Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015
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  Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015
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Author Topic: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015  (Read 91228 times)
MaxQue
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« Reply #700 on: May 05, 2015, 10:35:01 PM »

Meanwhile, in bizarro world, PCs regain the lead in Cardston-Taber-Warner, which went Wildrose by double-digits in 2012. Huh?


That riding went for them in 2008, too (only one)

I suppose it was quite sensible to anti-NDP arguments.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #701 on: May 05, 2015, 10:36:54 PM »

I may sleep in peace now.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #702 on: May 05, 2015, 10:38:29 PM »

NDP popular vote ticking up again now.
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Vosem
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« Reply #703 on: May 05, 2015, 10:39:07 PM »

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Yeah, but SoCred and Farmers Union and whatever were basically regional parties. The PCs have the national Tory infrastructure to support them. Also, the PCs are a center-right party; in a two-way NDP-Wild Rose race, some of the PC vote is going to pick the NDP.

United Farmers and SoCred weren't regional parties (United Farmers formed government in Ontario in 1919, though they were always strongest in Alberta), and SoCred was strongest federally in Quebec and in BC at the state level by the second half of the 1960s (indeed, they were not dislodged in BC until the 1990s). I don't know that national Tory infrastructure will back up the PCs; keep in mind that the modern Conservative Party is descended from Reform more than from anyone else, and there're certainly lots of federal Conservatives -- especially in Alberta -- who would prefer to see Wildrose triumph. (As opposed to Confederation of Regions, which I mentioned earlier, which did incur some hostility from the federal right-wing establishment).

Wildrose, on the other hand, is a regional party. But western provincial right-wingers are going for that nowadays (see Saskatchewan Party and BC Liberals, though those are both significantly to Wildrose's left).

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Not sure. There is some centrists in PC which voted PC this time, but will prefer NDP to WR.
Also, some electors are not ideological at all and will just vote for government (or against government).

Most PCs would probably prefer Wildrose to the NDP, though. That might not've been the case if we were dealing with a Liberal surge, but we're not. The NDP will gain pro-incumbent voters, but they will lose anti-incumbent voters, so we'll see how that turns out. (Historically, though, Alberta has been very pro-incumbent, but the incumbents have always been right-wing since, well, SoCred came into office).

Dat PC vote inefficiency tho... Ô_o"

It seems a lot of people ended up casting a Conservative vote in places where it ultimately didn't matter.

NDP vote share should stabilise just below 40%. I'll be a Tender and say I told you so.

It seemed very efficient at first when the PCs were over 1/3 of the vote. The vote just isn't designed to be so low.

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

For the moment his sounds reasonable. However, one should take into account that next time NDP will no longer be an unknown quantity. If they are bad, they will fade. But if they do decently, they might get an incumbency advantage that would make them pretty difficult to dislodge.

What will make them very difficult to dislodge is the continuing Wildrose v. PC rivalry, which will probably still be a thing in 4 years. The SoCreds took 12 years to die after 1971. If the PCs take 12 years to die now, we could be in for 12 years of NDP government.
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CatoMinor
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« Reply #704 on: May 05, 2015, 10:41:46 PM »

RIP Alberta
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ag
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« Reply #705 on: May 05, 2015, 10:42:11 PM »

Notley riding elects NDP Smiley
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #706 on: May 05, 2015, 10:42:23 PM »

RIP Corruption
RIP Political dynasties
RIP Single party states
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ag
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« Reply #707 on: May 05, 2015, 10:43:17 PM »

Tightest races for the moment in Lesser Slave Lake and Grand Prairie-Smokie. A few votes either way, as tight as it gets.
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Vosem
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« Reply #708 on: May 05, 2015, 10:43:21 PM »
« Edited: May 05, 2015, 10:45:59 PM by Vosem »

Meanwhile, in bizarro world, PCs regain the lead in Cardston-Taber-Warner, which went Wildrose by double-digits in 2012. Huh?


That riding went for them in 2008, too (only one)

I suppose it was quite sensible to anti-NDP arguments.

Wildrose are back up there now, though only 44%-36%, which is a pretty typical margin for the area.

Wildrose have also gained, from PC, the lead in the exurban Calgary seat of Chestermere-Rocky View, which totally changes the way the map around Calgary looks.

And, just as soon as I post this, Chestermere switches back to the PCs. Very narrow election there.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #709 on: May 05, 2015, 10:47:38 PM »

Chestermere-Rocky View is a surprise
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jfern
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« Reply #710 on: May 05, 2015, 10:47:56 PM »

LOL, so much for the Texas of Canada.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #711 on: May 05, 2015, 10:48:41 PM »


I mean, if the Tea Party ran its own candidates in Texas, Democrats might win there too...
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politicallefty
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« Reply #712 on: May 05, 2015, 10:49:09 PM »

Prentice wins reelection in his own riding. Sad
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #713 on: May 05, 2015, 10:49:26 PM »

Lesser Slave Lake is a real nailbiter.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #714 on: May 05, 2015, 10:50:01 PM »

Prentice wins reelection in his own riding. Sad
Don't worry. It will only prolong his suffering.
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #715 on: May 05, 2015, 10:50:32 PM »

NDP win all 21 ridings in Edmonton and suburban Edmonton.
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Vosem
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« Reply #716 on: May 05, 2015, 10:51:36 PM »

Lesser Slave Lake just switched from being Wildrose by 3 votes to being NDP by 7 votes. I wonder why Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock is so much more strongly Wildrose than all its neighbors.

Prentice wins reelection in his own riding. Sad
Don't worry. It will only prolong his suffering.

He'll probably resign within the year.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #717 on: May 05, 2015, 10:52:35 PM »

The PC electoral party seems even more depressing than a funeral. People talk to each other in a funeral, at least.

Party staffers are trying to convince partisans to go sit in the first rank, so Prentice can shake hands once he enters the stage.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #718 on: May 05, 2015, 10:53:25 PM »

Lesser Slave Lake just switched from being Wildrose by 3 votes to being NDP by 7 votes. I wonder why Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock is so much more strongly Wildrose than all its neighbors.

Prentice wins reelection in his own riding. Sad
Don't worry. It will only prolong his suffering.

He'll probably resign within the year.

Month, if not tonight.
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MaxQue
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« Reply #719 on: May 05, 2015, 10:54:16 PM »

62% of vote for NDP in Edmonton.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #720 on: May 05, 2015, 10:54:57 PM »

Congrats Dippers! Mission accomplished.
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Ebsy
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« Reply #721 on: May 05, 2015, 10:57:28 PM »

Reading this thread from the beginning is a pure joy.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #722 on: May 05, 2015, 10:57:38 PM »

hahaha prentice looks so pissed
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Sumner 1868
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« Reply #723 on: May 05, 2015, 10:58:01 PM »


He probably is.
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exnaderite
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« Reply #724 on: May 05, 2015, 10:59:09 PM »

Prentice sounds like a bureaucrat or CEO, not a politician.
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