Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

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Here are all the riding polls that I am aware of so far:

The dangerous thing for PC, it is third in many ridings (and in the ones it is second, it is frequently very distant second). If the Duvergerian logic reestablishes itself, it might be in for a very nasty underperformance.

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Nuts.

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No sleep tomorrow

Even given the overconcentration of NDP vote in Edmonton, this looks good for them. But I will believe it when I see it.

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Let the fun begin!

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So far, in terms of leads it is

PC 16
NDP 9
WR 7

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And in terms of popular vote it is

NDP 37%
PC 30%
WR 28%

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NDP barely lead in seat leads, 20-17, while leading 37%-30% in the popular vote. PCs targeted very well.

In multiparty FPTP the difference between "targeted very well" and "screwed up" is very small. Wait.

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NDP lead 33-18 in seats, 38%-29% in the popular vote.

Did not take long.

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Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

For the moment his sounds reasonable. However, one should take into account that next time NDP will no longer be an unknown quantity. If they are bad, they will fade. But if they do decently, they might get an incumbency advantage that would make them pretty difficult to dislodge.

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Notley riding elects NDP

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Tightest races for the moment in Lesser Slave Lake and Grand Prairie-Smokie. A few votes either way, as tight as it gets.

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NDP is being close in Peace River, PC only leads by 13 votes, right now.

With 4 polls remaining. Why have they called it so long back?

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Peace River seems to be one vote apart. They may have to call back a declaration.

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Peace River seems to be one vote apart. They may have to call back a declaration.

Is this from the CBC? For it still only has 58/66 booths in there.

Globe and Mail

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Peace River seems to be one vote apart. They may have to call back a declaration.

And no NDP is ahead - by a single vote, with 3 polls to go. What is going on?

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2) 73% (!!!!) said they would consider voting NDP if they did a good job. More Wildrose than PC voters agree.

In fourty years we'll all be talking about the tired old NDP dynasty, and be elated that what replaces it is not, after all, even further to the right than the Alberta NDP.

You are optimistic about human life expectancy. Not all of us are 20, you know