed. He's underwhelming. Notley's winning. Swann is getting lost. Prentice & Jean are mediocre.

[DC Al Fine]

Prentice to Notley: "I know that math is difficult"

Not sure how that will go over.

[ilikeverin]

Line of the night from Notley: "That's not a good way to speak to a donor Jim"

I loved that line.

Jean is definitely underperforming.  "Taxes, taxes, taxes" does not a platform make.  Although good on him for acknowledging the existence of man-made global warming.

What a fun debate!

[RogueBeaver]

Poorly.

[RogueBeaver]

So the only question is if there's outside-MOE movement, who drops more on Monday: Prentice or Jean.

[DC Al Fine]

So the only question is if there's outside-MOE movement, who drops more on Monday: Prentice or Jean.

I didn't think Prentice did that bad... Do you?

Yeah, Jean did a poor imitation of Harper's "ignore questions and stick to talking points" strategy. Harper had multiple talking points

[Bacon King]

lol

[Ebsy]

From what I saw, Notley didn't come off as an extremist, which is probably pretty important.

[RogueBeaver]

^ Key point. Other thing to consider: how many people paid attention, considering there was nothing terribly exciting besides mathsplaining.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If the PCs lose then either the NDP or Wildrose win.  That government, if NDP, will likely last one term (possibly two) thanks to how right-wing Alberta is.  That means that likely either the PCs or Wildrose win next.  No governing party in Alberta has ever returned to government.  That means that the PCs are probably (the probability of this increases depending on how much seats they lose) going to go in a slow tailspin until they die.  A Wildrose government?  I don't want that.  Correct my presumptions here if they are wrong, but that's why I'm currently backing Jim Prentice.

[Ebsy]

If the PCs lose then either the NDP or Wildrose win.  That government, if NDP, will likely last one term (possibly two) thanks to how right-wing Alberta is.  That means that likely either the PCs or Wildrose win next.  No governing party in Alberta has ever returned to government.  That means that the PCs are probably (the probability of this increases depending on how much seats they lose) going to go in a slow tailspin until they die.  A Wildrose government?  I don't want that.  Correct my presumptions here if they are wrong, but that's why I'm currently backing Jim Prentice.

W-w-w-hat?

[Zanas]

Line of the night from Notley: "That's not a good way to speak to a donor Jim"

Context ?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

If the PCs lose then either the NDP or Wildrose win.  That government, if NDP, will likely last one term (possibly two) thanks to how right-wing Alberta is.  That means that likely either the PCs or Wildrose win next.  No governing party in Alberta has ever returned to government.  That means that the PCs are probably (the probability of this increases depending on how much seats they lose) going to go in a slow tailspin until they die.  A Wildrose government?  I don't want that.  Correct my presumptions here if they are wrong, but that's why I'm currently backing Jim Prentice.

Truisms about an area's political history are always true until they're not. A polity has always done something until it doesn't and has never done something until it does.

[DC Al Fine]

Line of the night from Notley: "That's not a good way to speak to a donor Jim"

Context ?

When Jim Prentice was running for leader of the PC's & Brian Jean was still in federal politics, he gave $10,000 to Prentice's campaign.

Fast forward to last night. Prentice was attacking Jean quite aggressively, and Notley quipped the line above.

[Hatman 🍁]

Only caught a little bit of the debate, but good to see almost unanimous agreement that Notley won. I can't recall the last time someone was that clearly a winner of a debate.

[Hatman 🍁]

New Forum poll:

NDP: 38 (+10)
WRP: 25 (-5)
PC: 20 (-7)
ALP: 7 (-5)
AP: 6 (+4)
Oth: 5  (+3)

NDP are now in the lead in Calgary too...

[Hatman 🍁]

Also a note, a plurality of 2012 PC voters and a majority of 2012 Liberal voters (warning: small sample size) plan to vote NDP.

[Bacon King]

Also worth noting that the poll was conducted before the debate and therefore doesn't include any post-debate bounce

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

[Zanas]

New Forum poll:

NDP: 38 (+10)
WRP: 25 (-5)
PC: 20 (-7)
ALP: 7 (-5)
AP: 6 (+4)
Oth: 5  (+3)

NDP are now in the lead in Calgary too...

I feel it's only adequate to say : DOMINATING!

To answer the above question, even if I'm not particularly well versed in Canadian politics, I feel like this election is bound to have a pretty negligible effect on federal politics and the federal election, whatever its result. Canadian posters can correct if I'm mistaken in this feeling.

[Marokai Backbeat]

I still just can't help but feel this is too good to be true. Canada's unpredictable nature has made me something of a pessimist.

[RogueBeaver]

It's Forum. Will wait for other polls next week.

[You kip if you want to...]

So, if this happens, is this like the Democrats winning Texas or Labour sweeping the South East of England?

[RogueBeaver]

Yep.

[Хahar 🤔]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

In general, the NDP holding government at the provincial level tends to hurt the party in that province at the federal level. In 2011, the two provinces where the NDP did not improve on their 2008 vote share were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the two provinces with NDP governments. That said, the federal election may be too close to this election for people to vote against the federal NDP.