Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Vosem]

The three random non-Calgary area PC seats (Peace River, Vermillion, and Grande Prairie-Wapiti) really ruin the map aesthetically.

[politicallefty]

CBC PROJECTS NDP MAJORITY.

[CountyTy90]

#NotleyCrüe

[Boston Bread]

CBC PROJECTS NDP MAJORITY.

[Zanas]

For now it seems we'll get 5 parties in, Libs and AP both clinging on to one seat. I switched WR and PC in vote efficiency in my prediction.

[Ebsy]

It should be easy for Prentice to hold onto the leadership of the PCs considering all of his fellow MLAs are being defeated en masse. Who's even left to challenge him?

(joking)

[Lief 🗽]

NDP popular vote is dropping, but they're holding on at around 54 seats.

[Boston Bread]

WR is official opposition. Most seat projections from polls look dead on.

[Vosem]

Meanwhile, in bizarro world, PCs regain the lead in Cardston-Taber-Warner, which went Wildrose by double-digits in 2012. Huh?

NDP lead with 55 seats, to 19 Wildrose, 11 PC, and 1 each for Liberals and Alberta Party. Popular vote is 40% NDP, 25% Wildrose, 28% PC, 4% Liberal, 2% Alberta.

[Lief 🗽]

NDP below 40% now

[Boston Bread]

Wildrose official says it's a good result for them. They've seemed unusually defeatist this whole campaign. 2012 and 2014 have left their mark.

[MaxQue]

Wildrose official says it's a good result for them. They've seemed unusually defeatist this whole campaign. 2012 and 2014 have left their mark.

They totally faded after the debate. They were invisible.

[Vosem]

If not for Banff-Cochrane, Calgary could be an NDP circle (with 2 spots in it, though), surrounded by a PC circle, surrounded by Wildrose. The NDP leads Wildrose just 38%-35% in Banff -- come on...

Wildrose official says it's a good result for them. They've seemed unusually defeatist this whole campaign. 2012 and 2014 have left their mark.

It is. It sets them up to form government once the NDP falls in a decade or so.

[RogueBeaver]

Prentice to concede in about 10-15 minutes.

[Lief 🗽]

Hahah the Liberal operative on CBC: "this is the second election in a row where Albertans have picked the most left-wing major party"

[Boston Bread]

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

[Talleyrand]

CBC projects Official Opposition to be Wildrose

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

If not for Banff-Cochrane, Calgary could be an NDP circle (with 2 spots in it, though), surrounded by a PC circle, surrounded by Wildrose. The NDP leads Wildrose just 38%-35% in Banff -- come on...

Wildrose official says it's a good result for them. They've seemed unusually defeatist this whole campaign. 2012 and 2014 have left their mark.

It is. It sets them up to form government once the NDP falls in a decade or so.

Or to sit on the opposition benches over the coming 40 year reign of the NDP

[Ebsy]

How many PC appointees in the provincial government are going to lose their jobs?

[Vosem]

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

[Lief 🗽]

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Yeah, but SoCred and Farmers Union and whatever were basically regional parties. The PCs have the national Tory infrastructure to support them. Also, the PCs are a center-right party; in a two-way NDP-Wild Rose race, some of the PC vote is going to pick the NDP.

[MaxQue]

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Not sure. There is some centrists in PC which voted PC this time, but will prefer NDP to WR.
Also, some electors are not ideological at all and will just vote for government (or against government).

[Zanas]

Dat PC vote inefficiency tho... Ô_o"

It seems a lot of people ended up casting a Conservative vote in places where it ultimately didn't matter.

NDP vote share should stabilise just below 40%. I'll be a Tender and say I told you so.

[ag]

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

For the moment his sounds reasonable. However, one should take into account that next time NDP will no longer be an unknown quantity. If they are bad, they will fade. But if they do decently, they might get an incumbency advantage that would make them pretty difficult to dislodge.

[Hatman 🍁]

Meanwhile, in bizarro world, PCs regain the lead in Cardston-Taber-Warner, which went Wildrose by double-digits in 2012. Huh?

That riding went for them in 2008, too (only one)