Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[136or142]

Globe profiles the Dipper caucus.

My profile is better.

[Хahar 🤔]

I put together an Excel spreadsheet of IRV results using the preferences here: http://mainstreetzone.mainstreettechno.netdna-cdn.com/mainstreet/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Mainstreet-Alberta-Final-April-29.pdf

I'll post the results and explain the model when I have some time.

[136or142]

NDP government and cabinet to be sworn in May 24.

Budget won't be tabled until the fall.

[136or142]

Notley says her cabinet will have just 12 members including herself.

I personally think these small cabinets are silly, but I would expect that by the end of the government's (first) term, the cabinet will have 18/19 members.

So, this is my final prediction:

1.Premier/Interegovernmental Affairs/Energy, Rachel Notley
2.Finance/Deputy Premier, Brian Mason
3.Economic Development and Trade/Skills, Training and Labour, Shannon Phillips
4.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Oneil Carlier
5.Environment and Natural Resources, Bruce Hinkley
6.Transportation, Infrastructure and Service Alberta, Joe Ceci
7.Human Services, Marie Renaud
8.Health and Seniors/Government House Leader, David Eggen
9.Education/Advanced Education and Innovation, Sarah Hoffman
10.Municipal Affairs, Culture and Tourism, Bob Wanner
11.Aboriginal Relations and Northern Development/Status of Women, Marg McCuaig-Boyd
12.Attorney General, Kathleen Ganley

Notley said that all or nearly all the ministers would have dual portfolios.  All of them do here given that "Human Services" (as opposed to animal services?) is a combination in all the other big provinces (and even some of the small ones) of the Human Resources Ministry and the Children and Family Development ministry while the Attorney General portfolio also includes Solicitor General.

Speaker, Deron Bilous
Deputy Speaker, some incumbent P.C MLA

6 men and 6 women
5 from Edmonton, 2 from Calgary, 2 from rural areas, 2 from the smaller cities and one from the north.

Obviously Edmonton is over represented but that is to be expected when the Premier is from there as are all the other MLAs with previous legislative experience.  I, again, would expect that to be somewhat corrected by the end of the (first) term with at least a few more MLAs from Calgary added in.

Given the small size of the cabinet, I would also expect that each minister will have at least one parliamentary secretary with, at least some, real powers.  I would also expect that the legislative committee system will be very active.

First prediction of the P.As

1.Premier/Intergovernmental Affairs/Energy, Karen McPherson, Calgary
2.Finance and Deputy Premier, Richard Feehan, Edmonton
3.Economic Development and Trade/Skills, Training and Labour, Irfan Sabir, Calgary
4.Agriculture, Food and Rural Development, Graham Sucha, Calgary
5.Environment and Natural Resources, Eric Rosendahl, Rural
6.Transportation, Infrastructure and Service Alberta, Christine Gray, Edmonton
7.Human Services, Lori Sigurdson, Edmonton
8.Health and Seniors, Bob Turner, Edmonton
9.Education/Advanced Education and Innovation, Annie McKitrick, Edmonton
10.Municipal Affairs, Culture and Tourism, Brandy Payne, Calgary
11.Aboriginal Relations and Northern Development/Status of Women, Colin Piquette, North
12.Attorney General, Maria Fitzpatrick, Lethbridge

[Boston Bread]

It looks like Deborah Drever (NDP - Calgary-Bow) has been kicked out of the party after yet another photo of hers had been found, this time involving a homophobic remark.

http://calgary.ctvnews.ca/notley-suspends-deborah-drever-from-caucus-1.2386274

[DL]

She hasn't actually been kicked out of the party but suspended from caucus with the offer that her status be "reviewed" in a year...I wouldn't be surprised if sometime in 2016 asuuming a year or so of exemplary behaviour she is quietly readmitted to the NDP caucus.

[Boston Bread]

What's worse is that she posted this after her election, and after her pot shirt/fingering the flag photos came out. I would have defended her then but this is too irresponsible.

Never mind, another source says it was likely from last year's PC leadership race.

[DL]

I would agree, I was inclined to turn a blind eye to almost anything she might have said or posted years before she ran for public office, but if she did this after the election knowing that she was under scrutiny - that is a different story

[Njall]

Narrowly-defeated PC incumbent Linda Johnson will apply for a judicidial review of the results in Calgary-Glenmore

[DL]

Actually i read that this latest picture was something Drever posted on instagram a year ago...so it still has nothing to do with her conduct since being elected.

I stand by my prediction that she will likely keep her nose clean for the next year and then get quietly readmitted to caucus

[136or142]

Actually i read that this latest picture was something Drever posted on instagram a year ago...so it still has nothing to do with her conduct since being elected.

I stand by my prediction that she will likely keep her nose clean for the next year and then get quietly readmitted to caucus

I heard it was at the beginning of the year.  It was likely after she first announced she wanted to be a candidate if not after she was nominated.

She was likely also asked by NDP if there was anything else that she had done that they should be aware of and obviously didn't mention this.  So she probably lied to them.

NDP cabinet swearing in ceremony live stream:
http://alberta.ca/premier.cfm  2 P.M Alberta time (central time I believe)

[DL]

The picture in question was from a closed Instagram account that looked to be have been posted during the PC leadership contest when Prentice and McIver were the only two people running...that contest ran over the summer of 2014. The Alberta NDP filled its candidate slate in seemingly unwinnable Calgary seats in early April 2015. Who knows...did she neglect to submit all her accounts to the party for vetting purposes? if so was it on purpose or just forgetfulness. I know that when i think of all the things I post in all forms of social media in a given year I would have a hard time remembering every single solitary thing.

I also don't think for one nano-second that Drever is homophobic. Quite the contrary, she is probably so gay-friendly that her "gay boyz" comment was likely sarcastic and ironic - and no one i know who is actually gay actually thinks what she posted was the least bit "homophobic" in the first place...the problem is always these well meaning heteros who go overboard about what is or is not homophobic without ever asking anyone LGBT for their own opinion.

I stand by my prediction - either Drever stays out of trouble and does an exemplary job over the next year and gets quietly readmitted to caucus - say next summer - or she sits as an indy for 4 years collects her salary and then disappears without a trace in 2019.

[136or142]

The picture in question was from a closed Instagram account that looked to be have been posted during the PC leadership contest when Prentice and McIver were the only two people running...that contest ran over the summer of 2014. The Alberta NDP filled its candidate slate in seemingly unwinnable Calgary seats in early April 2015. Who knows...did she neglect to submit all her accounts to the party for vetting purposes? if so was it on purpose or just forgetfulness. I know that when i think of all the things I post in all forms of social media in a given year I would have a hard time remembering every single solitary thing.

I also don't think for one nano-second that Drever is homophobic. Quite the contrary, she is probably so gay-friendly that her "gay boyz" comment was likely sarcastic and ironic - and no one i know who is actually gay actually thinks what she posted was the least bit "homophobic" in the first place...the problem is always these well meaning heteros who go overboard about what is or is not homophobic without ever asking anyone LGBT for their own opinion.

I stand by my prediction - either Drever stays out of trouble and does an exemplary job over the next year and gets quietly readmitted to caucus - say next summer - or she sits as an indy for 4 years collects her salary and then disappears without a trace in 2019.

1.I also highly doubt she is homophobic and your comment that this is essentially misplaced sympathy from 'straights' may be right.

2.I would also expect her to rejoin the caucus after a year.  After all, even Tony Rizzo in Ontario was allowed to rejoin the Rae government caucus, though he was more or less cleared of all the allegations against him.

3.Here's a fun parlor game, which members of the present caucus do you think will end up quitting the Alberta NDP?  Around 10 of the 74 member Ontario NDP caucus later publicly aligned with a different party (including the Premier himself!)  Dennis Drainville quit the NDP caucus and sat as an independent but after moving to Quebec he later rejoined the party and became a provincial party executive, but most of the others either joined the Liberals and one of them ended up becoming a rather far right wing Toronto City Councillor.

A slightly smaller number of the Romanow government 1991 55 member caucus also left the NDP.

Given the youth and general political inexperience of most of the Alberta NDP caucus, I'd expect that at least a handful of them will wonder why they ever considered themselves to be New Democrats.

If the NDP veers to the 'right' or, at least, the center, I'd put money on Rod Loyola being the first to quit, though I admit I'm only able to name him due to his greater profile.

4.Global Alberta will also carry the swearing in ceremony live on the internet.  Not sure about the CBC.

[136or142]

CBC carrying it here:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/calgary

As long as Notley doesn't end her speech saying "So, let's boogie" I predict things will mostly go A-OK.

[136or142]

NDP cabinet
1.Premier/Intergovernmental Affairs, Rachel Notley
2.Finance/Treasury Board, Joe Ceci
3.Energy, Marg McCuaig-Boyd
4.Agriculture and Foresty, Oneil Carlier
5.Environment and Parks/Status of Women, Shannon Phillips
6.Transportaton and Infrastructure, Brian Mason
7.Human Services, Irfan Sabir
8.Education/Culture and Tourism, David Eggen
9.Innovation and Advanced Education/Jobs, Skills, Training and Labour, Lori Sigurdson
10.Health and Seniors, Sarah Hoffman
11.Municipal Affairs/Service Alberta, Deron Bilous
12.Attorney General and Solicitor General/Aboriginal Relations, Kathleen Ganley

So, Notley largely rejected my choices.  I predict difficult times for her because of this!

I'm stunned that Marie Renaud was left out and surprised, though not stunned, that Bob Wanner was left out.  Less surprised about Hinkley.

[politicallefty]

So, Notley largely rejected my choices.  I predict difficult times for her because of this!

I don't know how Cabinets are chosen in Canada, but perhaps certain individuals wanted certain portfolios. I am somewhat surprised to see former NDP Leader Brian Mason take a rather low profile Cabinet position. On the other hand, it shouldn't be too surprising to see an MLA from Calgary get Finance. Edmonton already belongs to the NDP, but they could certainly afford to increase their standing in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. I don't see the Deputy Premier on the list. Who will that be?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I listed the ridings above. Edmonton will have six, Calgary three, and elsewhere three (Lethbridge-West and two other rural seats). That's probably a pretty good balance considering the distribution of the NDP's seats. It's also worth mentioning (though not at all surprising) that all four of the returning NDP MLAs will have Cabinet positions.

[136or142]

So, Notley largely rejected my choices.  I predict difficult times for her because of this!

I don't know how Cabinets are chosen in Canada, but perhaps certain individuals wanted certain portfolios. I am somewhat surprised to see former NDP Leader Brian Mason take a rather low profile Cabinet position. On the other hand, it shouldn't be too surprising to see an MLA from Calgary get Finance. Edmonton already belongs to the NDP, but they could certainly afford to increase their standing in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. I don't see the Deputy Premier on the list. Who will that be?

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I listed the ridings above. Edmonton will have six, Calgary three, and elsewhere three (Lethbridge-West and two other rural seats). That's probably a pretty good balance considering the distribution of the NDP's seats. It's also worth mentioning (though not at all surprising) that all four of the returning NDP MLAs will have Cabinet positions.

1.There is no deputy premier, at least not yet.

2.Transportation and Infrastructure is actually a very significant role given that, although Alberta has slowed down with the decline in oil prices, the provinces still has a major backlog of infrastructure projects that need to come on line.

3.Given that all of the incumbent NDP MLAs got into cabinet, I'd say it's almost certain that Liberal Party leader David Swann will be elected speaker, though my prediction track record obviously doesn't look very good.

3.A couple more minor points: Lethbridge is hardly rural  (2014 population estimate of nearly 100,000) and one of the rural ridings is in the north.

My 'dick' for the day: new National Post columnist Colby Cosh (he's leaving MacLean's hooray!),  disparaged Marg McCuaig-Boyd as a 'school teacher.'  First of all, I don't know why a 'school teacher' couldn't be a successful Energy Minister (though Jenny Carter in Ontario was a disaster), but she actually hasn't been a 'school teacher' in probably 20 years.  She was a Regional College Campus Vice President turned self employed Management Consultant.

[DL]

Also, Brian Mason is the Government House Leader - and that is usually considered a full-time job in itself, so its understandable that his cabinet portfolio would be a bit less onerous than say - Finance. i wonder who will be speaker?

[136or142]

Also, Brian Mason is the Government House Leader - and that is usually considered a full-time job in itself, so its understandable that his cabinet portfolio would be a bit less onerous than say - Finance. i wonder who will be speaker?

Government House Leader is only a full time job federally. Here in B.C, the government House Leader is Mike de Jong who is also the Finance Minister.

I'd guess that likely outgoing Liberal Party Leader David Swann will be the next speaker.  There is a lot of speculation on that already.  Otherwise, it could go to some incumbent P.C MLA.  I can't see it going to an incumbent Wild Rose MLA as the NDP would likely be suspicious of their partisanship.

[DL]

I just read that the NDP is putting forward Bob Wanner the newly elected MLA for Medicine Hat as speaker

[Hatman 🍁]

Nice to see the huge turnout for the swearing in. Aren't these thing usually held indoors? Very good optics to bring this kind of thing to the people.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also of note is that the cabinet has achieved gender parity: 6 men, 6 women.

[136or142]

I just read that the NDP is putting forward Bob Wanner the newly elected MLA for Medicine Hat as speaker

I don't know that making a newly elected MLA the speaker is a good idea, especially in a legislature with more than 70 new MLAs.

Anyway, since it seems I was wrong about David Swann becoming speaker, and wrong about every ministers portfolio save for the Attorney General (although I did predict 8 of the 11 MLAs to get appointed to cabinet) I think it's safe to say that like Ben Kenobi, my failure is complete.

[136or142]

Also of note is that the cabinet has achieved gender parity: 6 men, 6 women.

My dick of the day, Colby Cosh, dismissed this as "welcome to the 36th century."

To be fair to him, I actually don't really have a clue what that comment means, it just sounds like it probably is a rather sexist dismissal of the concept of gender equality.

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

David Swann seems like a legitimately great guy so I'm sad that he won't be speaker. Agreed that a brand-spanking-new MLA is probably a bad pick.