Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Lotuslander]

I can foresee this scenario playing out to last few days of campaign:

1. WR in lead in polls;

2. PCs in 2nd;

3. NDP in 3rd;

And same poli dynamic coming into play at the very end of the campaign as in 2012 - soft NDP parked votes return to vote PC to stave off potential WR victory as polls indicate to public. Another 2012 re-run.

[Lotuslander]

Completely different election dynamics in Alberta. Remember that the fed Harper Cons had MASSIVE vote majorities in virtually all AB ridings in 2011? NDP and even Liberal/AB Party are poli losers provincially with that underlying poli dynamic. At the end of the day. No doubt.

BTW, I would categorize Prentice as more of a "red tory" or "blue liberal" along the lines of Frank McKenna for example. Not a stereotypical social-con, right-wing federal CPC type. In fact, Prentice comes across, to me at least, as someone who is very similar to Peter Lougheed.

And bringing over WR MLAs was just a poli strategic move - which obviously has not worked out - and perhaps even back-fired -  to date.

[Lotuslander]

I think that the AB NDP has unfortunately just blown the election without realizing same. By stepping on a landmine and, with a slow fuse, it eventually blowing up.

Today in the Calgary Herald:

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This matter has already started to light up on Twitter.

Alberta is an oil-based economy - land-locked and unable access other markets aside from the U.S. Ergo, public opinion polls in Alberta have always shown huge support for the Northern Gateway Pipeline to the west coast. Irrespective of what BCers thought.

Reminds me of Adrian Dix of the BC NDP, during the 2013 BC election while well ahead in polling, coming out against the other proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning to the west coast. Was known as the "Kinder Morgan Surprise". Completely turned the election against the BC NDP after that. Became a lightning rod and symbol against the BC NDP.

The BC NDP became characterized as "Dr. No" - against resource development, anti-economy, anti-jobs. Even unionized workers from the BC Building Trades flooded their own offices with calls in disbelief. That narrative lost the BC NDP major support in interior BC as well as Metro Vancouver.

I have a strong inkling that Notley has just stepped into her own "Kinder Morgan Surprise" in Alberta with 10 days to go until e-day. No doubt that the other opposition parties as well as the media will focus on same as the week begins on Monday. Unfortunately.

[Lotuslander]

During an election campaign on a potential hot-button issue, "nuanced" won't work when your opposition is consistently bombarding you and the media follows suit.

Adrian Dix also had a "nuanced" position. He never stated that he was against the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning. Dix stated that "he did not want to turn Vancouver into an oil tanker port" with increased oil tanker traffic.

Only the subsequent media barrage, in days following, did Dix finally admit that he was concurrently opposed to the Kinder Morgan pipeline twinning.

BC Media: "Mr. Dix do you or don't you support the Kinder Morgan twinning. Yes or No? Simple Question".

Again, during the heat of a campaign "nuance" doesn't work on such an issue. In politics, that which you don’t support you’re taken to oppose.

[Lotuslander]

In BC, the NDP has had historic support from resource workers. That's not the case in Alberta. Notley's support in coming from urban progressives who are more likely to agree with her stance on Northern Gateway.

Completely have that wrong.

All throughout interior BC resource workers have voted heavily for both the BC Libs and fed Cons over the past decade+ or so. From forestry/pulp mill operations in Prince George. To mines in the Cariboo. To the vast metallurgical coal mining area in the Elkford Valley in SE BC. Just look at your poli riding maps.

BTW, opinion polls have consistently shown that at least 60% - 70% in Alberta support the NGP. Of course those opposed are mostly situate within urban inner core areas. Basically same poli dynamic here in BC, in inner urban areas, who also "strongly" oppose NGP and are also strong BC NDP areas. Nothing new there.

And if the PCs or WR turn Notley's stance into a broader issue of the NDP opposing the resource sector, the economy, and jobs akin to what happened in BC... then the AB NDP are hooped as we approach e-day. Seen this exact movie play out here in BC during the 2013 BC election campaign.  

PS. The other parties turn the election narrative into "It's about the economy, stupid".

[Lotuslander]

So if 60-70% support it, that leaves 30-40% who do not. What is the NDP polling at again?

Not that simple. Many simply "Don't Know or Don't Care". Others are "soft" no. Only the "strongly no" matter and they are in the single digits.

That is not the problem here. The problem here is that Notley has just turned the AB election narrative upside-down providing "red political meat" to the other parties. Again, that anti-NGP position will morph into an anti-economy, anti-jobs, anti-oil industry narrative by the other poli parties as we move into e-day.

Already happening BTW. And forget about the AB opinion polls. All of the 2012 pollsters have stepped away. We now have mostly unknowns on the AB landscape with IVR polls.

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I suspect that the AB NDP base is between 10% - 15% of the electorate based upon previous elections. Anything above that are former Liberal, PC, and WR voters who want to get rid of the PCs and are enamoured with Notley. "SOFT" NDP voters. Esp. when the AB Libs and WR are weak after their leaders left. But the entire AB election dynamic appears to have now been changed moving forward.

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Perhaps I should make the BC 2013 election narrative more clear. When Dix announced his "Kinder Morgan Surprise" it completely changed the poli narrative in BC as follows:

1. 1,000's of high-paying unionized jobs thrown under bus right there; BC Unionized Building Trades angry;

2. Some BC NDP candidates then opposed natural gas fracking in the media; NG fracking is how most BC natural gas is produced; Canada's 2nd largest natural gas producer and has brought in annual revenues to BC treasury as high as $1.9 billion;

3. With that perceived opposition, proposed LNG facilities in jeopardy; Major economic boost to BC if they proceed;

4. Some BC NDP candidates were opposed to specific mines in BC (Prosperity, Ajax, Raven), which had major local support;

The electorate became suspicious about BC NDP intentions on all of these proposed projects, the broader economy at large, jobs, gov't finances. You name it. Remember that the office towers in Vancouver contains the world's largest concentration of mining engineers/consultants. Again, the poli narrative turned into "It's about the economy, stupid".

Affects the entire poli "food-chain". Same thing with the AB oil sands.

PS. The BC NDP has sent an army into this AB election campaign. Including former BC NDP provincial secretary Gerry Scott. But seems all a moot point now.

PPS. Just a couple of examples, of too many, from Twitter today:

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[Lotuslander]

Considering your desilluonnal nonsense about Greens and the Vancouver-Mount Pleasant by-election, I don't see why we should consider you as something than an anti-NDP hacks willig to distort facts.

Sorry. But that has to be the dumbest objective poli analysis that I have ever read on this entire site. Seriously. Obviously and absolutely no understanding of either BC or AB politics.

Just too stupid for me. And you obviously come across as some obscure hardcore NDP hack from Quebec? Figures!

[Lotuslander]

I'm curious Lotuslander. Why do you seem to have such an intense hatred of the NDP? It verges on "NDP derangement syndrome" - every single posting you have is filled with a mixture of rabid anti-NDP attacks mixed with some thinly veiled "concern trolling". What's the story? was your mother an NDP voter and she didn't love you? Did you get dumped by an ex-boyfriend or girlfriend for an NDP organizer?

I just don't get some of you guys. Are all folk posting here just NDP supporters? Because if that is the case, then your judgment is impaired and blinding your political analysis. Firstly, 6 parties are running in Alberta - NDP, PCs, Liberal, Alberta Party, WR, and Greens.

Secondly, Alberta is an oil-based economy. Period. From the service sector in Edmonton to the office towers in Calgary. For any political party to come out against an oil pipeline (in Alberta of all places) is basically shooting themselves in the political foot.

Even the Saskatchewan NDP supports the proposed Keystone pipeline to the U.S. for same reasons.

Remember what happened when Adrian Dix came out with his "Kinder Morgan Surprise" during the 2013 BC election? Right thereafter one could see the political fallout/impact.

Don't need to listen to my analysis. Just go to Twitter. A common theme of many AB NDP supporters therein is that the AB NDP "has shot themselves in the foot".

Just watch the political fallout over the next 9 days. And, at the end of the day, from an analytical perspective, don't let me say I told you so. Open your eyes to realpolitik man.

[Lotuslander]

Mainstreet Poll:


Edmonton
73% NDP

Does not seem logical. At all. Even with NDP surge. That's why I believe that the post-mortem on the AB campaign will focus upon major polling discrepancies v. actual results.

[Lotuslander]

"Alberta’s election was more about change, less about the NDP, say voters."

May 17, 2015
By Bruce Anderson & David Coletto

Abacus Data

Here’s what the results show:

– Overwhelmingly, those surveyed say the result was more about a desire for change (93%) rather than a preference for the NDP (7%);


– Two thirds (67%) say the leaders’ debate mattered;


– More felt the result was about “cooling on Jim Prentice” (63%), than “warming to Rachel Notley” (37%);

– More say this election was about anger (62%) than about “hope” (38%);




http://abacusdata.ca/albertas-election-was-more-about-change-less-about-the-ndp-say-voters/#sthash.nnNCKwKG.pMOEAgtk.dpuf