Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[Hatman 🍁]

Calgary-Fort doesn't seem like the kind of area that would ever vote NDP.  That part of the city was one of the worst areas for Nenshi, for example.

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP did somehow win 2 seats in Calgary back in 1989 though:

[Hatman 🍁]

There's also this site, which has maps: http://wayback.archive-it.org/2217/20101208160520/http://www.abheritage.ca/abpolitics/process/election_results.html#

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

[Hatman 🍁]

I wouldn't support the Liberals merging with the NDP, of course. But the existence of the Alberta Party is ridiculous.

[Hatman 🍁]

Yes, that's what the most right wing province in Canada needs. FOUR left wing parties

In what way is the Alberta Party a "left wing party"? I heard they were a right wing offshoot of the Alberta Liberals and that Danielle Smith considered joining them.

My comment was in reference to the Vote Compass chart, which shows them on the left side of the chart. Whether or not they actually are a "left wing" party is a matter of opinion. My point still stands, there are four major parties to the left on the PCs, and the Alberta Party and the Liberals are centre or centre-left and the fact that there is two parties in that region of the political spectrum is non nonsensical.

[Hatman 🍁]

Let me know when we have a non-joke poll come out

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for lols, what would a map of that 1abvote 'poll' look like? How would it translate to seats?

I'll take a stab at it perhaps.

I'm looking at the cross tabs, and they have a huge sample of under 35s. This is obviously skewing the data, even if it's being weighted. Also, to get such a huge sample of young people, they're probably buying some opt-in panel junk. And we know from the Ontario election that opt in panel surveys are terrible for political polling.

[Hatman 🍁]

There Liberals are going to have a hard time even fielding a full slate. They're less than half way there at the moment.

[Hatman 🍁]

Are there any potential NDP targets outside of Edmonton (except Lethbridge West and *maybe* Calgary-Fort) ?

[Hatman 🍁]

Are there any potential NDP targets outside of Edmonton (except Lethbridge West and *maybe* Calgary-Fort) ?

Current 308 projection has NDP ahead in Red Deer-South and Calgary Klein.

Please don't answer my questions by citing that site. I asked for actual targets, not magic math.

[Hatman 🍁]

Just for lols, what would a map of that 1abvote 'poll' look like? How would it translate to seats?

Ok, so using a proportional swing from the last election, we get this map:





Seats are:

WRP - 30
NDP - 23
PC - 23
Lib - 10
AP - 1


ETA: I used the regional cross tabs, which I assume DC did not.

[Hatman 🍁]

What in the heck is happening in Alberta?

I'm reading the comments sections of news articles (I know, I know) about the NDP surge, expecting a plethora of right wing trolls (as is customary), but instead, most comments are very pro-NDP....

[Hatman 🍁]

Does everything think Wildrose is going to implode?

[Hatman 🍁]

Clearly Prentice is loathed big time right now. That has to help Wildrose.

We'll see though. I have a feeling the PCs are being underestimated in the polling again.

[Hatman 🍁]

Knowing Forum Research, I'm surprised they don't have the NDP winning 0 seats with those numbers!

[Hatman 🍁]

Here's a delightful comment I found from a Wildrose supporter:

well for 40years I put the x by pc / stop/ we all bitch on the queen spending
now the king points his finger at us. well that’s it and if you vote for the might
blue . I want the people of this prov. to think of one thing .
when E. MANNING ran things he didn t put himself no he made dam sure
Albertans came 1st. so this coming election vote not for a party but for
someone who will work for this prov. funny when you look back jim d put
into law you can t spend what YOU DONT HAVE . SO IF YOU STILL WANT
WANT ALL THE DEBT VOTE BLUE .

It looks like Alberta has its very own t_host.

jao.

Anyways, njall, when are you going to join the dark side? It's all the rage to be an NDPer in Alberta now.

[Hatman 🍁]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

[Hatman 🍁]

The last time the PCs lost an Alberta provincial election was three weeks after the Toronto Maple Leafs last won the Stanley Cup.

Funny that hell freezing over is associated with both events.

[Hatman 🍁]

New 1 Question Poll (for what it's worth)

NDP: 32%
Wildrose: 28%
PC: 19%
Lib: 12%
AB: 9%

Regional breakdowns

Edmonton

NDP: 44%
Wildrose: 24%
PC: 17%
Lib: 11%
AB: 5%

Calgary

NDP: 26%
Wildrose: 26%
PC: 23%
Lib: 16%
AB: 8%

Rest of Alberta

Wildrose: 33%
NDP: 27%
PC: 17%
AB: 13%
Lib: 10%

lol...

Don't laugh, I've seen phone poll numbers quite similar to that!

Only part of my laughter is dedicated to its flawed methodology. The other part is from disbelief.

[Hatman 🍁]

If it was an EKOS poll, the Greens would be in double digits. 

Haha. Careful, now.

[Hatman 🍁]

~25% of people are undecided. My guess is most will go PC.

[Hatman 🍁]

~25% of people are undecided. My guess is most will go PC.

My guess is that most people who say they are "undecided" are actually people who will not vote at all...if they do vote - seeing the PCs in 3rd place means anyone who just wants to stop Wildrose will vote NDP not PC and anyone just wanting to stop the NDP will vote Wildrose not PC.

Ahh, maybe. The PCs being in third makes things trickier (though depending on who you listen to, they're still a close third). However, there is a sizable portion of the population who doesn't trust the NDP or Wildrose. You know, "moderate heroes". A lot of them are undecided. Maybe many won't vote this time, but many will vote PC.  The Tories won last time because they won a huge percentage of the undecideds. I don't think they'll vote as heavily Tory as they did in 2012, though.

[Hatman 🍁]

Friday is the deadline for nominations by the way. Looks like Wildrose are having trouble running a full slate as well.

[Hatman 🍁]

Pretty much.