Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Krago]

Where could i get my hands on the Alberta election results from 1986 and 1989 - I have been googling like mad and can't find those

www.elections.ab.ca/Public Website/files/Documents/Summary of Results by ED 1982-2012.xls


P.S. Check out the 1986 result in Calgary-Mountain View.

[Krago]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

[Krago]

The last time the PCs lost an Alberta provincial election was three weeks after the Toronto Maple Leafs last won the Stanley Cup.

[Krago]

If it was an EKOS poll, the Greens would be in double digits. 

[Krago]

None of the local experts (Stephen Carter, Janet Brown) I've seen interviewed believe these numbers will hold, though.

If you want to know if the polls are real, just watch what the Tories do. 

(a) If they ignore the NDP, they don't believe the Orange surge is true. 
(b) If they start carpet-bombing Edmonton with anti-NDP TV ads, then they sort-of believe it is true.
(c) If they start carpet-bombing Calgary with anti-NDP TV ads, then they are fuddle-duddled.

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

[Krago]

^ If it stays that way, this will be the end of the Alberta Liberals as a credible party (at least until the next election).

WTH is this?
https://twitter.com/davecournoyer/status/588742017686970369/photo/1

Maybe Wildrose can start using Warrant's 'Cherry Pie' as their theme song.

[Krago]

Perhaps Alberta is not ready for an NDP government anyways. Maybe some time with a strong Opposition will help Alberta warm up to the party.  An Ontario 1990 style surprise electoral outcome would kill the NDP in Alberta for generations.

Do you think the Nova Scotia NDP benefitted from their near-miss in 1998?  Do you think waiting until 2009 helped them out?

[Krago]

What surprises me is all the attention that Notley and the NDP are getting, while Jean and the Wildrose Party seem to be slipping under the media radar.  Wildrose's continuing strength in the rural areas and (to a lesser extent) Calgary make them more likely to finish with the most seats, especially with the NDP 'wasting' votes in Edmonton.  If Brian Jean becomes Premier, I can see the PCs dissolving away like the BC Socreds, as the business community abandons it en masse.  In a few years Brian Jean will be shown the door (the Alberta Tories can't resist dumping a sitting Premier in mid-term) and replaced by someone more 'suit'-able.

Alberta pundits seem so spooked by the polls that they can't come to grips with the idea of the PCs running a (poor) third.  My opinion from two time zones over is the voters want the PCs out out out, and anyone who is still Undecided is trying to pick between Wildrose and the NDP.  In the end, I see the Wildrose forming the government - Meet the new boss, same as the old boss.

[Krago]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

[Krago]

I think Ellerslie is very ethnic and low income - kinda an Edmonton version of Brampton or Scarborough

Here are the Top Ten Alberta provincial divisions by Visible Minority Share of Population (2011 Census):

• 58.1% -- Calgary-Greenway
• 52.4% -- Calgary-McCall
• 43.1% -- Calgary-Cross
• 39.5% -- Calgary-Foothills
• 39.4% -- Edmonton-Mill Creek
• 31.6% -- Calgary-Buffalo
• 31.6% -- Calgary-Northern Hills
• 31.3% -- Edmonton-Ellerslie
• 30.8% -- Edmonton-Decore
• 30.0% -- Calgary-East

[Krago]

I calculated those figures from the 2011 Census before I saw this page:
http://data.alberta.ca/data/alberta-provincial-electoral-division-profiles-2011

These profiles used the National Household Survey, which found much higher VM percentages:

70.3% -- Calgary-Greenway
68.7% -- Calgary-McCall
53.0% -- Calgary-Cross
52.5% -- Edmonton-Mill Creek
47.2% -- Calgary-Foothills
45.5% -- Calgary-Northern Hills
40.5% -- Edmonton-Ellerslie
38.3% -- Calgary-East
38.2% -- Edmonton-Whitemud
37.8% -- Edmonton-South West
36.0% -- Edmonton-Decore
35.4% -- Calgary-Buffalo
35.2% -- Edmonton-Mill Woods
32.2% -- Edmonton-Castle Downs
32.2% -- Calgary-Mackay-Nose Hill
31.5% -- Edmonton-Manning
30.4% -- Calgary-Lougheed
30.0% -- Edmonton-Calder

Using the Profiles, here are highest and lowest provincial divisions for total household median income:

$187,737 -- Fort McMurray-Wood Buffalo
$169,486 -- Fort McMurray-Conklin
$128,412 -- Calgary-West
$124,678 -- Chestermere-Rocky View
$120,799 -- Strathcona-Sherwood Park
$114,654 -- Edmonton-Whitemud
$114,360 -- Calgary-Foothills
$112,756 -- Calgary-North West
$107,719 -- Calgary-Hays
$105,510 -- Calgary-South East
$101,951 -- Edmonton-South West
$101,801 -- Spruce Grove-St. Albert

$59,636 -- Dunvegan-Central Peace-Notley
$59,524 -- Wetaskiwin-Camrose
$58,428 -- Calgary-East
$58,161 -- Calgary-Fort
$57,986 -- Cardston-Taber-Warner
$55,483 -- Medicine Hat
$54,982 -- Calgary-Buffalo
$54,895 -- Edmonton-Strathcona
$49,954 -- Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood
$47,035 -- Edmonton-Centre


Edmonton-Ellerslie ranks 27th out of 87 divisions.

[Krago]

Here are VM share maps for Calgary and Edmonton:

[Krago]

Edmonton-Ellerslie poll from Mainstreet: NDP 49, WR 24, PC 21, Lib 6

They also promised a new province-wide poll this morning (Mountain time).

Hmm. Still no poll on their website. Hurry up Mainstreet

My mistake.  Last night, they tweeted:  New #abvote numbers - tomorrow AM! #ableg

I read that to mean province-wide numbers.  Instead they actually came out with the two electoral division polls.

[Krago]

More Alberta poll craziness: http://1abvote.ca/poll-ndp-in-a-qualified-lead-while-math-indicates-closing-gap-with-pcs/

[Krago]

Plunking those numbers into my spreadsheet gives: NDP 80, WR 4, Lib 3

[Krago]

My completely-off-the-top-of-my-head guess at where the parties currently stand is this:

NDP 35%, WR 30%, PC 25%, Lib 5%, Oth 5%

When I put the numbers into my magical seat projection spreadsheet, I come up with this:

NDP 42, WR 41, PC 4

How many minutes would it take for Brian Jean to reassess his opinion of floor-crossers?

[Krago]

If I plug in the regional breakdowns for the Leger poll into my spreadsheet, it comes up with:
PC 41, NDP 29, Wildrose 15, Liberal 2

http://www.edmontonjournal.com/news/alberta-politics/holds+clear+lead+among+decided+voters+poll/11016814/story.html

If I plug in the regional breakdowns for the Return on Insight poll into my spreadsheet, it comes up with:
NDP 53, PC 19, Wildrose 12, Liberal 3

http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-election-poll-shows-recipe-for-minority-ndp-government-1.3054823


Outside Calgary and Edmonton, are the Tories sitting at 22% or 35%?  God only knows and She's not saying.

[Krago]

Pantheon has a massive IVR poll. Here are some riding municipal numbers:



Unfortunately few details about totals. Just 8000 completes in total.

Those numbers are from last weekend.

What we really want to see are the regional breakdowns from the EKOS poll, which is hidden behind the paywall on iPolitics!

What we really REALLY want to see is Forum to poll all 87 electoral divisions, like they did in Ontario.  Even if it is just a Forum poll.

[Krago]

Here's where the Pantheon numbers originated:  https://twitter.com/JBumstead87

Hatman, you are a Wonderful Human Being™.

[Krago]

Mainstreet Poll:

Alberta
44% NDP
26% Wildrose
21% PC
5% Liberal
3% Alberta Party


Calgary
35% NDP
26% Wildrose
24% PC
10% Liberal
5% Alberta Party

Edmonton
73% NDP
16% PC
7% Wildrose
3% Liberal
1% Alberta Party

Rest of Alberta
39% NDP
33% Wildrose
22% PC
4% Liberal
3% Alberta Party

[Krago]

Again, it wasn't so much a poll fail as it was a huge last minute shift in voting intentions. Such a possibility could happen again, of course.

Maybe the biggest hint of any such current potential poll-fail/last-minute-shift is in the Leger poll showing the PCs at 30--just saying.

Except that adding another night of polling by EKOS pushed the NDP up by three points, and the Mainstreet poll done on Wednesday night shows the NDs at 44%

[Krago]

After three weeks of mealy-mouthed Alberta pundits, one finally comes out and says it:

"The dynasty in Alberta will come to an end on Tuesday with the election of an NDP government, what seemed like the unlikeliest outcome, is now the only possible outcome."

- Quito Maggi, Mainstreet Technologies

[Krago]

Do you think that maybe Rachel Notley asked Naheed Nenshi to predict a PC minority?

[Krago]

Has anyone heard if Forum is planning to release a last-minute poll?

[Krago]

Angus Reid just came out with a poll that asks lots of questions about people's attitudes towards the parties and leaders EXCEPT the ballot question!

http://angusreid.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015.05-Alberta-Election.pdf