Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Here are all the riding polls that I am aware of so far:

[RogueBeaver]

Disqualified PC candidate had a restraining order from '07, says he told them in 2012 and that obviously didn't prevent his green light. Prentice didn't deny either.

[ag]

Here are all the riding polls that I am aware of so far:

The dangerous thing for PC, it is third in many ridings (and in the ones it is second, it is frequently very distant second). If the Duvergerian logic reestablishes itself, it might be in for a very nasty underperformance.

[Krago]

More Alberta poll craziness: http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-closing-gap-with-pcs/

[Krago]

Plunking those numbers into my spreadsheet gives: NDP 80, WR 4, Lib 3

[lilTommy]

More Alberta poll craziness: http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-closing-gap-with-pcs/

Hey, I was close, I said abvote would have the NDP at 50%...

Now both the WR and PCs are campaigning against the NDP, only days ago WR said it would work with the NDP on certain issues... the "right" in Alberta is scared stiff!

[Krago]

My completely-off-the-top-of-my-head guess at where the parties currently stand is this:

NDP 35%, WR 30%, PC 25%, Lib 5%, Oth 5%

When I put the numbers into my magical seat projection spreadsheet, I come up with this:

NDP 42, WR 41, PC 4

How many minutes would it take for Brian Jean to reassess his opinion of floor-crossers?

[Holmes]

More Alberta poll craziness: http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-closing-gap-with-pcs/

lol....

[Boston Bread]

Plunking those numbers into my spreadsheet gives: NDP 80, WR 4, Lib 3

I have no words....

[cp]

My completely-off-the-top-of-my-head guess at where the parties currently stand is this:

NDP 35%, WR 30%, PC 25%, Lib 5%, Oth 5%

When I put the numbers into my magical seat projection spreadsheet, I come up with this:

NDP 42, WR 41, PC 4

How many minutes would it take for Brian Jean to reassess his opinion of floor-crossers?

Depends on whether Notley gets to two of the rump PCs first

[Hash]

Has Alberta banned all good pollsters from operating? Why is it that, with the possible exception of Forum (which really isn't as bad as it's made out to be), all the polls here have been done by garbage nobody pollsters?

[RogueBeaver]

Graves said on Twitter that he'll be polling but he's more interested in federal implications.

[RogueBeaver]

Janet Brown compares it to Ontario 1990. Back then, she worked for Peterson.

Colby Cosh thinks Notleymania is mostly Edmontonian and the NDP has a 20-something seat ceiling.

[ag]

Nuts.

[Ebsy]

Add this one to the pile of reasons not to call early elections.

[Hatman 🍁]

Graves said on Twitter that he'll be polling but he's more interested in federal implications.

I'm doing my best to ensure we release regional numbers!

[Hatman 🍁]

Janet Brown compares it to Ontario 1990. Back then, she worked for Peterson.

Colby Cosh thinks Notleymania is mostly Edmontonian and the NDP has a 20-something seat ceiling.

That's a little bearish, no? Such a belief would've made sense at the beginning of the campaign, but not now. Remember it was just a year and a half ago that Nenshi won every ward in Calgary in his re-election campaign. If Notley can tap in his support base, the sky is the limit for NDP seats in that city. I agree that outside CGY and EDM, the NDP only has a shot at Lethbridge and some other smaller cities (and maybe a couple of rural ridings like West Yellowhead).

[King of Kensington]

Graves says he's releasing a poll shortly; it looks "very good" for the NDP and "very bleak" for PCs and WR.

[Boston Bread]

Graves on twitter:

 

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[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my second projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/alberta-2015-election-projection-2.html

[Ebsy]

Here's my second projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/alberta-2015-election-projection-2.html

Are you going to submit a reasonable projection if the polls continue to show the NDP with a large lead?

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's my second projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/04/alberta-2015-election-projection-2.html

Are you going to submit a reasonable projection if the polls continue to show the NDP with a large lead?

You mean with the NDP ahead in seats?  I'll have to look in my crystal ball and see how undecideds will break.

[Bacon King]

BK FAMILY TRACKER: INTERNATIONAL EDITION

I have a cousin in Calgary-Fort who reports "the orange party has more signs and stuff than everyone else combined" and he was visited at home by canvassing NDP candidate Joe Ceci. No contact from any other candidates. He's since seen Ceci twice more at community events.

[Hatman 🍁]

Cute. At this point there is no doubt Ceci will win, anyways. Out of all Calgary seats, it's the most likely to go NDP.

[Lief 🗽]

Apparently we're getting that Ekos poll tomorrow, they said on Twitter they want another night of interviews to make sure the NDPocalypsw is actually happening.