Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Boston Bread]

So many provincial election threads.
It's funny that Alberta will probably be more competitive than any other provincial election in 2015. (NFLD and PEI will see easy liberal sweeps)

[Boston Bread]

If I were to make a prediction right now, I would guess that the PCs will win another majority, with around 60-70 seats (out of 87).

The one party state of Alberta should just abolish elections like its fellow one party states around the globe.

Blame FPTP more than anything, there are several occasions where PC got under 50%.

[Boston Bread]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

I tried to make you see the light on this before. An Alberta-Liberal or Liberal-NDP merger I would gladly take. The status quo won't change anything.

[Boston Bread]

In even more surprising news, 1abvote believes the NDP are actually leading:

http://1abvote.ca/poll-pcs-drop-to-3rd-as-writ-props/

29% NDP
24% Wildrose
23% PC
15% Liberal
9% Alberta

1abvote doesn't seem like a reliable polling outfit, though. It admits "IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS (its method of polling) MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA".

[Boston Bread]

Are there any potential NDP targets outside of Edmonton (except Lethbridge West and *maybe* Calgary-Fort) ?

Current 308 projection has NDP ahead in Red Deer-South and Calgary Klein.

[Boston Bread]

Please don't answer my questions by citing that site. I asked for actual targets, not magic math.

Maybe when you have your projection set up I'll cite that. If it's not too biased for the NDP, that is

[Boston Bread]

Here's a delightful comment I found from a Wildrose supporter:

well for 40years I put the x by pc / stop/ we all bitch on the queen spending
now the king points his finger at us. well that’s it and if you vote for the might
blue . I want the people of this prov. to think of one thing .
when E. MANNING ran things he didn t put himself no he made dam sure
Albertans came 1st. so this coming election vote not for a party but for
someone who will work for this prov. funny when you look back jim d put
into law you can t spend what YOU DONT HAVE . SO IF YOU STILL WANT
WANT ALL THE DEBT VOTE BLUE .

It looks like Alberta has its very own t_host.

[Boston Bread]

Alberta polls continue to amaze.

http://calgaryherald.com/news/politics/pcs-trail-opponents-as-best-managers-of-hot-button-issues-of-taxes-health-care-and-education-poll

From a Mainstreet Poll:

31% Wildrose
30% NDP
24% PC
10% Liberal
5% Alberta

[Boston Bread]

Are they even trying to run a full slate?

No. They are selectively holding back from running candidates in ridings where the NDP has a chance of beating PC/Wildrose. This also held for the Alberta Party, at least until they decided to run a candidate in Calgary-Elbow where their leader is running. The Liberal ranks in rural Alberta are also rather empty right now.

[Boston Bread]

^ If it stays that way, this will be the end of the Alberta Liberals as a credible party (at least until the next election).

WTH is this?
https://twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/588742017686970369/photo/1

[Boston Bread]

How do you plan to distribute the Liberal and AB vote when they inevitably fail to nominate candidates in about half the ridings? If the Liberals are polling at ~12% then around 4% of that will have no Liberal candidate to vote for!

[Boston Bread]

I noticed that a majority of NDP candidates are women! Every other party is in the 19% (Wildrose) to 26% (Alberta Party) range. That is an usually big difference.

[Boston Bread]

I think 1abvote has really jumped the shark with their latest poll. NDP double digit lead, including leads in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

[Boston Bread]

Rachel Notley appears to be doing something that Andrea Horwath wasn't able to do, to effectively unite the populist NDP support with the left with progressive NDP.

I think the ABNDP has much lower expectations, which helps them stay united.

[Boston Bread]

Mainstreet will also release a poll today. They said their numbers will be different. But I do expect an NDP debate bounce.
I see that even Forum's seat projection (which is known for underestimating the NDP) has the NDP getting a majority with those numbers. And the PCs are cut down to 6 seats.

[Boston Bread]

The NDP has yet to trend downwards in any poll in  this campaign, which is very impressive.

[Boston Bread]

Pantheon: NDP 37, WRP 32, PC 21.

Despite the PCs being 3rd, half of voters predict a PC victory.

[Boston Bread]

Abingdon research did 6 riding polls, all in PC ridings, PC behind in all 6.

Calgary-Elbow: AB+5 over PC
Calgary-Klein: WRP+5 over NDP
Edmonton-Gold Bar: NDP+50 over PC
Stony Plain: WRP+4 over NDP
Chestmere-Rocky View: WRP+23 over PC
Calgary-Acadia: WRP+18 over PC

This is actually (relatively) bad news for the NDP. They should be winning Klein and Stony Plain if they aim to form govt. Take in with salt as usual.
http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-6-ridings-where-the-pcs-are-faltering-in-the-polls-1.3047764

[Boston Bread]

The Northern Gateway might not even be built under a Wildrose govt. There are large problems with native land claims looming, more so than the other pipelines mentioned. Notley still supports the more realistic pipeline projects. The PC budget is still the largest issue of the election. There is no reason for pipelines to suddenly become the biggest issue.

And if the NDP won't stand for the environment, who will? The greens?

[Boston Bread]

Plunking those numbers into my spreadsheet gives: NDP 80, WR 4, Lib 3

I have no words....

[Boston Bread]

Graves on twitter:

 

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[Boston Bread]

Who the hell are all these Federal Green/Provincial Wildrose voters?!

Green must be their favourite colour. That or they hate all the established parties.

[Boston Bread]

The NDP lead appears to be confirmed. But I would prefer WR to be second, to keep strategic voters on the right confused as to which party to vote for.

[Boston Bread]

The NDP have been straight upwards since the election began. First, their ceiling was 20. Then 30. Now 40. But is it even going to stop there???

[Boston Bread]

More committed Wildrosers will say their 2nd preference would be NDP I think.

a.k.a an Ezra Levant voter? https://mobile.twitter.com/ezralevant/status/593584755096100864

If the polls are wrong again and PCs win, would it be due to an over sampling of NDP voters or a last minute swing to PC?