Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015
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  Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015
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Author Topic: Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015  (Read 91230 times)
Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #975 on: May 12, 2015, 07:19:54 PM »

So much for Topp wanting to run federally.
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DL
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« Reply #976 on: May 12, 2015, 09:01:25 PM »


Hrm, Janice MacKinnon might have been a better fit had she been interested.

MacKinnon or Romanow for senior political advisor?

Are you joking?? I can't think of a more horrible pick than Janice MacKinnon - first of all she NOT a political strategist at all - she is an economist and she knows zilch about partisan politics. Second of all she is not a New Democrat anymore. She has gone totally rightwing she is a "useful idiot" who appears on panels as an ex-NDPer who can be relied on to sh**t on the NDP at every opportunity. With "friends" like her - who needs enemies!
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #977 on: May 12, 2015, 09:27:06 PM »
« Edited: May 12, 2015, 11:28:26 PM by Lief 🐋 »

Had there been a WR / PC merger like was rumored back in Dec. it could have significantly altered the outcome of this election. Assuming the new combined party neither gained nor lost votes but had exactly the same number of votes, ED's 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,13,15,17,19,20,21,23,24,48,49,60,67,72,74,75,76,81,82,85,86 and 87 would have been flipped from NDP to the new combined center-right party.

MERGED WR / PC = 60 seats
NDP = 25 seats

Once my exams are done I'm gonna do the math and see what would have happened under IRV. According to at least one poll I found with second preferences, NDP actually narrowly led PCs in WRP second preferences, but WRP was the clear second preference of PC voters. So it'll be interesting to see how the seats would have shaken out.
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Krago
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« Reply #978 on: May 12, 2015, 11:14:07 PM »

Has Prentice officially resigned his seat?  How can he resign when he hasn't even been officially reelected yet?

I could see the P.Cs putting pressure on him to stick around, at least for a year or so.

Harper could appoint Prentice as the new Alberta Lieutenant-Governor.  Or he could appoint Gene Zwozdesky and have him pull double-duty as Speaker too. 
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136or142
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« Reply #979 on: May 13, 2015, 12:46:57 PM »


Hrm, Janice MacKinnon might have been a better fit had she been interested.

MacKinnon or Romanow for senior political advisor?

Are you joking?? I can't think of a more horrible pick than Janice MacKinnon - first of all she NOT a political strategist at all - she is an economist and she knows zilch about partisan politics. Second of all she is not a New Democrat anymore. She has gone totally rightwing she is a "useful idiot" who appears on panels as an ex-NDPer who can be relied on to sh**t on the NDP at every opportunity. With "friends" like her - who needs enemies!

She was actually a Professor of Women's History and not an economist.  She was always on the right wing of the NDP which fit her in quite well with the Romanow government, especially as it was eliminating deficits.  I believe she is still a supporter of the Saskatchewan NDP or, at least, a federal Liberal.  Her support of the NDP likely had to do with social, not economic, issues.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #980 on: May 14, 2015, 05:42:50 PM »

According to Abacus's post-NDPcopalypse poll, the NDP coalition Rachel built is quite similar to NDP coalitions in other provinces, contrary to some polls during the campaigns which showed the NDP doing better with men and the wealthy.

http://abacusdata.ca/no-regrets-about-election-outcome-say-albertans-in-new-poll/



More women than men, more poor than rich, more public sector than private. So not that odd, except for it being in Alberta. One interesting demographic is parents with children - one that is usually more conservative than average, but it seems like the NDP have really made inroads with them. Ontario 2014 showed this trend as well.

Some other facts:
1) Despite the huge poll lead, the most common reaction among Albertans was "surprised".
2) 73% (!!!!) said they would consider voting NDP if they did a good job. More Wildrose than PC voters agree.
3) The only demographics which didn't vote NDP were 60+ and retired (PC), rural and self-employed (WR).
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136or142
Adam T
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« Reply #981 on: May 15, 2015, 01:46:16 AM »

Urban: 43%
Rural: 33%

The urban results are greater than the rural results entirely because or the Edmonton region and, much smaller, Lethbridge.

In the Calgary region, the rural areas (as stated here) and the remaining smaller cities (Red Deer, Medicine Hat, Grand Prairie and Fort McMurrary) the NDP got between 30-35% of the vote everywhere. Not every riding of course, but in every region.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #982 on: May 15, 2015, 02:28:40 PM »
« Edited: May 15, 2015, 04:26:20 PM by Mideast Speaker New Canadaland »

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary/anam-kazim-wins-for-ndp-in-calgary-glenmore-after-recount-1.3076036

Njall officially has an NDP edit: MLA now.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #983 on: May 15, 2015, 02:38:10 PM »

2) 73% (!!!!) said they would consider voting NDP if they did a good job. More Wildrose than PC voters agree.
In fourty years we'll all be talking about the tired old NDP dynasty, and be elated that what replaces it is not, after all, even further to the right than the Alberta NDP.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #984 on: May 15, 2015, 04:14:07 PM »

Final map:



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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #985 on: May 15, 2015, 04:27:45 PM »

Political Division's HQ now has 1 full time employee. Of course there are plenty of employees in other divisions, but Notley can retire them over time.
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ag
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« Reply #986 on: May 15, 2015, 04:29:59 PM »

2) 73% (!!!!) said they would consider voting NDP if they did a good job. More Wildrose than PC voters agree.
In fourty years we'll all be talking about the tired old NDP dynasty, and be elated that what replaces it is not, after all, even further to the right than the Alberta NDP.

You are optimistic about human life expectancy. Not all of us are 20, you know Smiley
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MaxQue
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« Reply #987 on: May 15, 2015, 04:33:28 PM »


You posted twice the same link, Rogue.
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the506
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« Reply #988 on: May 16, 2015, 10:03:10 AM »

The results all atlas-ified:

http://www.election-atlas.ca/alberta/
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Lotuslander
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« Reply #989 on: May 17, 2015, 12:56:52 PM »

"Alberta’s election was more about change, less about the NDP, say voters."

May 17, 2015
By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

Abacus Data

Here’s what the results show:

– Overwhelmingly, those surveyed say the result was more about a desire for change (93%) rather than a preference for the NDP (7%);


– Two thirds (67%) say the leaders’ debate mattered;


– More felt the result was about “cooling on Jim Prentice” (63%), than “warming to Rachel Notley” (37%);

– More say this election was about anger (62%) than about “hope” (38%);




http://abacusdata.ca/albertas-election-was-more-about-change-less-about-the-ndp-say-voters/#sthash.nnNCKwKG.pMOEAgtk.dpuf
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Holmes
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« Reply #990 on: May 17, 2015, 06:37:33 PM »

We know it was about change. The better question would've been, why the NDP over the Wildrose?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #991 on: May 17, 2015, 07:05:37 PM »

We know it was about change. The better question would've been, why the NDP over the Wildrose?
I think the debate is what made NDP change more credible than Wildrose change among Albertans, seeing as how Wildrose actually led the NDP in polling up to that point. That was when Notley's approval rating shot up to a huge 60%. Meanwhile Jean and Swann stayed invisible and Prentice continued to slip.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #992 on: May 17, 2015, 10:15:36 PM »
« Edited: May 17, 2015, 10:38:25 PM by Mideast Speaker New Canadaland »

And to clarify my previous statement, I believe Harper's Calgary house is in Calgary-Glenmore which didn't go NDP for sure until the recount. Anam Kazim will be his representative.
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Hatman 🍁
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« Reply #993 on: May 17, 2015, 10:34:26 PM »

And to clarify my previous statement, I believe Harper's Calgary house is in Calgary-Glenmore which didn't go NDP for sure until the recount. Anam Kazim will be his representative. Although Harper spends more time in Toronto than he does in Calgary nowadays.

Toronto?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #994 on: May 17, 2015, 10:39:09 PM »

I don't know what I was trying to say. Never mind.
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DC Al Fine
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« Reply #995 on: May 18, 2015, 06:35:31 AM »

And to clarify my previous statement, I believe Harper's Calgary house is in Calgary-Glenmore which didn't go NDP for sure until the recount. Anam Kazim will be his representative. Although Harper spends more time in Toronto than he does in Calgary nowadays.

Toronto?

Ottawa?
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #996 on: May 18, 2015, 03:06:50 PM »

Here is the Student Vote mock election results. Not every secondary and primary school participated, but this gives us a huge sample size to look at.


NDP 37% 57 Seats
Wildrose 24% 22 Seats
PC 20% 6 Seats
Liberal 9% 1 Seat
Alberta 6% 1 Seat
4% Other 0 Seats

A bunch of rural and Calgary ridings are switched to and fro, the net result being a slightly larger NDP majority due to netting 3 extra rural seats. Both Prentice and Jean lose their seats.
It also looks like Alberta students aren't as left relative to their parents as Ontario students - in both 2011 and 2014 the Ontario PCs placed third in the student vote.
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Hatman 🍁
EarlAW
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« Reply #997 on: May 18, 2015, 09:15:11 PM »

Ugh, student votes. The only one I ever participated in was 2003 and I voted for non other than Dalton McGuinty. It's my only argument for not letting 17 year olds vote Wink
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #998 on: May 18, 2015, 09:17:51 PM »

Globe profiles the Dipper caucus.
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Boston Bread
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« Reply #999 on: May 18, 2015, 10:56:13 PM »

Ugh, student votes. The only one I ever participated in was 2003 and I voted for non other than Dalton McGuinty. It's my only argument for not letting 17 year olds vote Wink
One good thing about Student Vote - in 2012 it was literally the only sign the PCs were going to win in Alberta. Student vote announced a majority for PC right some hours before the polls closed.

lol you think you have it bad Hatman? I actually voted Lib in 2011 student federal vote. What a shame.
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