Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

So it looks like you've redistributed the advance polls? We're working on a map right now, and it looks like Blakeman won a lot of E-Day polls.

I don't think I see any difference there between your map and his

I haven't made a map; a colleague of has made one and asked for my input, and we have yet to publicize it.  But now that I've double checked it, I see that we made an error (hence why we haven't publicized it)

[Bacon King]

So it looks like you've redistributed the advance polls? We're working on a map right now, and it looks like Blakeman won a lot of E-Day polls.

I don't think I see any difference there between your map and his

I haven't made a map; a colleague of has made one and asked for my input, and we have yet to publicize it.  But now that I've double checked it, I see that we made an error (hence why we haven't publicized it)

my bad, when liltommy shared a map on the previous page I thought it was you sharing the one you were talking about; all you orange Ontarios look the same to me

[Krago]

So it looks like you've redistributed the advance polls? We're working on a map right now, and it looks like Blakeman won a lot of E-Day polls.

I don't think I see any difference there between your map and his

I haven't made a map; a colleague of has made one and asked for my input, and we have yet to publicize it.  But now that I've double checked it, I see that we made an error (hence why we haven't publicized it)

It looks like Edmonton Centre Poll 39 is another typo: Lib 143, WR 38, Ind 27, PC 5, Crazy Guy 1, NDP 0.  Maybe it's best to wait until the official counts next week.

Of course not!

[136or142]

It turns out Prentice didn't resign because he lost, he left to search for the real killers!

[Qavvavak]

Alberta First Nation NDP candidate says she faced hate, racism on campaign trail

http://aptn.ca/news/2015/05/08/alberta-first-nation-ndp-candidate-says-faced-hate-racism-campaign-trail/

her riding voted 28% NDP... Wildrose 37%

[Hatman 🍁]

Alberta First Nation NDP candidate says she faced hate, racism on campaign trail

http://aptn.ca/news/2015/05/08/alberta-first-nation-ndp-candidate-says-faced-hate-racism-campaign-trail/

her riding voted 28% NDP... Wildrose 37%

Alberta may not be as conservative as we thought, but it is still just as racist.

[Hatman 🍁]

Someone on Twitter in regards to the Peace River poll 61 error:

"the correct votes for poll 61 in #PeaceRiver are #abparty 42 NDP 351 #PCCA 193 so the result stands with NDP winning #abvote"

No proof provided though

[the506]

Definitely seems from his twitter feed he was involved in the local Wildrose campaign, so I'd imagine he'd have access to the real results from the scrutineers.

https://twitter.com/AL_FORSYTH

I hope he's right.

[politicallefty]

Central Edmonton: 191,025 11 ridings
NDP: 129,078 67.57%, 11
P.C: 33,714 17.65
WRP: 13,150 6.88
Lib: 12,432 6.51
AP: 1,742 0.91
Oth: 909

Is Central Edmonton the city limits of Edmonton or something else? Either way, the NDP got more votes there this time than in the entire province in 2012 (by just over 2000 votes). In fact, that vote total alone is higher than anything for the NDP province-wide since 1989.

[DL]

Central Edmonton: 191,025 11 ridings
NDP: 129,078 67.57%, 11
P.C: 33,714 17.65
WRP: 13,150 6.88
Lib: 12,432 6.51
AP: 1,742 0.91
Oth: 909

Is Central Edmonton the city limits of Edmonton or something else? Either way, the NDP got more votes there this time than in the entire province in 2012 (by just over 2000 votes). In fact, that vote total alone is higher than anything for the NDP province-wide since 1989.

Jeez, these NDP numbers in Edmonton are stunning - usually the only time you see any party in a western democracy winning by such a lopsided margin is in cases where a whole city is dominated by an ethnic minority - you could see Barack Obama winning African-American areas of Chicago with margins like that - or anglo parts of Montreal giving the Quebec Liberals margins like that over the PQ in provincial elections. But its extraordinary to see such a swing in a place as "middle of the road" as Edmonton

[adma]

Jeez, these NDP numbers in Edmonton are stunning - usually the only time you see any party in a western democracy winning by such a lopsided margin is in cases where a whole city is dominated by an ethnic minority - you could see Barack Obama winning African-American areas of Chicago with margins like that - or anglo parts of Montreal giving the Quebec Liberals margins like that over the PQ in provincial elections. But its extraordinary to see such a swing in a place as "middle of the road" as Edmonton

Actually, you forgot something--these kinds of lopsided margins have been pro forma in Alberta federally under Harper (y'know, Conservative 70something while everybody else struggles to hit 10%)

[136or142]

Central Edmonton: 191,025 11 ridings
NDP: 129,078 67.57%, 11
P.C: 33,714 17.65
WRP: 13,150 6.88
Lib: 12,432 6.51
AP: 1,742 0.91
Oth: 909

Is Central Edmonton the city limits of Edmonton or something else? Either way, the NDP got more votes there this time than in the entire province in 2012 (by just over 2000 votes). In fact, that vote total alone is higher than anything for the NDP province-wide since 1989.

I'm pretty sure a bunch of the ridings that the Wiki Page (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alberta_general_election,_2015) called 'suburban Edmonton' actually include ridings in the city of Edmonton as well.  In those ridings (Iincluding the actual suburban ridings)  the NDP got around 58% of the vote.

[Hatman 🍁]

Central Edmonton: 191,025 11 ridings
NDP: 129,078 67.57%, 11
P.C: 33,714 17.65
WRP: 13,150 6.88
Lib: 12,432 6.51
AP: 1,742 0.91
Oth: 909

Is Central Edmonton the city limits of Edmonton or something else? Either way, the NDP got more votes there this time than in the entire province in 2012 (by just over 2000 votes). In fact, that vote total alone is higher than anything for the NDP province-wide since 1989.

Jeez, these NDP numbers in Edmonton are stunning - usually the only time you see any party in a western democracy winning by such a lopsided margin is in cases where a whole city is dominated by an ethnic minority - you could see Barack Obama winning African-American areas of Chicago with margins like that - or anglo parts of Montreal giving the Quebec Liberals margins like that over the PQ in provincial elections. But its extraordinary to see such a swing in a place as "middle of the road" as Edmonton

Nah, Obama usually wins 90%+ of the vote in Black areas. Similar numbers for Anglos in Quebec voting Liberal.

[Hatman 🍁]

At least one media source has picked up on our Peace River poll 61 quandary: http://www.ylcountry.com/2015/05/09/peace-river-poll-61-numbering-mistake/

Looks like while there was an error, the NDP still wins.

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's that map my colleague made, that I mentioned earlier: http://maps.grahampressey.ca/abel2015/

Note, the shades are population density and not % of the vote.

[Krago]

Former Alberta Party candidate tweeted that NDP candidate Anam Kazim has won Calgary-Glenmore by six votes. #yycglenmore

[Panhandle Progressive]

Had there been a WR / PC merger like was rumored back in Dec. it could have significantly altered the outcome of this election. Assuming the new combined party neither gained nor lost votes but had exactly the same number of votes, ED's 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,13,15,17,19,20,21,23,24,48,49,60,67,72,74,75,76,81,82,85,86 and 87 would have been flipped from NDP to the new combined center-right party.

MERGED WR / PC = 60 seats
NDP = 25 seats

The first column are NDP votes while the second is a combined total of all WR / PC votes from 2015 cycle.
01 3,694 5,899
02 3,908 5,146
03 5,503 9,585
04 5,680 9,170
05 4,671 5,094
06 4,602 6,564
07 7,317 8,241
08 5,502 7,620
13 7,015 12,073
15 7,441 10,823
17 8,105 9,036
19 6,158 9,558
20 3,783 5,682
21 5,674 6,771
23 6,652 9,727
24 5,444 10,651
48 6,795 9,992
49 8,428 11,187
60 8,974 9,480
67 8,386 12,772
72 6,159 8,987
74 3,660 5,357
75 4,973 8,000
76 7,023 10,227
81 7,261 10,392
82 9,361 11,896
85 4,141 6,479
86 7,525 9,633
87 5,472 9,715

NDP could be in big trouble if the two center-right parties merge before the next election.

[RogueBeaver]

They won't merge, they will have to be vaporized. Notley will start the process by asphyxiating them with her corporate/union $ ban.

[Hatman 🍁]

Had there been a WR / PC merger like was rumored back in Dec. it could have significantly altered the outcome of this election. Assuming the new combined party neither gained nor lost votes but had exactly the same number of votes, ED's 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,13,15,17,19,20,21,23,24,48,49,60,67,72,74,75,76,81,82,85,86 and 87 would have been flipped from NDP to the new combined center-right party.

MERGED WR / PC = 60 seats
NDP = 25 seats

The first column are NDP votes while the second is a combined total of all WR / PC votes from 2015 cycle.
01 3,694 5,899
02 3,908 5,146
03 5,503 9,585
04 5,680 9,170
05 4,671 5,094
06 4,602 6,564
07 7,317 8,241
08 5,502 7,620
13 7,015 12,073
15 7,441 10,823
17 8,105 9,036
19 6,158 9,558
20 3,783 5,682
21 5,674 6,771
23 6,652 9,727
24 5,444 10,651
48 6,795 9,992
49 8,428 11,187
60 8,974 9,480
67 8,386 12,772
72 6,159 8,987
74 3,660 5,357
75 4,973 8,000
76 7,023 10,227
81 7,261 10,392
82 9,361 11,896
85 4,141 6,479
86 7,525 9,633
87 5,472 9,715

NDP could be in big trouble if the two center-right parties merge before the next election.

We don't care about district numbers in Canada

[Krago]

We don't care about district numbers in Canada

*** Comment not valid in Prince Edward Island.

[Hatman 🍁]

We don't care about district numbers in Canada

*** Comment not valid in Prince Edward Island.

Comment especially valid in PEI

[136or142]

Brian Topp has been appointed Rachel Notley's Chief of Staff. I was going to put him on my list of potential Chiefs of Staff but I thought he was from Ontario not Saskatchewan as I was familiar with him as the former top aide to Jack Layton and was unaware that he had previously been a senior aide to Roy Romanow.

Good to see Anam Kazim win, that makes the final results baring recounts as:
NDP 54
WR 21
P.C 10
Lib 1
Alb 1

Good also to see that the second count had been done in Calgary-Glenora prior to the change of government. I know in 1993 Anne McLellan was almost left out of cabinet due to the very close result in her riding only being finalized a day or two before the cabinet was sworn in.

That said, I now predict that Karen McPherson will be made Energy Minister (if Notley doesn't keep it for herself) rather than Kazim.
1.McPherson represents an outer Calgary riding, and would be the only minister from that region to be in cabinet, whereas Kazim represents a Central Calgary riding and their are already 3 other MLAs from that area who are certain to get in cabinet (former city councillor Joe Ceci, and lawyers Stephanie McLean and Karen Ganley)

2.McPherson is 48 whereas Kazim is 28.  I don't know that a 28 year old, no matter how brilliant they may be, is ready for a job like Energy Minister.

3.McPherson was an Information Technology Professional meaning she also likely has a science background and has also worked in the sector as an oil and gas analyst.

[MaxQue]

Brian Topp has been appointed Rachel Notley's Chief of Staff. I was going to put him on my list of potential Chiefs of Staff but I thought he was from Ontario not Saskatchewan as I was familiar with him as the former top aide to Jack Layton and was unaware that he had previously been a senior aide to Roy Romanow.

He worked for Romanow, but is based in Toronto and was born and grew in Longueuil, a Montreal suburb.

[136or142]

Brian Topp has been appointed Rachel Notley's Chief of Staff. I was going to put him on my list of potential Chiefs of Staff but I thought he was from Ontario not Saskatchewan as I was familiar with him as the former top aide to Jack Layton and was unaware that he had previously been a senior aide to Roy Romanow.

He worked for Romanow, but is based in Toronto and was born and grew in Longueuil, a Montreal suburb.

Hrm, Janice MacKinnon might have been a better fit had she been interested.

MacKinnon or Romanow for senior political advisor?

[136or142]

Has Prentice officially resigned his seat?  How can he resign when he hasn't even been officially reelected yet?

I could see the P.Cs putting pressure on him to stick around, at least for a year or so.