Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Lief 🗽]

Apparently we're getting that Ekos poll tomorrow, they said on Twitter they want another night of interviews to make sure the NDPocalypsw is actually happening.

[Lief 🗽]

Nah I just spent like half of class reading that Graves guy's Twitter.

[Lief 🗽]

I don't see anything about tomorrow, but we'll see. We've been releasing polls on Fridays lately.

https://twitter.com/VoiceOfFranky/status/593513777980575744

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Other interesting tidbits:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Lief 🗽]

Who the hell are all these Federal Green/Provincial Wildrose voters?!

[Lief 🗽]

If those 10% of remaining Liberals would just do what's good for them and vote NDP, that would be fantastic.

[Lief 🗽]

Will there be an exit poll?

[Lief 🗽]

aw man, I guess they only trot out Peter Mansbridge for the federal elections.

[Lief 🗽]

PC 46% of the vote, IT'S HAPPENING

[Lief 🗽]

PC 4, WR 2, NDP 0



RIP NDP, RIP CANADIAN POLLING INDUSTRY.

[Lief 🗽]

Well at least the NDP is dominating in the early Edmonton precincts.

[Lief 🗽]

Well at the very least, it looks unlikely that the PCs will be down to single digits like that one poll predicted.

[Lief 🗽]

Those NDP margins in Edmonton are hilarious.

[Lief 🗽]

It's beginning to look like a laNDPslide folks.

[Lief 🗽]

NDP now leading in 40 seats...

[Lief 🗽]

NDP LEADING IN 47 SEATS NOW

[Lief 🗽]

http://globalnews.ca/news/1979112/exit-poll-2015-alberta-election/

This is un-f[inks]ing-believeable.

jesus christ

did the polls UNDERESTIMATE the NDP??

[Lief 🗽]

Which seat are the AP leading in?

[Lief 🗽]

http://globalnews.ca/news/1979112/exit-poll-2015-alberta-election/

This is un-f[inks]ing-believeable.

jesus christ

did the polls UNDERESTIMATE the NDP??

No, polls showed them ahead in every region and in the low-40s popular vote with PCs and Wildrose roughly tied in the low-20s; they were just about right. Early results simply didn't look like that at all and freaked us out.

Did you click the link? The exit poll says 54% of voters voted NDP.

[Lief 🗽]

PCs in 2nd in seats again now.

[Lief 🗽]

YESSSSSS

[Lief 🗽]

The PC Cabinet is getting absolutely decimated.

Yeah, only three of them are leading at the moment LOL

[Lief 🗽]

NDP popular vote is dropping, but they're holding on at around 54 seats.

[Lief 🗽]

NDP below 40% now

[Lief 🗽]

Hahah the Liberal operative on CBC: "this is the second election in a row where Albertans have picked the most left-wing major party"

[Lief 🗽]

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Yeah, but SoCred and Farmers Union and whatever were basically regional parties. The PCs have the national Tory infrastructure to support them. Also, the PCs are a center-right party; in a two-way NDP-Wild Rose race, some of the PC vote is going to pick the NDP.