Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[cp]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

Really hard to say. An NDP win might supply the federal NDP with campaign infrastructure that would be invaluable come October, but it also might free up a lot of erstwhile PC candidates and staffers who would migrate to the federal Tories.

The Liberals (federal and provincial) have been moribund in the province for so long that the outcome likely won't affect them one way or another. The only question with them is: how strong of a pull (or a drag) will Trudeau be on their fortunes generally?

I doubt a PC loss would translate into any major shift in support for the federal Tories. The federal Tories are pretty deeply entrenched in Alberta and their opponents (unlike on the provincial level) lack deep roots in the province. In the federal context, the Tories are still kind of like the home team so people are unlikely to abandon them for parties that are more centred on eastern Canada, specifically Quebec.

One consequence of an NDP victory, however, might be a serious moment of reflection/reckoning for conservative ideologues. With the NDP ruling the province that's been the taproot of Canadian conservatism there might be some serious questions as to what the future of that movement can plausibly be.

[Hatman 🍁]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

In general, the NDP holding government at the provincial level tends to hurt the party in that province at the federal level. In 2011, the two provinces where the NDP did not improve on their 2008 vote share were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the two provinces with NDP governments. That said, the federal election may be too close to this election for people to vote against the federal NDP.

Yeah. Most likely the NDP would be enjoying a honeymoon period next Fall. Would be a huge boost for the party, but I think Albertans are a lot more afraid of the federal NDP. That being said, it would put a lot of Edmonton ridings into play at least.

[lilTommy]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

In general, the NDP holding government at the provincial level tends to hurt the party in that province at the federal level. In 2011, the two provinces where the NDP did not improve on their 2008 vote share were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the two provinces with NDP governments. That said, the federal election may be too close to this election for people to vote against the federal NDP.

I think that is a good point; the Federal election is later this year, so no more the 6-8 months away. the NDP IF elected wouldn't even really "start" governing in terms of passing a budget till the fall... they would have enough time to keep some of their promises before life happens, so they would still be in their honeymoon stage.
I think 93, is also a good example where the NDP governments (Ontario and BC) they had been around for a few years and that helped safe NDP seats swing Liberal or Reform (specifically thinking Vancouver East)... lost of other things at play then but still

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary will decide who wins this election. The NDP needs to win the Nenshi coalition to form a majority. They already have Edmonton, and rural Alberta is not going to vote NDP, so this race is going to all come down to Calgary.

[lilTommy]

Calgary will decide who wins this election. The NDP needs to win the Nenshi coalition to form a majority. They already have Edmonton, and rural Alberta is not going to vote NDP, so this race is going to all come down to Calgary.

Agreed, the NDP is at 40% almost, it would be nice to see the breakdown of where the NDP is at in rural Alberta, that could mean the difference between a handful of rural seats (including Lethbridge East and West or even Red Deer North and South) and pulling up the middle between the WR and PCs and winning more then a dozen with low 30%s

[Hatman 🍁]

Forum has regional breakdowns for rural Alberta, but the sample size is too small in my opinion.

Nonetheless, they're at 30% in Southern Alberta, which would definitely get them both Lethbridge seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, what's interesting about the Forum survey is the income breakdowns; the NDP's best demo is the super wealthy ($100K+). Does. Not. Compute. They're also the least likely to vote Tory. There goes my theory than Prentice was Alberta's John Tory/Mitt Romney.

The NDP is also winning every age bracket, and are even leading (by one point) among men. I'd imagine after the debate last night, Notley will get a bump from women (due in part to Prentice's condescending math comment).

[they don't love you like i love you]

So I looked it up, the last time the Progressive Conservatives did not control Alberta was 1971. Whoa. This has potential to be quite historic. Not to mention also this would be equivalent to say electing a Democratic Governor of Idaho.

[Boston Bread]

Mainstreet will also release a poll today. They said their numbers will be different. But I do expect an NDP debate bounce.
I see that even Forum's seat projection (which is known for underestimating the NDP) has the NDP getting a majority with those numbers. And the PCs are cut down to 6 seats.

[Hatman 🍁]

Mainstreet:

WRP: 32 (-3)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 26 (+1)
ALP: 8 (+4) [reverting to the mean?]
AP: 4 (n/c)

NDP at 55% in Edmonton (31 point lead), but third place in Calgary and 2nd in ROAB.

[Boston Bread]

The NDP has yet to trend downwards in any poll in  this campaign, which is very impressive.

[lilTommy]

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2004%2022)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

the breakdowns or age, income, regions
It is very odd to see the NDP polling highest among the wealthiest yet the PCs polling highest in the low income bracket. EVEN with the NDP running on a platform that talks about raising the income taxes on the wealthy. We easterners have a hard time with that, but hey Alberta, when something makes sense, it makes sense.

The NDP has been now polling consistently in the 30%s this is a very stable trend. Mainstreet and Forum have the NDP about the same in Edmonton (55 and 56)
Do we know if the two poll differently? different groups or sizes or what not?

I'm waiting for the Ab1 poll which have the NDP at 50% province wide

[DL]

Mainstreet:

WRP: 32 (-3)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 26 (+1)
ALP: 8 (+4) [reverting to the mean?]
AP: 4 (n/c)

NDP at 55% in Edmonton (31 point lead), but third place in Calgary and 2nd in ROAB.

I think a lot of polls are overestimating Liberal and Alberta Party support and that they will each get about HALF what this polls says (particularly what with having no candidate in so many ridings).

The PCs would get crushed seatwise with this kind of spread - the NDP would crush every single solitary PC in the Edmonton area and the PC would likely be left with nothing in ROAB - there are 25 seats in Calgary and with these numbers the PCs would be lucky to win half (12) of them.

[Хahar 🤔]

In a scenario where the Liberals are polling 8%, it seems likelier that the Liberal share of the vote will actually be 4% than it is that Liberal candidates will poll 16% in the ridings that they contest.

[Njall]

Mainstreet:

WRP: 32 (-3)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 26 (+1)
ALP: 8 (+4) [reverting to the mean?]
AP: 4 (n/c)

NDP at 55% in Edmonton (31 point lead), but third place in Calgary and 2nd in ROAB.

For what it's worth, here is the province-wide breakdown including undecided voters:

WRP: 25% (-4)
NDP: 24% (-2)
PC: 20% (n/c)
ALP: 6% (+3)
ABP: 4% (n/c)
Undecided: 21% (+2)

[lilTommy]

Mainstreet:

WRP: 32 (-3)
NDP: 31 (+1)
PC: 26 (+1)
ALP: 8 (+4) [reverting to the mean?]
AP: 4 (n/c)

NDP at 55% in Edmonton (31 point lead), but third place in Calgary and 2nd in ROAB.

For what it's worth, here is the province-wide breakdown including undecided voters:

WRP: 25% (-4)
NDP: 24% (-2)
PC: 20% (n/c)
ALP: 6% (+3)
ABP: 4% (n/c)
Undecided: 21% (+2)

http://www.mainstreettechnologies.ca/wildrose-leads-but-ndp-gains

[RogueBeaver]

Pantheon: NDP 37, WRP 32, PC 21.

[Boston Bread]

Pantheon: NDP 37, WRP 32, PC 21.

Despite the PCs being 3rd, half of voters predict a PC victory.

[Marokai Backbeat]

Pantheon: NDP 37, WRP 32, PC 21.

Despite the PCs being 3rd, half of voters predict a PC victory.

After 40+ years of power and their close-call victories, can you blame them?

[Boston Bread]

Abingdon research did 6 riding polls, all in PC ridings, PC behind in all 6.

Calgary-Elbow: AB+5 over PC
Calgary-Klein: WRP+5 over NDP
Edmonton-Gold Bar: NDP+50 over PC
Stony Plain: WRP+4 over NDP
Chestmere-Rocky View: WRP+23 over PC
Calgary-Acadia: WRP+18 over PC

This is actually (relatively) bad news for the NDP. They should be winning Klein and Stony Plain if they aim to form govt. Take in with salt as usual.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-6-ridings-where-the-pcs-are-faltering-in-the-polls-1.3047764

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP should be winning Calgary-Klein, yes, but Stony Plain is too exurban/rural to go NDP.

[DC Al Fine]

Pantheon: NDP 37, WRP 32, PC 21.

Who are they? I've never heard of that firm before.

[DC Al Fine]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

The NDP would almost certainly make gains at the expense of Trudeau.

[adma]

In general, the NDP holding government at the provincial level tends to hurt the party in that province at the federal level. In 2011, the two provinces where the NDP did not improve on their 2008 vote share were Manitoba and Nova Scotia, the two provinces with NDP governments.

It depends on how "healthy" said governments are, though--by comparison, the relative stability of the Romanow regime allowed the ill-fated Audrey McLaughlin feds to weather the 1993 storm better in Saskatchewan than elsewhere.

[adma]

This is actually (relatively) bad news for the NDP. They should be winning Klein and Stony Plain if they aim to form govt. Take in with salt as usual.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-6-ridings-where-the-pcs-are-faltering-in-the-polls-1.3047764

But, pre-debate.  And keep in mind another potential byproduct of the debate: Brian Jean's weak performance leading to second thoughts about Wildrose...