Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

It's funny how you guys know more than I do, and I work for EKOS

[Lief 🗽]

Nah I just spent like half of class reading that Graves guy's Twitter.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't see anything about tomorrow, but we'll see. We've been releasing polls on Fridays lately.

[136or142]

Jim Prentice:
"After meeting with and talking to my fellow Albertans, I've become convinced that I made a mistake in not following the fixed election period law.  In accordance, I am cancelling this election."

[Sumner 1868]

Jim Prentice:
"After meeting with and talking to my fellow Albertans, I've become convinced that I made a mistake in not following the fixed election period law.  In accordance, I am cancelling this election."

[136or142]

Jim Prentice:
"After meeting with and talking to my fellow Albertans, I've become convinced that I made a mistake in not following the fixed election period law.  In accordance, I am cancelling this election."

It's a joke!

Colby Cosh:
"The Conservatives are treating Notley as the main adversary, ramping up attacks on past NDP governments outside Alberta and torpedoing the NDP’s fiscal plan. (How many Albertans are refugees from NDP Saskatchewan or descendants thereof?"

Yes, because the NDP ran Saskatchewan so badly they left with a $5 billion deficit.

Oh sorry, that's the Alberta P.Cs.

[Sumner 1868]

Jim Prentice:
"After meeting with and talking to my fellow Albertans, I've become convinced that I made a mistake in not following the fixed election period law.  In accordance, I am cancelling this election."

It's a joke!

Ah, OK. I suspected it was a joke when you left no link, but stranger has happened.

Colby Cosh:
"The Conservatives are treating Notley as the main adversary, ramping up attacks on past NDP governments outside Alberta and torpedoing the NDP’s fiscal plan. (How many Albertans are refugees from NDP Saskatchewan or descendants thereof?"

Yes, because the NDP ran Saskatchewan so badly they left with a $5 billion deficit.

Oh sorry, that's the Alberta P.Cs.

If I understand correctly, many rural Saskatchewan residents detest the NDP for closing public hospitals and other services in the 1990s.

[136or142]

Meanwhile, the Saskatchewan countryside has changed.

There are fewer farmers, larger farms, weaker towns, less of a rural community culture and more of an entrepreneurial attitude among farmers, says veteran University of Regina political scientist Howard Leeson.

“There really has been a conservatization of the rural attitude in Saskatchewan,” he said.

“The disappearance of the smaller farms and the co-operatives and community activities those farmers supported have made a huge difference. That was the NDP base and now there is much more a business approach.”

As a farm activist and former longtime president of the National Farmers Union, Swift Current-area farmer Stewart Wells has watched the transformation of rural Saskatchewan with dismay.

“Farmers seem to have bought into the notion that what is good for companies in the food system is good for farmers, the trickle down theory,” he said.

“That certainly wasn’t the view of the farmers who built the co-ops, built the pool, built the CCF.”

Wells, a one-time Saskatchewan Wheat Pool delegate, sees the 1990s demise of the pool as a co-operative as a pivotal moment in the change in rural Saskatchewan attitudes.

The pool maintained a strong rural base, an extensive committee system that flagged emerging issues and a strong communications machine that stressed the value of co-operation and support for the Canadian Wheat Board.

Wells has an old pool notebook with the slogan: “every bushel of wheat delivered through the pool is a vote for the Canadian Wheat Board.”

Now, while Saskatchewan farmers vote for pro-single desk CWB directors, they also vote for Conservatives vowing to abolish the single desk.

“It really isn’t a ballot question for farmers anymore,” said Leeson.

“They market many of their own crops and have a business outlook, even if they support the board in director elections.”

[Lief 🗽]

I don't see anything about tomorrow, but we'll see. We've been releasing polls on Fridays lately.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/593513777980575744

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Other interesting tidbits:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Hatman 🍁]

I don't think one more night is going to change anything.

[DC Al Fine]

LPC+NDP+Green got 50% combined in the last EKOS federal poll, so I imagine the NDP are polling in the low to mid forties given what Lief posted.

That seems like a bit much, but then the NDP at 25% in Alberta seemed a bit much two months ago.

[DC Al Fine]

Also, if the NDP win a majority, the only positive right wingers can take away is that it will probably screw the Liberals out of a Calgary seat or two in October.

[King of Kensington]

Voice of Franky reports:

NDP  39.6%
PC  23%
WR  23%
ALP  6.7%
ABP  4.6%

Poll to be released tomorrow.

[Hatman 🍁]

Interesting. I don't think that includes tonight, though (except, I don't recall WRP and PC being tied last I checked, but maybe weighting did it).  Obviously Frank is very excited and can't wait to let all of Twitter know about it. 

[Lief 🗽]

Who the hell are all these Federal Green/Provincial Wildrose voters?!

[Ebsy]

My untrained eyes suggest to me that those are pretty good numbers for the NDP, especially among federal Liberals.

[Hatman 🍁]

My untrained eyes suggest to me that those are pretty good numbers for the NDP, especially among federal Liberals.

Geez, you think?

[Boston Bread]

Who the hell are all these Federal Green/Provincial Wildrose voters?!

Green must be their favourite colour. That or they hate all the established parties.

[Hatman 🍁]

Today there will be a bunch of polls released. It's already begun, and it is only 6 AM in Alberta

Leger:

NDP: 38
PC: 30
WRP: 24
ALP: 6
AP: 1
Oth: 1

Return On Insight:

NDP: 38
PC: 24
WRP: 21
ALP: 10
AP: 4


Looks like the PCs are moving into second place. This could be bad news for the NDP if soft Wildrose voters go PC at the last minute. I know some will tell us their 2nd vote would be for the NDP, but I think the 2nd vote of the soft WRP voters is more likely to be PC voters. More committed Wildrosers will say their 2nd preference would be NDP I think.

[Boston Bread]

The NDP lead appears to be confirmed. But I would prefer WR to be second, to keep strategic voters on the right confused as to which party to vote for.

[Zanas]

Who the hell are all these Federal Green/Provincial Wildrose voters?!

Green must be their favourite colour. That or they hate all the established parties.

That struck me as well, but probably just a very small sub-sample.

Oh and at this point, given what the recent history of provincial polling has provided us with, I'll say that the PC will be reelected.

[Marokai Backbeat]

The NDP's overall lead is nice and all, but racking up super high numbers in Edmonton doesn't help them anywhere else. If the PCs end up at 30, the NDP would have to blow that number away if they want anything close to a comfortable majority, or a majority alone, and it seems like 40 is a number the NDP can't really crack. Which is an astonishing area to them hovering around in the first place, but still. Everyone says they hate the PCs, but no matter how much that province may be "changing" lately, it's still Alberta and the NDP are still the NDP.

[Boston Bread]

The NDP have been straight upwards since the election began. First, their ceiling was 20. Then 30. Now 40. But is it even going to stop there???

[Hatman 🍁]

At this point, I'm going to predict a 30-30 PV tie (NDP-PC), which probably means a PC majority.

[Boston Bread]

More committed Wildrosers will say their 2nd preference would be NDP I think.

a.k.a an Ezra Levant voter? https://mobile.twitter.com/ezralevant/status/593584755096100864

If the polls are wrong again and PCs win, would it be due to an over sampling of NDP voters or a last minute swing to PC?