Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Holmes]

I'm most excited to see some whacky results in ridings that no one expects. These will happen considering we have no idea how the NDP will really perform outside of Edmonton, especially in rural Alberta.

[Hatman 🍁]

Predictably, the red-baiting is in full swing now.

[Lotuslander]

I think that the AB NDP has unfortunately just blown the election without realizing same. By stepping on a landmine and, with a slow fuse, it eventually blowing up.

Today in the Calgary Herald:

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This matter has already started to light up on Twitter.

Alberta is an oil-based economy - land-locked and unable access other markets aside from the U.S. Ergo, public opinion polls in Alberta have always shown huge support for the Northern Gateway Pipeline to the west coast. Irrespective of what BCers thought.

Reminds me of Adrian Dix of the BC NDP, during the 2013 BC election while well ahead in polling, coming out against the other proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning to the west coast. Was known as the "Kinder Morgan Surprise". Completely turned the election against the BC NDP after that. Became a lightning rod and symbol against the BC NDP.

The BC NDP became characterized as "Dr. No" - against resource development, anti-economy, anti-jobs. Even unionized workers from the BC Building Trades flooded their own offices with calls in disbelief. That narrative lost the BC NDP major support in interior BC as well as Metro Vancouver.

I have a strong inkling that Notley has just stepped into her own "Kinder Morgan Surprise" in Alberta with 10 days to go until e-day. No doubt that the other opposition parties as well as the media will focus on same as the week begins on Monday. Unfortunately.

[Bacon King]

Her actual words were much more nuanced:

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link: http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/notley-works-to-build-calgary-support-but-pipeline-and-royalty-issues-loom

[Lotuslander]

During an election campaign on a potential hot-button issue, "nuanced" won't work when your opposition is consistently bombarding you and the media follows suit.

Adrian Dix also had a "nuanced" position. He never stated that he was against the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning. Dix stated that "he did not want to turn Vancouver into an oil tanker port" with increased oil tanker traffic.

Only the subsequent media barrage, in days following, did Dix finally admit that he was concurrently opposed to the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning.

BC Media: "Mr. Dix do you or don't you support the Kinder Morgan twinning. Yes or No? Simple Question".

Again, during the heat of a campaign "nuance" doesn't work on such an issue. In politics, that which you don’t support you’re taken to oppose.

[Hatman 🍁]

In BC, the NDP has had historic support from resource workers. That's not the case in Alberta. Notley's support in coming from urban progressives who are more likely to agree with her stance on Northern Gateway.

[DC Al Fine]

This is a good example of why an NDP breakthrough outside Edmonton would be so difficult federally. Notley has the luxury of campaigning only in Alberta, while Mulcair has to keep eastern/Francophone lefties onside too, and will probably say something much worse about pipelines/oil than wqhat Notley said.

[Lotuslander]

In BC, the NDP has had historic support from resource workers. That's not the case in Alberta. Notley's support in coming from urban progressives who are more likely to agree with her stance on Northern Gateway.

Completely have that wrong.

All throughout interior BC resource workers have voted heavily for both the BC Libs and fed Cons over the past decade+ or so. From forestry/pulp mill operations in Prince George. To mines in the Cariboo. To the vast metallurgical coal mining area in the Elkford Valley in SE BC. Just look at your poli riding maps.

BTW, opinion polls have consistently shown that at least 60% - 70% in Alberta support the NGP. Of course those opposed are mostly situate within urban inner core areas. Basically same poli dynamic here in BC, in inner urban areas, who also "strongly" oppose NGP and are also strong BC NDP areas. Nothing new there.

And if the PCs or WR turn Notley's stance into a broader issue of the NDP opposing the resource sector, the economy, and jobs akin to what happened in BC... then the AB NDP are hooped as we approach e-day. Seen this exact movie play out here in BC during the 2013 BC election campaign.  

PS. The other parties turn the election narrative into "It's about the economy, stupid".

[Hatman 🍁]

So if 60-70% support it, that leaves 30-40% who do not. What is the NDP polling at again?

Don't get me wrong, this plus all the red baiting, will scare off some voters, but and prevent the NDP from actually winning (did anyone think that was actually going to happen?), but I find it hard to believe that most would-be NDP voters would be surprised by her position.

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So how was Dix hurt by his views then? Obviously if what you claim is true, there were still enough resource people that were going to vote NDP but did not.

[Lotuslander]

So if 60-70% support it, that leaves 30-40% who do not. What is the NDP polling at again?

Not that simple. Many simply "Don't Know or Don't Care". Others are "soft" no. Only the "strongly no" matter and they are in the single digits.

That is not the problem here. The problem here is that Notley has just turned the AB election narrative upside-down providing "red political meat" to the other parties. Again, that anti-NGP position will morph into an anti-economy, anti-jobs, anti-oil industry narrative by the other poli parties as we move into e-day.

Already happening BTW. And forget about the AB opinion polls. All of the 2012 pollsters have stepped away. We now have mostly unknowns on the AB landscape with IVR polls.

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I suspect that the AB NDP base is between 10% - 15% of the electorate based upon previous elections. Anything above that are former Liberal, PC, and WR voters who want to get rid of the PCs and are enamoured with Notley. "SOFT" NDP voters. Esp. when the AB Libs and WR are weak after their leaders left. But the entire AB election dynamic appears to have now been changed moving forward.

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Perhaps I should make the BC 2013 election narrative more clear. When Dix announced his "Kinder Morgan Surprise" it completely changed the poli narrative in BC as follows:

1. 1,000's of high-paying unionized jobs thrown under bus right there; BC Unionized Building Trades angry;

2. Some BC NDP candidates then opposed natural gas fracking in the media; NG fracking is how most BC natural gas is produced; Canada's 2nd largest natural gas producer and has brought in annual revenues to BC treasury as high as $1.9 billion;

3. With that perceived opposition, proposed LNG facilities in jeopardy; Major economic boost to BC if they proceed;

4. Some BC NDP candidates were opposed to specific mines in BC (Prosperity, Ajax, Raven), which had major local support;

The electorate became suspicious about BC NDP intentions on all of these proposed projects, the broader economy at large, jobs, gov't finances. You name it. Remember that the office towers in Vancouver contains the world's largest concentration of mining engineers/consultants. Again, the poli narrative turned into "It's about the economy, stupid".

Affects the entire poli "food-chain". Same thing with the AB oil sands.

PS. The BC NDP has sent an army into this AB election campaign. Including former BC NDP provincial secretary Gerry Scott. But seems all a moot point now.

PPS. Just a couple of examples, of too many, from Twitter today:

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[MaxQue]

Considering your desilluonnal nonsense about Greens and the Vancouver-Mount Pleasant by-election, I don't see why we should consider you as something than an anti-NDP hacks willig to distort facts.

[Lotuslander]

Considering your desilluonnal nonsense about Greens and the Vancouver-Mount Pleasant by-election, I don't see why we should consider you as something than an anti-NDP hacks willig to distort facts.

Sorry. But that has to be the dumbest objective poli analysis that I have ever read on this entire site. Seriously. Obviously and absolutely no understanding of either BC or AB politics.

Just too stupid for me. And you obviously come across as some obscure hardcore NDP hack from Quebec? Figures!

[Ebsy]

I think it's been firmly established that everyone on this forum is a hack of the finest variety.

[cp]

Agreed. Perhaps the sudden appearance of the invective in this thread, however, is a sign that things in Alberta have got anti-NDP folk running scared?

Whatever the motivation, the pipeline issue seems more like a feinting maneuver than anything else. The major issue of the campaign has been the PC-proposed budget. It seems unlikely that a single statement is going to change that 10 days out.

[RogueBeaver]

I think almost (except PC supporters) all of us can agree that the dynasty's end is paramount.

[cp]

Yeah, I wanted to say that a major issue in the campaign was 'anti-incumbency' or 'corruption' or 'a throw the bums out mentality' but I didn't want to be too hacky, or at least project my own prejudices onto the general public. Guess I over-corrected!

Having now said that, I've noticed a trend in the comments for almost all the articles on the AB election: denouncements of the NDP as terrible/disastrous/satanic are *immediately* followed - in the same comment - by something along the lines of 'but the PCs have still got to go'. Interesting times.

[adma]

And nobody's shilling on behalf of Wildrose, either.  (After Brian Jean's debate performance, why *would* they?)

At this point, the pipeline issue's too "inside baseball", anyway.  Though I still wouldn't discount a "sobering up" upward bump in the PC vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

It would be so weird that the NDP would get all of this support without voters realizing what kind of party they are, right? They're not a conservative party, of course they're going to take the left wing position on things. Just because they're in Alberta doesn't mean they're not going to take a principled stand on something.

Perhaps Alberta is not ready for an NDP government anyways. Maybe some time with a strong Opposition will help Alberta warm up to the party.  An Ontario 1990 style surprise electoral outcome would kill the NDP in Alberta for generations.

[Krago]

Perhaps Alberta is not ready for an NDP government anyways. Maybe some time with a strong Opposition will help Alberta warm up to the party.  An Ontario 1990 style surprise electoral outcome would kill the NDP in Alberta for generations.

Do you think the Nova Scotia NDP benefitted from their near-miss in 1998?  Do you think waiting until 2009 helped them out?

[DL]

I'm curious Lotuslander. Why do you seem to have such an intense hatred of the NDP? It verges on "NDP derangement syndrome" - every single posting you have is filled with a mixture of rabid anti-NDP attacks mixed with some thinly veiled "concern trolling". What's the story? was your mother an NDP voter and she didn't love you? Did you get dumped by an ex-boyfriend or girlfriend for an NDP organizer?

[Lotuslander]

I'm curious Lotuslander. Why do you seem to have such an intense hatred of the NDP? It verges on "NDP derangement syndrome" - every single posting you have is filled with a mixture of rabid anti-NDP attacks mixed with some thinly veiled "concern trolling". What's the story? was your mother an NDP voter and she didn't love you? Did you get dumped by an ex-boyfriend or girlfriend for an NDP organizer?

I just don't get some of you guys. Are all folk posting here just NDP supporters? Because if that is the case, then your judgment is impaired and blinding your political analysis. Firstly, 6 parties are running in Alberta - NDP, PCs, Liberal, Alberta Party, WR, and Greens.

Secondly, Alberta is an oil-based economy. Period. From the service sector in Edmonton to the office towers in Calgary. For any political party to come out against an oil pipeline (in Alberta of all places) is basically shooting themselves in the political foot.

Even the Saskatchewan NDP supports the proposed Keystone pipeline to the U.S. for same reasons.

Remember what happened when Adrian Dix came out with his "Kinder Morgan Surprise" during the 2013 BC election? Right thereafter one could see the political fallout/impact.

Don't need to listen to my analysis. Just go to Twitter. A common theme of many AB NDP supporters therein is that the AB NDP "has shot themselves in the foot".

Just watch the political fallout over the next 9 days. And, at the end of the day, from an analytical perspective, don't let me say I told you so. Open your eyes to realpolitik man.

[Boston Bread]

The Northern Gateway might not even be built under a Wildrose govt. There are large problems with native land claims looming, more so than the other pipelines mentioned. Notley still supports the more realistic pipeline projects. The PC budget is still the largest issue of the election. There is no reason for pipelines to suddenly become the biggest issue.

And if the NDP won't stand for the environment, who will? The greens?

[cp]

Indeed. If anything, abandoning green policies as soon as they had a whiff of power would probably harm the NDP more (by making their core supporters, the ones they need motivated in the home stretch, start to doubt themselves).

Having spoken to my (admittedly few) Albertan contacts the impression is that the NDP rise is real but not expected to take them to government. Either they'll come up short to Wildrose or there will be a last minute swing to the PC's a la 2012. That said, this doesn't seem to come from a belief that the NDP is *incapable* of winning enough votes, just that people are weary of underestimating the PCs.

[Zanas]

Don't need to listen to my analysis. Just go to Twitter. A common theme of many AB NDP supporters therein is that the AB NDP "has shot themselves in the foot".

Just watch the political fallout over the next 9 days. And, at the end of the day, from an analytical perspective, don't let me say I told you so. Open your eyes to realpolitik man.

Sorry bloke, but if you think that whatever goes on on Twitter will have any meaningful effect whatsoever on the real outcome of the real election, you're gonna have a bad time.

[136or142]

Being from B.C, I can tell you that the majority of us will only allow the Northern Gateway Pipeline to go ahead over our dead bodies, especially after the Federal Government's "world class" response to the small spill that occurred here just a few days ago.  And I say that as a supporter of both "Energy East" and the Kinder Morgan expansion.

My proposed NDP cabinet based on them winning all 87 ridings.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Rachel Notley, Nurses Union Labour Relations Officer/Former Labour Lawyer, B.A-Political Science, MLA 2008-, Edmonton-Strathcona

2.Finance, Brian Mason, Bus Driver, Edmonton City Councillor 1989-2000, MLA 2000-, Party Leader 2004-2014, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

3.Economic Development and Trade, Joe Ceci, NPO Public Policy Program Manager, Former Community Worker, Calgary City Councillor 1995-2010, Calgary-Fort

4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture/North, Marg McCuaig-Boyd, Small Business Consultant, Former Grand Prairie Regional College Campus Vice President, Former Teacher, B.A-Education, M.A-Administration and Leadership, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley

5.Labour and Immigration/Women, Kathleen Ganley, Labour and Employment Lawyer, B.A-Psychology, B.A-Philosophy (Hons), Calgary-Buffalo

6.Natural Resources, Eric Rosendahl, Retired Pulp Mill Worker and President Yellowhead Labour Council, President Hinton Fish and Game Association, West Yellowhead

7.Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Glenn Norman, Cattle Rancher and National Farmers Union Activist, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills

8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Anam Kazim, Applications Engineer, B.Sc-Chemical Engineering, M.Sc-BioChemical and Environmental Engineering, Calgary-Glenmore

9.Environment, Marlin Schmidt, Provincial Environment Ministry Scientist, Former Environmental Consultant, Professional Accordian Player, M.Sc-Hydrogeology, Edmonton-Gold Bar

10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Maria Fitzpatrick, Retired Correctional Services of Canada Project Officer, Lethbridge and District National Association of Federal Retirees Treasurer, Former National Capital Region PSAC Regional Executive Vice President, B.A-Education and Physical Education, Lethbridge East

11.Government Services and Public Works, David Eggen,  Executive Director Alberta Friends of Medicare, Former High School English Teacher and Union Activist, MLA 2004-2008, 2012-, Edmonton Calder

12.Human Resources and Housing, Marie Renaud, LoSeCa Foundation Executive Director, St. Albert

13.Children and Family Development, William Pelach, University of Calgary Associate Dean-Academic, Former Social Work Professor, Calgary Counselling Centre Scholar in Residence, President Calgary First Spiritualist Church, MSW, Chestermere-Rocky View

14.Education, Sarah Hoffman, Former Alberta NDP Caucus Research Director, Edmonton Public School Trustee 2010- and Board Chair 2012-, M.A-Educational Policy Studies, Edmonton-Glenora

15.Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Doug Hart, Grand Prairie Regional College Vice President-Academic/Former Acting President, Former Canadian Community College Faculty Association Executive, Former Registered Nurse, B.Sc-Nursing, PhD-Education Administration, PhD-Health Promotion Studies, Lacombe-Panoka

16.Health/Seniors, Bob Turner, Physician and Retired Medical and Oncology Professor, Former Hospital Director of Clinical Hematology, Former Canadian Red Cross Transfusion Service Medical Director, Edmonton-Whitemud

17.Municipal Affairs, Bob Wanner, Professional Mediator, Retired Medicine Hat Commissioner of Public Services, MBA, Medicine Hat

18.Aboriginal Relations, Colin Piquette, Educational Policy Studies Instructor, President Boyle and District Chamber of Commerce, Boyle District Agriculture Society Director, B.A-Political Science, M.A-Adult Education, Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater

19.Attorney General/Solicitor General, Stephanie McLean, Family Law and Criminal Defence Lawyer and Firm Partner, Alberta Criminal Defence Lawyers Association Executive, Calgary-Varsity

Speaker, Deron Bilous, MLA 2012-

Also, for any one keeping score, the NDP slate is comprised of 41 men and 46 women.