Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[DL]

The fact is "hung parliaments "are relatively rare in Canada to begin with - so to say that coalition government is rare is kind of beside the point

[Хahar 🤔]

The fact is "hung parliaments "are relatively rare in Canada to begin with - so to say that coalition government is rare is kind of beside the point

This is...not true at all? I can't think of another Western country that uses single-member districts where it is more common for legislatures not to have a majority party than Canada. It was very recently that three consecutive federal elections resulted in no party winning a majority. Lester Pearson never had a majority in the Commons during his tenure as Prime Minister. Minority governments aren't quite as common in provincial legislatures, but they have happened in almost every province. If you say that they're "relatively rare", I really have to question what you're talking about. Canada has plenty of precedent for elections in which no party wins a majority. I can't understand why you're acting like it would be something novel.

[lilTommy]

The fact is "hung parliaments "are relatively rare in Canada to begin with - so to say that coalition government is rare is kind of beside the point

This is...not true at all? I can't think of another Western country that uses single-member districts where it is more common for legislatures not to have a majority party than Canada. It was very recently that three consecutive federal elections resulted in no party winning a majority. Lester Pearson never had a majority in the Commons during his tenure as Prime Minister. Minority governments aren't quite as common in provincial legislatures, but they have happened in almost every province. If you say that they're "relatively rare", I really have to question what you're talking about. Canada has plenty of precedent for elections in which no party wins a majority. I can't understand why you're acting like it would be something novel.

I think we can say in Alberta minority governments are rare since the PCs have been in government since 71'. But we've had two, since the 2010's, of recent minority governments in Ontario and Quebec. In western Canada, in recent history, we've seen mostly two-party rule in SASK, MAN and BC so that makes minority government rare but the history is there for them especially when the third party is able to develop a base or niche within a province and can expand on it.

[DC Al Fine]

Ok prediction time

NDP: 50
Wildrose: 21
PC: 15
Liberal: 1

[Marokai Backbeat]

Insights Poll: 42-27-23-4

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Insights Poll: 42-27-23-4

[Boston Bread]

I think the Insights poll is going to be the last poll we have. Still no sign of a PC bump anywhere.

[ag]

No sleep tomorrow

Even given the overconcentration of NDP vote in Edmonton, this looks good for them. But I will believe it when I see it.

[Boston Bread]

A massive NDP victory will result in some "interesting" candidates being elected. Quite a few university students. If only Ontario had smaller ridings - then even I could run for them whenever an Orange Crush happens here! And an Hugo Chavez fan in Edmonton-Ellersie, who some conservatives are pointing to as evidence of "NDP extremism" (My model shows this riding as a 59-20 NDP gain right now).

[windjammer]

Wait,
Alberta isn't a really conservative region?

[Boston Bread]

Wait,
Alberta isn't a really conservative region?

Oh, try reading the topic's start. Nobody believed the first indicators of an NDP surge. But now every pollster is showing an NDP government is possible, and probably a majority at that.

Basically: The PC budget, which was supposed to be the centrepiece of the PC platform, has become unpopular to both the right and left. Spending cuts that affect the poor. Tax increases that affects the middle class more than the elites. PC has been in for 44 years and a lot of cronyism has been built up. Notley has been a great campaigner and had a stellar debate performance, and is the only opposition party to field candidates in all districts. Polls started showing that the NDP were a viable centre-left opposition party, causing centrist PCs and Liberals to run to the NDP, especially now that they are now longer afraid of Wildrose. Meanwhile Wildrose leader Jean has done little of note and harps robotically about lower taxes, maintaining his base but not much else.

[Holmes]

Final Forum poll shows 45/23/23.

[cp]

Seat Prediction:

NDP: 56
Wildrose: 25
PC: 4
Liberal: 1
Alberta Party: 1

Vote Share:

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 27%
PC: 18%
Liberal: 4%
Alberta Party: 4%
Others: 3%

Man, I hope I'm right.

[Marokai Backbeat]

It's a 2% increase for the PCs since Forum's last poll, but there was also a 3% increase for the NDP, and all of that's within the margin of error, so take it for what you will I suppose.

[cp]

Something interesting I noticed in the Forum poll: according to the age breakdowns, the PCs are most popular with seniors (65+), Wildrose with Gen Xers (35-44), and the NDP with Millennials (25-34).

If there's anything to the narrative about generational/demographic shifts fueling this election, these numbers might indicate such a shift is not so straightforward or coherent as it may seem.

[MaxQue]

I'm slightly more confident than before about NDP, since Notley has wonderful approval ratings while Prentice's ones are well into negative territory.

[Holmes]

I'm more interested in seeing how many seats the PC's famed ground game can save them.

[cp]

There's no question they've got the money, the bodies, and the training for a great ground game, but will it be enough?

And more interestingly, will it do anything at all?

I remember during Mulcair's 2007 by-election win in Outremont Liberals belatedly pouring into the riding to get their supporters out to the polls only to find out that most of them had already decided to vote NDP!

[MaxQue]

There's no question they've got the money, the bodies, and the training for a great ground game, but will it be enough?

And more interestingly, will it do anything at all?

I remember during Mulcair's 2007 by-election win in Outremont Liberals belatedly pouring into the riding to get their supporters out to the polls only to find out that most of them had already decided to vote NDP!

And Bloc driving NDP voters to polls in 2011. At a point, if people are really fed up at you, your ground game just backfires.

[Krago]

Angus Reid just came out with a poll that asks lots of questions about people's attitudes towards the parties and leaders EXCEPT the ballot question!

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015.05-Alberta-Election.pdf

[Boston Bread]

With the polls showing no indication of a PC bump, I'll assume this election is like Quebec 2014 or Nova Scotia 2013 where there was no last minute incumbent recovery. I'll go with a poll average. My model allocates some Lib/AB votes to the NDP in ridings where they have no candidate, bumping the NDP to 45%.

My final projection:
45% NDP, 63 seats
24.6% WR, 18 seats
24% PC, 5 seats
3.6% Liberal, 0 seats
1.9% Alberta, 1 seat
0.9% Other, 0 seats

Final map

[Tender Branson]

My prediction (out of the hat):

38% NDP (46 seats)
26% PC (18 seats)
24% WR (20 seats)
  6% LIB (2 seats)
  4% AP (1 seat)
  2% Others

Turnout: 58%

[Zanas]

Though I followed this here and it's been quite a fun ride, I can't pretend I'm an expert in Canadian or Albertan politics and elections, so I'll make a prediction just for the sheer fun of it.

Vote share :

NDP 39.5 %
WR 28 %
PC 23 %
Lib 4.5 %
AP 3 %
Other 2 %

Seats :

NDP 42
WR 19
PC 23
Lib 2
AP 1

I think NDP falls just short of a majority because, in spite of polls and everything, this is still Alberta. I think WR makes the difference in the PV, but poorly distributed enough to fall short of forming official opposition, though this should be a horse race with the PC. Both Lib and AP survive, despite what we've just seen in PEI, just because it would be more fun that way !

[the506]

I'm thinking NDP majority while Prentice gets Campbelled. 61-15-9-1-1.

[Hatman 🍁]

Final Forum poll shows 45/23/23.

Well, I'm convinced!