Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[MaxQue]

In even more surprising news, 1abvote believes the NDP are actually leading:

http://1abvote.ca/poll-pcs-drop-to-3rd-as-writ-props/

29% NDP
24% Wildrose
23% PC
15% Liberal
9% Alberta

1abvote doesn't seem like a reliable polling outfit, though. It admits "IT IS LIKELY THAT GOOGLE SURVEYS (its method of polling) MAY HAVE SLIGHT LEFT SKEW IN ALBERTA".

They also say than the phone polls skew right and than the truth is "in the middle". Wierd, but really, I don'y any reason to trust either them or the real pollsters, given the last election polling.

[MaxQue]

Wildrose sacks a candidate for remarks on gays from 2007. Here we go again.

http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1341481/wildrose-leader-punts-calgary-candidate-over-remarks-about-gay-activists/

Well, it's a very different strategy than last time.

[MaxQue]

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

Liberals might be best hope for borrowing.

Borrowing what? Liberals are polling quite low so their support is mostly die-hards and people living in Liberal ridings.

[MaxQue]

I think 1abvote has really jumped the shark with their latest poll. NDP double digit lead, including leads in Calgary and the rest of Alberta.

Most likely, but there is faint odds it's right. Fundraising numbers went out, and NDP raised 400k last trimester, against 125k for Wildrose. That may help them to catch anti-PC vote (and spinnnng the fact Wildrose is not running in all ridings).

Also, Notley has started quoting Peter Lougheed for suppoting her ideas, in the style of Lougheed wanted to raise corporate taxes, I want do to that, Prentice is saying than it's extremist, so he is saying than Lougheed was extremist.

I don't know who is their strategist, but federal NDP should hire him after election.

[MaxQue]

Wildrose would. Ethics reform, anti-corruption exposes galore, then quick dissolution and flash polarize to vaporize what's left of the Tories.

Will they find a cure to cancer, too? Listening to you, Wildrose would realize your wildest dreams.

[MaxQue]

Debate is on Thursday, 6:30 to 8 PM. Wierd hours, but there is a Flame match later that night.

[MaxQue]

Debate is on Thursday, 6:30 to 8 PM. Wierd hours, but there is a Flame match later that night.

6:30 to 8 in what time zone?

Their, I would assume?

[MaxQue]

Considering your desilluonnal nonsense about Greens and the Vancouver-Mount Pleasant by-election, I don't see why we should consider you as something than an anti-NDP hacks willig to distort facts.

[MaxQue]

I'm having trouble wrapping my head around the NDP representing that much of rural Alberta. How could so many people who have been voting for right-wing parties for decades suddenly start supporting such an established left-wing brand?

We'll find out Tuesday, but the so called "rural Alberta" includes a lot of mid sized cities (Lethbridge, Reed Deer, Medicine Hat, Grande Prairie) that will end up voting quite differently than the true rural ridings.

Ah, good point. I had just been clicking around the really rural constituencies in the north.

Even the North isn't rural. It's usually called "remote". Cities and towns linked through totally empty forests. There is no farming there.

[MaxQue]

rumors that up to 22 wild rose candidates may switch to pc to prevent an ndp government

is that plausible?

Possible, but hard to believe. Would destroy Wildrose once for all and would only postpone PC loss.

[MaxQue]

How are they going to come up with the $2.2 million in fees they need to pay WRP if they cross the floor?

That kind of contract is unappliable and illegal (you can't bound an officeholder to do or not do things by contract).

[MaxQue]

I'm slightly more confident than before about NDP, since Notley has wonderful approval ratings while Prentice's ones are well into negative territory.

[MaxQue]

There's no question they've got the money, the bodies, and the training for a great ground game, but will it be enough?

And more interestingly, will it do anything at all?

I remember during Mulcair's 2007 by-election win in Outremont Liberals belatedly pouring into the riding to get their supporters out to the polls only to find out that most of them had already decided to vote NDP!

And Bloc driving NDP voters to polls in 2011. At a point, if people are really fed up at you, your ground game just backfires.

[MaxQue]

My final projection: http://canadianelectionatlas.blogspot.ca/2015/05/final-alberta-election-projection-ndp.html

Quite the shift in your projection.

I think I'm fully convinced at this point. But you'll note I've predicted a worse showing for the NDP/better showing for the Tories than anyone else.

Don't you think than 89% for NDP in former leader Mason seat and 94% for NDP in Notley seat is a bit too much?

[MaxQue]

Will there be an exit poll?

No, it's Canada. There is never, ever exit polls.

[MaxQue]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

[MaxQue]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

[MaxQue]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

Yeah, I think they did in the federal redistribution. Still weird though.

And some Alberta riding names bug me. I mean it is awesome that there is a riding named for Rachel Notley's father, but appending "Notley" to the end of a riding name is pretty dumb (Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley).  Would be cool if they won that riding tonight, though.

Well, some ridings are made of a lot of small neighbourhoods, so finding a name fitting for all the riding is complicated, so they began naming them for politicians associated to the area.

After they decided to name Edmonton-Decore for former Liberal leader and former mayor Decore, some NDPers started a petition to get a riding named after one of their former too, like PC and Liberals. That was the solution found (it was his riding).

[MaxQue]

Chestmere-Rocky View confirmed for worst riding.

Would not have expected that. I guess it's a mix of rural conservatives and whiny exurban tax dodgers?

The Mormon presence in Cardston-Taber-Warner is obvious in some of these questions.

It's also very wierdly shaped. It's Western and Eastern exurban Calgary, linked through a thin link around the city. Looks like earmuffs.

Yeah, reminds me of that district in Illinois! There is another weird district in Calgary, Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill. I don't understand why some of the districts are so strangely shaped.  

I suspect it's to split future neighbourhoods between a few ridings, instead of all dumping them in the same one which would quickly become overpopulated. The northern half of Calgary-McKay-Nose Hill is pretty much empty.

Yeah, I think they did in the federal redistribution. Still weird though.

And some Alberta riding names bug me. I mean it is awesome that there is a riding named for Rachel Notley's father, but appending "Notley" to the end of a riding name is pretty dumb (Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley).  Would be cool if they won that riding tonight, though.

Well, some ridings are made of a lot of small neighbourhoods, so finding a name fitting for all the riding is complicated, so they began naming them for politicians associated to the area.

Yeah, I know. I bet I could still come up with some pretty decent names, though.

In some cases, an urban riding will just be named for one of its many neighbourhoods.

Yeah, but you know how people are parochial with riding names. I already saw an MP running on a plank of renaming his riding (well, adding more elements in the name). It gave ABJNE (which is better than they dreadful Nunavik-Eeyou, to be fair),

[MaxQue]

It should become apparent very quickly whether the polls were remotely close at all once the seat numbers start appearing. We are talking about a huge margin of error if the NDP loses.

Through, I don't know how Alberta counts. If they count early vote first, NDP vote will look lower than it's really, because early votes lean strongly towards PC, logically.

But, they may count them last, too? Anyone has a clue?

[MaxQue]

Must be votes from retirement homes, where the staff helps senile voters to do the right choice.

[MaxQue]

Nothing worrying for NDP yet, all results are from ridings they are not expected to win.

[MaxQue]

Yeah, it's a bunch of rural polls, which obviously, are not good for NDP. Let's also say vote totals are veyr low, which make me think than it's not normal polling votes, but special ones.

[MaxQue]

I think extrapolating the results from the 44 votes counted is a bit hasty.

Um, no. It's freak out time now.

We will freak out when we have more than one poll in most ridings. Many of the ridings have only one poll and it's with wierd totals (sounds like special hospital or retirement houses polls).

[MaxQue]

See Calgary. Ridings with more than 1 polls have NDP leading, the ones with 1 poll only have an huge PC lead (often over 60%, with a low total vote, which leads to thinking it may be special polls).