Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Vosem]

This had to happen during AP season, didn't it? Oh, well. Looking forward to either a very fun election, or perhaps not much fun at all if the NDP do end up winning a historic majority (though the patterns will be interesting to observe).

[Vosem]

This had to happen during AP season, didn't it? Oh, well. Looking forward to either a very fun election, or perhaps not much fun at all if the NDP do end up winning a historic majority (though the patterns will be interesting to observe).

How is the NDP winning not fun? Ending 44 years of one party rule is the best kind of election.

Not when it's a party like the NDP. I was very excited for Wildrose's majority in 2012

[Vosem]

This had to happen during AP season, didn't it? Oh, well. Looking forward to either a very fun election, or perhaps not much fun at all if the NDP do end up winning a historic majority (though the patterns will be interesting to observe).

How is the NDP winning not fun? Ending 44 years of one party rule is the best kind of election.

Not when it's a party like the NDP. I was very excited for Wildrose's majority in 2012

Vosem, out of curiosity, are there any circumstances in which you’d concede that a left-of-center government would be desirable?

Certainly; when a country or province has been ruled by far-right or dictatorially right government, or just by a right-wing government for many years, I do think there should be some snap-back and that it's harmful for any single tendency to govern for too long. It's hard to explain without going into specifics. But, in the case of Alberta, I'm not sure the government before Prentice could really be characterized as right-wing (Redford was elected by cannibalizing left-wing votes in 2012), and I also don't feel like the NDP are the best option -- I'd be OK with the Liberals, who are center-left, winning a majority and governing for a little while.

I ask because I genuinely think that my preferred political history of any given country in an ideal world would involve an alternation of staunchly left-wing and moderately conservative governments, wherein the latter would serve to contextualize and when necessary moderate the gains made under the former, and reconcile them to the more traditionalist elements of society.

I'd alternate the 'staunch' and 'moderate', but I basically agree. I think leftist governments are especially useful for recognizing cultural shifts (for instance, the broad legalization of gay marriage in the US, before it was taken up by the courts, was done by left-wing state governments) or reversing economic policy when it occasion goes too far (though it's difficult for me to think of examples of the latter, I'm sure I could given some time).

For example, while I don’t actually think that the Churchill-Eden-Macmillan-Home string of governments was a good thing (possibly excepting Macmillan; I have a soft spot for the guy and am not sure why), if somebody like Bevan had been Prime Minister instead of Attlee I might. Similarly I can see an argument for one term of Thatcher having been a good thing, but for the love of all that is holy not all three. I might feel likewise about Eisenhower had Truman’s veto of Taft-Hartley been sustained. Would you be willing to concede the inverse?

Absolutely. Most of the examples you cite I think of as examples of pretty good governments, but I can concede that (for instance) the Australian Liberals had been in power far too long by 1972 and a short correction was necessary, or that the British Conservatives were in power too long by 1997 and that a term of Blair was also beneficial (though, as in your analysis, I agree that three were too much). But, once again, I don't see the NDP taking over in Alberta in quite the same light, not because I approve of the PCs but because I disapprove of the NDP and think better options exist.

Because if you wouldn’t, what you’ll be left with is at best a situation like Japan, where there’s a structural bias towards the right so strong that the same right-leaning party has provided Prime Ministers for fifty-four out of the past sixty years, and over that time has developed into more a series of interlocking and ostensibly allied criminal conspiracies than anything else (admittedly, as I suppose any entity cofounded by Kishi Nobusuke would have to eventually).

Or a situation like, well, Alberta.

I think you know me well enough to know that isn't what I support or would like to see in government

[Vosem]

PCs lead in 2 ridings -- West Yellowhead and Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo. First results.

[Vosem]

PCs now lead in three ridings -- aforementioned two and Calgary-East.

[Vosem]

No ridings called, but in terms of leads PC 9-Wildrose 5-NDP 2, including one (Barrhead-Morinville-Westlock) that is outside normal NDP territory.

[Vosem]

No calls; PCs lead leads 13-7-3. NDP lead Grande Prairie-Wapiti, another riding not typical for them. PCs lead popular vote 34%-33%-27%.

EDIT: Now 15-7-4. Notably, so far PCs lead every Calgary riding and NDP lead every Edmonton riding.

[Vosem]

NDP now in first place popular vote 34%NDP-31%PC-29% Wildrose. PCs still lead seats, 17PC-15NDP-10Wildrose. All leads, not calls.

[Vosem]

NDP barely lead in seat leads, 20-17, while leading 37%-30% in the popular vote. PCs targeted very well.

[Vosem]

NDP lead 33-18 in seats, 38%-29% in the popular vote.

[Vosem]

Those NDP margins in Edmonton are hilarious.

Rachel Notley leads in her riding, which is also NDP on the federal level, 80%-15%.

NDP barely lead in seat leads, 20-17, while leading 37%-30% in the popular vote. PCs targeted very well.

In multiparty FPTP the difference between "targeted very well" and "screwed up" is very small. Wait.

True.

[Vosem]

PCs lead NDP by 2 votes in Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley, a rural Northern riding named after Rachel Notley's father. No calls yet anywhere (though some should be coming from Edmonton soon), but NDPs lead 40-21-13 in the seat count and 40%-29%-26% in the popular vote.

[Vosem]

NDP look like they've clearly won a majority. PCs lead Wildrose in the popular vote 28%-24%, but trail in terms of seats 17-12. Hopefully Brian Jean will be able to gut the PCs and make Notley a one-termer (or, at worst, two).

[Vosem]

http://globalnews.ca/news/1979112/exit-poll-2015-alberta-election/

This is un-f[inks]ing-believeable.

jesus christ

did the polls UNDERESTIMATE the NDP??

No, polls showed them ahead in every region and in the low-40s popular vote with PCs and Wildrose roughly tied in the low-20s; they were just about right. Early results simply didn't look like that at all and freaked us out.

Also, PCs back in second place, 20-15. Popular vote for second place is static at 28%-24%.

[Vosem]

Calgary is a mess. PCs, NDPs, and exurban Wildrose all have seats, Alberta Party leads in one seat and the Liberals are less than a percentage away in Mountain View.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1979112/exit-poll-2015-alberta-election/

This is un-f[inks]ing-believeable.

jesus christ

did the polls UNDERESTIMATE the NDP??

No, polls showed them ahead in every region and in the low-40s popular vote with PCs and Wildrose roughly tied in the low-20s; they were just about right. Early results simply didn't look like that at all and freaked us out.

Did you click the link? The exit poll says 54% of voters voted NDP.

Oh, no, I don't pay attention to exit polls. I thought you meant the pre-election polling. If exit polls showed NDP at 54%, then they were grossly overestimated, since they're at 41% right now (a historic high, btw).

[Vosem]

With all 87 ridings reporting some results, NDP are at 53, PCs and Wildrose are tied at 16, and Liberals and Alberta Party have 1 each.

[Vosem]

Later counting favoring NDP. Wildrose leads PC 15-14 while trailing 24%-28% in the popular vote; notably, the Wildrose v. PC dynamic looks totally different than three years ago, which will be interesting to analyze.

[Vosem]

The Alberta Party's lost their seat, but Swann is hanging on. NDP leads 54-19-13, with Wildrose in second. Seems alright; the NDP will get a term or maybe two, the PCs will fall apart the way parties of power do when they no longer have it, and then Wildrose will storm into office and probably stay there too long as well.

[Vosem]

I'm seeing 44-20-13-1, but those numbers don't add up. What gives?

You're forgetting to count seats that have been called for one party or another (just the NDP right now, actually). NDP leads 55-20-10-1-1 right now. Wildrose on double the seats PC have, even though they trail 25%-28% in the popular vote. Shades of 1993.

[Vosem]

Gun to head: who wins Peace River?

Considering PCs lead by nine percentage points and have led there nearly all night (NDP was briefly ahead), probably them. Also, PCs are down to just nine seats right now. Ag's warning about how good vote distribution collapses at low numbers is looking prescient (though some projections had them in the low single digits; seems like they'll avoid that fate at least).

[Vosem]

The three random non-Calgary area PC seats (Peace River, Vermillion, and Grande Prairie-Wapiti) really ruin the map aesthetically.

[Vosem]

Meanwhile, in bizarro world, PCs regain the lead in Cardston-Taber-Warner, which went Wildrose by double-digits in 2012. Huh?

NDP lead with 55 seats, to 19 Wildrose, 11 PC, and 1 each for Liberals and Alberta Party. Popular vote is 40% NDP, 25% Wildrose, 28% PC, 4% Liberal, 2% Alberta.

[Vosem]

If not for Banff-Cochrane, Calgary could be an NDP circle (with 2 spots in it, though), surrounded by a PC circle, surrounded by Wildrose. The NDP leads Wildrose just 38%-35% in Banff -- come on...

Wildrose official says it's a good result for them. They've seemed unusually defeatist this whole campaign. 2012 and 2014 have left their mark.

It is. It sets them up to form government once the NDP falls in a decade or so.

[Vosem]

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

[Vosem]

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Yeah, but SoCred and Farmers Union and whatever were basically regional parties. The PCs have the national Tory infrastructure to support them. Also, the PCs are a center-right party; in a two-way NDP-Wild Rose race, some of the PC vote is going to pick the NDP.

United Farmers and SoCred weren't regional parties (United Farmers formed government in Ontario in 1919, though they were always strongest in Alberta), and SoCred was strongest federally in Quebec and in BC at the state level by the second half of the 1960s (indeed, they were not dislodged in BC until the 1990s). I don't know that national Tory infrastructure will back up the PCs; keep in mind that the modern Conservative Party is descended from Reform more than from anyone else, and there're certainly lots of federal Conservatives -- especially in Alberta -- who would prefer to see Wildrose triumph. (As opposed to Confederation of Regions, which I mentioned earlier, which did incur some hostility from the federal right-wing establishment).

Wildrose, on the other hand, is a regional party. But western provincial right-wingers are going for that nowadays (see Saskatchewan Party and BC Liberals, though those are both significantly to Wildrose's left).

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

Not sure. There is some centrists in PC which voted PC this time, but will prefer NDP to WR.
Also, some electors are not ideological at all and will just vote for government (or against government).

Most PCs would probably prefer Wildrose to the NDP, though. That might not've been the case if we were dealing with a Liberal surge, but we're not. The NDP will gain pro-incumbent voters, but they will lose anti-incumbent voters, so we'll see how that turns out. (Historically, though, Alberta has been very pro-incumbent, but the incumbents have always been right-wing since, well, SoCred came into office).

Dat PC vote inefficiency tho... Ô_o"

It seems a lot of people ended up casting a Conservative vote in places where it ultimately didn't matter.

NDP vote share should stabilise just below 40%. I'll be a Tender and say I told you so.

It seemed very efficient at first when the PCs were over 1/3 of the vote. The vote just isn't designed to be so low.

Really though, we are in NO position to predict how the 2019 Alberta election is going. If history is any indication, the NDP will be in power for at least 4 full terms. But we just saw "history" defied today.

The NDP requires some degree of disunity among the right to govern in Alberta. How long it can depend on that determines how long it can (not necessarily will, but can) remain in office. Since Wildrose took second, they're more likely to become the right-wing successor (especially since in Alberta defeated government parties usually just fade away in a couple elections), though it's not guaranteed: see New Brunswick's Confederation of Regions, or wherever it was that they were briefly OO in the early '90s, for a counterexample.

For the moment his sounds reasonable. However, one should take into account that next time NDP will no longer be an unknown quantity. If they are bad, they will fade. But if they do decently, they might get an incumbency advantage that would make them pretty difficult to dislodge.

What will make them very difficult to dislodge is the continuing Wildrose v. PC rivalry, which will probably still be a thing in 4 years. The SoCreds took 12 years to die after 1971. If the PCs take 12 years to die now, we could be in for 12 years of NDP government.