Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

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Could be a forthold for the NDP in Calgary, especially if the Liberals all but disappear and the Alberta Party doesn't take off.

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All the party leaders are at 0%, that seems about right.

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Being from B.C, I can tell you that the majority of us will only allow the Northern Gateway Pipeline to go ahead over our dead bodies, especially after the Federal Government's "world class" response to the small spill that occurred here just a few days ago.  And I say that as a supporter of both "Energy East" and the Kinder Morgan expansion.

My proposed NDP cabinet based on them winning all 87 ridings.

1.Premier/Federal-Provincial Relations, Rachel Notley, Nurses Union Labour Relations Officer/Former Labour Lawyer, B.A-Political Science, MLA 2008-, Edmonton-Strathcona

2.Finance, Brian Mason, Bus Driver, Edmonton City Councillor 1989-2000, MLA 2000-, Party Leader 2004-2014, B.A-Political Science, Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood

3.Economic Development and Trade, Joe Ceci, NPO Public Policy Program Manager, Former Community Worker, Calgary City Councillor 1995-2010, Calgary-Fort

4.Tourism, Small Business and Culture/North, Marg McCuaig-Boyd, Small Business Consultant, Former Grand Prairie Regional College Campus Vice President, Former Teacher, B.A-Education, M.A-Administration and Leadership, Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley

5.Labour and Immigration/Women, Kathleen Ganley, Labour and Employment Lawyer, B.A-Psychology, B.A-Philosophy (Hons), Calgary-Buffalo

6.Natural Resources, Eric Rosendahl, Retired Pulp Mill Worker and President Yellowhead Labour Council, President Hinton Fish and Game Association, West Yellowhead

7.Agriculture and Rural Affairs, Glenn Norman, Cattle Rancher and National Farmers Union Activist, Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills

8.Energy, Mines and Petroleum Resources, Anam Kazim, Applications Engineer, B.Sc-Chemical Engineering, M.Sc-BioChemical and Environmental Engineering, Calgary-Glenmore

9.Environment, Marlin Schmidt, Provincial Environment Ministry Scientist, Former Environmental Consultant, Professional Accordian Player, M.Sc-Hydrogeology, Edmonton-Gold Bar

10.Transportation and Infrastructure, Maria Fitzpatrick, Retired Correctional Services of Canada Project Officer, Lethbridge and District National Association of Federal Retirees Treasurer, Former National Capital Region PSAC Regional Executive Vice President, B.A-Education and Physical Education, Lethbridge East

11.Government Services and Public Works, David Eggen,  Executive Director Alberta Friends of Medicare, Former High School English Teacher and Union Activist, MLA 2004-2008, 2012-, Edmonton Calder

12.Human Resources and Housing, Marie Renaud, LoSeCa Foundation Executive Director, St. Albert

13.Children and Family Development, William Pelach, University of Calgary Associate Dean-Academic, Former Social Work Professor, Calgary Counselling Centre Scholar in Residence, President Calgary First Spiritualist Church, MSW, Chestermere-Rocky View

14.Education, Sarah Hoffman, Former Alberta NDP Caucus Research Director, Edmonton Public School Trustee 2010- and Board Chair 2012-, M.A-Educational Policy Studies, Edmonton-Glenora

15.Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Doug Hart, Grand Prairie Regional College Vice President-Academic/Former Acting President, Former Canadian Community College Faculty Association Executive, Former Registered Nurse, B.Sc-Nursing, PhD-Education Administration, PhD-Health Promotion Studies, Lacombe-Panoka

16.Health/Seniors, Bob Turner, Physician and Retired Medical and Oncology Professor, Former Hospital Director of Clinical Hematology, Former Canadian Red Cross Transfusion Service Medical Director, Edmonton-Whitemud

17.Municipal Affairs, Bob Wanner, Professional Mediator, Retired Medicine Hat Commissioner of Public Services, MBA, Medicine Hat

18.Aboriginal Relations, Colin Piquette, Educational Policy Studies Instructor, President Boyle and District Chamber of Commerce, Boyle District Agriculture Society Director, B.A-Political Science, M.A-Adult Education, Athabasca-Sturgeon-Redwater

19.Attorney General/Solicitor General, Stephanie McLean, Family Law and Criminal Defence Lawyer and Firm Partner, Alberta Criminal Defence Lawyers Association Executive, Calgary-Varsity

Speaker, Deron Bilous, MLA 2012-

Also, for any one keeping score, the NDP slate is comprised of 41 men and 46 women.

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Jim Prentice:
"After meeting with and talking to my fellow Albertans, I've become convinced that I made a mistake in not following the fixed election period law.  In accordance, I am cancelling this election."

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Jim Prentice:
"After meeting with and talking to my fellow Albertans, I've become convinced that I made a mistake in not following the fixed election period law.  In accordance, I am cancelling this election."

It's a joke!

Colby Cosh:
"The Conservatives are treating Notley as the main adversary, ramping up attacks on past NDP governments outside Alberta and torpedoing the NDP’s fiscal plan. (How many Albertans are refugees from NDP Saskatchewan or descendants thereof?"

Yes, because the NDP ran Saskatchewan so badly they left with a $5 billion deficit.

Oh sorry, that's the Alberta P.Cs.

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Meanwhile, the Saskatchewan countryside has changed.

There are fewer farmers, larger farms, weaker towns, less of a rural community culture and more of an entrepreneurial attitude among farmers, says veteran University of Regina political scientist Howard Leeson.

“There really has been a conservatization of the rural attitude in Saskatchewan,” he said.

“The disappearance of the smaller farms and the co-operatives and community activities those farmers supported have made a huge difference. That was the NDP base and now there is much more a business approach.”

As a farm activist and former longtime president of the National Farmers Union, Swift Current-area farmer Stewart Wells has watched the transformation of rural Saskatchewan with dismay.

“Farmers seem to have bought into the notion that what is good for companies in the food system is good for farmers, the trickle down theory,” he said.

“That certainly wasn’t the view of the farmers who built the co-ops, built the pool, built the CCF.”

Wells, a one-time Saskatchewan Wheat Pool delegate, sees the 1990s demise of the pool as a co-operative as a pivotal moment in the change in rural Saskatchewan attitudes.

The pool maintained a strong rural base, an extensive committee system that flagged emerging issues and a strong communications machine that stressed the value of co-operation and support for the Canadian Wheat Board.

Wells has an old pool notebook with the slogan: “every bushel of wheat delivered through the pool is a vote for the Canadian Wheat Board.”

Now, while Saskatchewan farmers vote for pro-single desk CWB directors, they also vote for Conservatives vowing to abolish the single desk.

“It really isn’t a ballot question for farmers anymore,” said Leeson.

“They market many of their own crops and have a business outlook, even if they support the board in director elections.”

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Most people who are still undecided are people who will not vote at all

That's not what happened in 2012.

I'm not so sure about that. I think that in 2012 there were people who were "soft Wildrose" voters who shifted back to the PCs at the last minute - I think the number of people who would have told a pollster they were genuinely undecided right to the end was very small. What I notice in polls is that particularly when you get to the final days of a campaign and DK/NA is down to 10-15% (if that) the people who say they are undecided also a. either did not vote in the previous election or cannot remember who they voted for b. don't know where their polling station is c. don't know what leader they like best and don't know what issue matter most to them...d. they also often cannot name the leaders of the parties - it all adds up to the profile of a person who won't vote but due to "social desirability bias" will not admit to it.

In a good year, turnout in Alberta provincial elections if about 50% - and yet you never get anywhere near 50% of survey respondents saying they won't vote. In fact even if you add together people who say they are less than 100% certain that they will vote and people who say they are totally undecided on who to vote for - you are still no where near the 50% of eligible voters who will not vote.

And a lot of previous provincial liberals voted P.C. I don't know if that had been reflected in polls before election day though.

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It's not just since 2008 though.  I think it's a common understanding that progressives in Alberta have backed the PC party for some time now to stop anything further right from governing.

Except that from the fall of the Socreds in '71 to the rise of Wildrose in '12, there *wasn't* any such truly threatening "further right" force--except, maybe, the Western Canada Concept blip-that-wasn't in 1982.

There was also the Representative Party in 1986, the Social Credit Party in 1998 and the Alberta Alliance in 2004 that also all pretty much flamed out, though both the Rep Party and the AA did manage to win at least one seat.  Social Credit in 1975 and 1979 also managed to get nearly 20% of the vote both times.

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I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

Leaving aside the already mentioned mid sized cities and the northern riding of Athabaska, I don't believe the NDP topped 10% of the vote in a single rural riding in 2012, and they got less than 5% of the vote in many of them.

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Don't count out the NDP in Manitoba by any means.

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What is TNF?

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Thanks!

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Teagan Goddard of the politicalwire website recently wrote an article where he said the biggest problem with the political media was their closeness with politicians.  I wouldn't even put that among the top five problems.  The biggest problems by far are :

1.Herd journalism

2.The assumption that people are stupid and can't follow complex issues which leads most mainstream journalists to follow the 'horse race' and not report much on the issues.  Or, it could be just that the journalists themselves are indeed stupid.

3.The desire for sensationalism which we see play out with the alleged Hillary Rodham Clinton scandal over the Clinton Foundation while the same media practically ignores that nearly every serious Republican Presidential candidate has at least 1 billionaire backer.

In regards to the Alberta election, this has played out by the media's fascination with the alleged number of NDP candidates who are university students and that some of them are likely to win.  In reality, only around 10% of the NDP's candidates are university students (and university students who have been elected in surprise elections in the past for the NDP provincially in Ontario and Federally in Quebec have pretty much all turned out to be decent politicians) and at least a couple of them are adult students who have returned to school.

By my count these are the only university students out of 87 candidates:
1.Josalyne Head, Bonnyville-Cold Lake, Anthropology Student
2.Lac La Biche-St Paul, Catherine Harder, Recently Graduated Music Student/NPO Fundraiser
3.Thomas Dang, Edmonton South West, Hons Computer Science Student
4.Trevor Horne, Spruce Grove-St. Albert, Trevor Horne, Political Science Student/Customer Service Representative, AYNDP Policy Chair
5.Katherine Swampy, Drayton Valley-Devon, Recently Graduated Economics Student
6.Hannah Schlamp, Rimbey-Rocky Mountain House-Sundre, Spanish and Political Science Student
7.Estefania Cortes-Vargas, Strathcona-Sherwood Park, Adult Social Work Student/Educational Assistant
8.Deborah Drover, Calgary-Bar, Sociology Student
9.Aaron Haugen, Adult Digital Communication and Media Diploma Student, Former Truck Driver
10.Leslie Mahoney, Highwood, Psychology Student
11.Aileen Burke, Recent Political Science Graduate/Shoppers Home Health Care Territory Manager.

This makes a grand total of nine youth university students out of 87 candidates, including three that are recent graduates.

These are the  primary occupations of NDP candidates
1.Educators (anything from a yoga teacher to an acting college president): 14
2.Union Officials: 9
3.Managers: 8
4.Lawyers: 4
5.Psychologists: 3
6.Civil Servants: 3

20 candidates have been educators at some time, including two of the MLAs and another is a 'career coach' whatever that is. 6 candidates are trained social workers, 26 candidates have been or are union activists and at least 15 candidates have some science training.

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Why does the CBC Alberta votes video timer say 19:00?

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Has any U.S state had one party hold the governership for as long as the Alberta P.Cs?  

The longest I can think of may be the Democrats in Oregon.  the Governor of Washington State has been a Democrat since 1984.

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NDP win all 21 ridings in Edmonton and suburban Edmonton.

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Was Ray Martin a candidate at this election? It'd be a shame if he finally stopped trying to come back the year the NDP made their great breakthrough.

He's an Edmonton School Trustee.

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Final (Pointless) results in Calgary-Foothills
P.C: 7,163
NDP: 5,748
Wildrose: 3,230
Liberal: 1,272
Green: 363

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Liberal Leader David Swann keeps his Calgary-Mountain View seat. Will the ALP even be around for much longer?

David Swann for Speaker?

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David Swann seems awesome, he should just join the NDP.

He's NOT a Godless socialist!

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He would be a good health minister.

So would Bob Turner.

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1 PC female MLA
1 WR female MLA
25 NDP female MLAs

The NDP ran 46 women and 41 men.

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Jim Prentice for Rachel Notley Chief of Staff!

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NDP wins seats in every region of the province, though in some cases it may only be in the cities among the rural areas.

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Two of my proposed NDP cabinet ministers lost.  My projected Agriculture and Rural Development Minister, Glenn Norman was crushed in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills and my projected Children and Family Development Minister William Pelech lost in Chestermere-Rocky View.  A number of other social workers but no other farmer.