Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[the506]

New poll from some outfit called ThinkHQ, as reported by the Calgary Sun. Take it for what it's worth.

Wildrose 31
NDP 26
PC 25
Liberal 12
Alberta Party 5

[the506]

My hastily whipped up model (guaranteed wrong or your money back) has them taking 4 Calgary seats, Athabasca and both seats in each of Lethbridge and Red Deer.

[the506]

New Forum poll. Pretty much same as the others (30-28-27-12), plus this whopper: Jim Prentice has a 22% approval rating. If that holds up....

http://poll.forumresearch.com/data/Alberta%20Horserace%20News%20Release%20(2015%2004%2009)%20Forum%20Research.pdf

[the506]

Wildrose sacks a candidate for remarks on gays from 2007. Here we go again.

http://metronews.ca/news/calgary/1341481/wildrose-leader-punts-calgary-candidate-over-remarks-about-gay-activists/

[the506]

Alberta Liberal voters overwhelmingly have NDP as their second choice...so do a surprising number of Wildrose voters

How many Liberal voters live in rural ridings where the race is PC vs WR though? Any chance of tactical voting swinging a couple ridings?

[the506]

You need to go back to 1993 to see where the Liberals won solely rural seats (97' they held like rural/suburban seats like Spruce Grove - St.Albert), I believe they held 7 rural districts. One, West Yellowhead is interesting as it went NDP in the late 80's then Liberal in the 90's. 

Yeah, I know about that...but I was thinking about what Liberal voters would do in ridings where they're not running. That 4-5% of the vote may be enough to swing a few seats, even in rural areas.

[the506]

With these numbers, I have 44 NDP, 42 Wildrose and 1 PC....Jim Prentice himself.

[the506]

I'm thinking NDP majority while Prentice gets Campbelled. 61-15-9-1-1.

[the506]

Calgary-Glenmore should have a recount within the week.

Nothing from Peace River, I wonder if Oberle is even aware of the mistake. If Elections Alberta didn't post poll-by-poll results on election night (very few provinces do) nobody would have even noticed.

[the506]

Definitely seems from his twitter feed he was involved in the local Wildrose campaign, so I'd imagine he'd have access to the real results from the scrutineers.

https://twitter.com/AL_FORSYTH

I hope he's right.

[the506]

The results all atlas-ified:

http://www.election-atlas.ca/alberta/