Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[MaxQue]

Can some Canadian etc. please explain to me in 3-5 short sentences what happened and why ?

I always thought Alberta is the Canadian Utah or Wyoming and now this NDP-surge. It's as if a Green Party governor won the election in UT or WY.

Also, this was my prediction:

My prediction (out of the hat):

38% NDP (46 seats)
26% PC (18 seats)
24% WR (20 seats)
 6% LIB (2 seats)
 4% AP (1 seat)
 2% Others

Turnout: 58%

How did I do and where can someone find results ?

Thx.

NDP 40.6% (53 seats)
Wildrose 24.2% (20 seats)
PC 27.8% (10 seats, but really 9 since Prentice already resigned)
Liberals 4.2% (1 seat)
Alberta Party 2.3% (1 seat)
?: 2 seats (it's an exact tie between PC and NDP in Calgary-Glenmore. There will be a recount by a judge, if still tied, the election will be called unconclusive and a by-election called for the seat. Also, Chestermere-Rocky View has a few boxes of votes to still count and it's too close between PC and WR).

There is already one by-election to call in Calgary-Foothills, to replace resigning Premier, PC leader and MLA Jim Prentice.

[Ebsy]

NDP just made 600,000 votes

The pundits were sure right about that 20% 30% 40% 41% NDP electoral ceiling!

[Tender Branson]

Thanks, Max.

It looks I nailed the WR percentage and seats and was closer to the other results than what Canadian pollsters predicted ...

What was turnout ?

And why did the NPD gain that much in such a right-wing stronghold ?

[Njall]

Because my brain can't get off the topic of recounts right now, I've been wondering if a recount will also end up happening in Little Bow?  Ian Donovan only lost by 12 votes...

[Ebsy]

What was turnout ?

My initial calculation is 58.3-58.5% turnout.

[MaxQue]

What was turnout ?

And why did the NPD gain that much in such a right-wing stronghold ?

58%

Because my brain can't get off the topic of recounts right now, I've been wondering if a recount will also end up happening in Little Bow?  Ian Donovan only lost by 12 votes...

No automatic recount in Alberta unless it's tied, but Ian Donovan or his agent can ask one to a judge. He has 8 days after the official vote addition to do so, recount must begin in the 10 days after the demand (if not rejected).

[Tender Branson]

I think I should do more Canadian election predictions ...

[Adam Griffin]

[MaxQue]

Chestermere-Rocky View will most likely be WR. They lead by 222 votes with one box left.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

I don't know too much about Albertan politics, aside from a brief history of the different periods of government. So, I was wondering, given Alberta's long history of conservatism:

• Did the incumbent government do something extremely bad to lose?
• Was it vote-splitting between the Tories and Wildrose?
• Or did people just want a change?

[MaxQue]

WR won in Chestermere-Rocky View.

[Lief 🗽]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

NDP would have won under IRV too (though maybe with a few less seats). NDP was the second choice of WRP voters.

[Boston Bread]

Griff, seat #77 (Rimbey-Rocky... long name) should be Wildrose. Thanks for make of course.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

I don't know too much about Albertan politics, aside from a brief history of the different periods of government. So, I was wondering, given Alberta's long history of conservatism:

• Did the incumbent government do something extremely bad to lose?
• Was it vote-splitting between the Tories and Wildrose?
• Or did people just want a change?

Kind of all of the above, as I understand it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Alberta tradition suggests that the NDP will now rule for a couple of decades at least. lol.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

NDP would have won under IRV too (though maybe with a few less seats). NDP was the second choice of WRP voters.

I think I saw that earlier in the thread, that's somewhat surprising at face value, but then again, I don't know much about Albertan politics.

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

I don't know too much about Albertan politics, aside from a brief history of the different periods of government. So, I was wondering, given Alberta's long history of conservatism:

• Did the incumbent government do something extremely bad to lose?
• Was it vote-splitting between the Tories and Wildrose?
• Or did people just want a change?

Kind of all of the above, as I understand it.

Makes sense, the first and third points remind me of Queensland's 1989 election, which also ended a long conservative dynasty.

[cp]

"I haven't done the math yet but [1 minute of cheering] we've elected the most women ever."

yaaassss

Love it! Even better, from the looks of it (skip to 3:45) she didn't even mean it as a zinger. She just sort of stumbled into the joke by accident!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eJJ4kD7xVLs


For those hungry for a bit of schadenfreude, here's Prentice's concession speech:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NafLs1RR4A0

[136or142]

Anybody think the P.C Party will put pressure on Jim Prentice to keep his seat, at least for awhile?

[136or142]

Final Results
Total: 1,486,877
NDP: 603,461 40.59%
P.C: 412,955 27.78%
WR: 360,101 24.22%
Lib:   62,171
Alb:  33,867
Other: 14,322
Turnout 59% (Roughly)

[136or142]

The NDP have won 14 of 26 ridings in Calgary and its suburbs and I would expect the one tie result to go to the NDP if it goes to a byelection as well.

Assuming the tie in Calgary-Glenmore goes to the NDP, the NDP caucus will contain 27 men and 27 women.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Any indications of a Cabinet?

[publicunofficial]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

I don't know too much about Albertan politics, aside from a brief history of the different periods of government. So, I was wondering, given Alberta's long history of conservatism:

• Did the incumbent government do something extremely bad to lose?
• Was it vote-splitting between the Tories and Wildrose?
• Or did people just want a change?

As I understand it, the recent dip in the oil market a few months back did major harm to Alberta's economy. The Tories attempted to solve this issue with their budget, which had something in it for EVERYONE to hate, including more than 50 different tax hikes. This plus the already surging NDP and Wildrose parties have created an election where nearly everyone has a reason to vote against the PC's and a genuine alternative option to vote for.

[MaxQue]

This is not a good day for conservatives in Alberta... On another note, how many Tories and Wildrose voters will start calling for IRV in Alberta?

I don't know too much about Albertan politics, aside from a brief history of the different periods of government. So, I was wondering, given Alberta's long history of conservatism:

• Did the incumbent government do something extremely bad to lose?
• Was it vote-splitting between the Tories and Wildrose?
• Or did people just want a change?

As I understand it, the recent dip in the oil market a few months back did major harm to Alberta's economy. The Tories attempted to solve this issue with their budget, which had something in it for EVERYONE to hate, including more than 50 different tax hikes. This plus the already surging NDP and Wildrose parties have created an election where nearly everyone has a reason to vote against the PC's and a genuine alternative option to vote for.

Also, the 50 tax hikes were all on people. Corporations had no change in taxes.

[136or142]

My cabinet prediction (I'm not an insider or anything so take this for what it's worth. I expect to at least get 'Premier' correct)
1.Premier/Federal Provincial Relations, Rachel Notley, MLA 2008-, Nurses Union Labour Relations Officer, Former Labour Lawyer, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Strathcona

2.Finance, Brian Mason, MLA 2000-, Party Leader 2004-2014, Bus Driver, City Councillor 1989-2000, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

3.Economic Development and Trade, Joe Ceci, NPO Public Policy Program Manager, Former Community Worker, City Councillor 1995-2010, MSW, Calgary-Fort

4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture/North, Marg McCuaig-Boyd, Small Business Consultant, Former Grand Prairie Regional College Campus Vice President, Former Teacher, B.A-Education, M.A-Administration and Leadership, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley (Northern Alberta)

5.Labour and Immigration/Women, Kathleen Ganley, Labour and Employment Lawyer, B.A-Philosophy (Hons), B.A-Psychology, Calgary-Buffalo

6.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Oneil Carlier, PSAC Regional Representative, Former Agriculture Canada Geotechnical Technician, Whitecourt-Ste Anne (West Central Alberta)

7.Natural Resources, Eric Rosendahl, Retired Pulp Mill Worker and President Yellowhead Labour Council, President Hinton Fish and Game Association, West Yellowhead (West Central Alberta)

8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Anam Kazim, Applications Engineer, B.Sc-Chemical Engineering, M.Sc-BioChemical and Environmental Engineering, Calgary-Glenmore

9.Environment, Marlin Schmidt, Provincial Environment Ministry Scientist, Former Environmental Consultant, Professional Accordion Player, M.Sc-Hydrogeology, Edmonton-Gold Bar

10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Shannon Phillips, Alberta Federation of Labour Policy Analyst, Past Chair Womanspace Resource Centre, B.A-Political Science (Hons), M.A-Political Science, Lethbridge West (Southern Alberta)

11.Government Services and Public Works/House Leader, David Eggen, MLA 2004-2008, 2012-, Executive Director Alberta Friends of Medicare, Former High School English Teacher and Union Activist, Former High School Coach, B.A-Education, Edmonton-Calder

12.Human Resources and Housing, Marie Renaud, LoSeCa Foundation Executive Director, St. Albert (Suburban Edmonton)

13.Children and Family Development, Lori Sigurdson, Alberta College of Social Work Manager for Professional Affairs, Social Work Instructor and former Social Worker, Vice President Public Interest Alberta, MSW, Former Sunday School Teacher, Edmonton-Riverview

14.Education, Sarah Hoffman, Former Alberta NDP Caucus Research Director, Public School Trustee 2010-? Board Chair 2012-?, M.A-Educational Policy Studies, Edmonton-Glenora

15.Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Bruce Hinkley, Retired School Principal, B.A-Education, M.A-, Wetaskiwin-Camrose (East Central Alberta)

16.Health/Seniors, Bob Turner, Physician and Retired Medical and Oncology Professor, Former Hospital Director of Clinical Hematology, Former Canadian Red Cross Transfusion Service Medical Director, Edmonton-Whitemud

17.Municipal Affairs, Bob Wanner, Mediator, Retired Medicine Hat Commissioner of Public Services, MBA, Medicine Hat

18.Aboriginal Affairs, Colin Piquette, Educational Policy Studies Instructor, President Boyle and District Chamber of Commerce, Director Boyle District Agriculture Society, B.A-Political Science, M.A-Adult Education, Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater (Northern Alberta)

19.Attorney General, Stephanie McLean, Family and Criminal Defense Lawyer and Firm Partner, Alberta Criminal Defense Lawyers Association Executive, Calgary-Varsity

Speaker, Deron Bilous, MLA 2012-

[Jens]

What an amazing result
NDP in Alberta. I hope they do well