Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[DC Al Fine]

Obligatory Vote Compass screenshot

[DC Al Fine]

I wouldn't support the Liberals merging with the NDP, of course. But the existence of the Alberta Party is ridiculous.

Indeed. I think a lot of well-meaning lefties don't really think past opposition to Harper/other right wingers when advocating merger. The differences between Liberal and NDP are considerable.

[DC Al Fine]

WTF is up with the polls lately?

[DC Al Fine]

I mean surely Prentice had some internal polls showing him ahead.

[DC Al Fine]

Just for lols, what would a map of that 1abvote 'poll' look like? How would it translate to seats?

My model doesn't include the Alberta party but...

Wildrose: 33
NDP: 28
PC: 18
Lib: 8

[DC Al Fine]

New Forum poll

Wildrose: 30%
NDP: 28%
PC: 27%
Lib: 12%
AB: 2%

The subs look particularly bad for the PC's. They are down 9 in Calgary for example. At those numbers, their relatively uniform vote distribution would start to burn them.

[DC Al Fine]

In 2012, the PCs 'borrowed' tens of thousands of votes from Liberals and New Democrats to stop Wildrose.  I don't think progressive voters are in a lending mood this time.

Vote lending doesn't really work when you are in third

[DC Al Fine]

The Liberals are running less than a half slate and could very easily get ~5% of the vote if they don't add more candidates. Are they even trying to run a full slate?

It will make the election more interesting. They may save a seat or two for the PC's/NDP by not running candidates.

[DC Al Fine]

Friday is the deadline for nominations by the way. Looks like Wildrose are having trouble running a full slate as well.

I noticed that Edmonton-Highlands-Norwood only has two candidates (Mason for the NDP & a Tory). When's the last time something like that has happened?

[DC Al Fine]

Never change, 1ABVote

Would like to see a mainstream poll to confirm the trend

[DC Al Fine]

My wildest dream is a realigning election... Looks like that one will be achieved

[DC Al Fine]

Question is whether the Tories hold or completely collapse like LPC '11/PC '93.

I wouldn't count them out yet. They still have the debates and two weeks to scare centrists back into the fold.

[DC Al Fine]

Debate is on Thursday, 6:30 to 8 PM. Wierd hours, but there is a Flame match later that night.

6:30 to 8 in what time zone?

[DC Al Fine]

At the end of Chrétien's term a bunch of BQ and PC MPs joined him because they wanted to surf the supposedly impending Martinami here. Didn't quite work out as planned.

And ironically the most principled floor crosser was probably Keith Martin

[DC Al Fine]

Debate aims:

Jean & Notley: Don't screw up
Prentice: Make Jean & Notley screw up. Look presidential
Swann: Try and get noticed

[DC Al Fine]

Swann's opening statement is basically Notley's

[DC Al Fine]

Prentice seems to be going 50/50 in his attacks against Jean & Notley

[DC Al Fine]

Prentice is mostly concentrating on Notley. Only threat, only viable pool to poach from, something else?

Not sure. He's hitting Jean on spending cuts now

[DC Al Fine]

Line of the night from Notley: "That's not a good way to speak to a donor Jim"

[DC Al Fine]

BURN. Her style's great even if I disagree with her on absence. Jean still fixated on taxes.

Indeed. He's underwhelming. Notley's winning. Swann is getting lost. Prentice & Jean are mediocre.

[DC Al Fine]

Prentice to Notley: "I know that math is difficult"

Not sure how that will go over.

[DC Al Fine]

So the only question is if there's outside-MOE movement, who drops more on Monday: Prentice or Jean.

I didn't think Prentice did that bad... Do you?

Yeah, Jean did a poor imitation of Harper's "ignore questions and stick to talking points" strategy. Harper had multiple talking points

[DC Al Fine]

Line of the night from Notley: "That's not a good way to speak to a donor Jim"

Context ?

When Jim Prentice was running for leader of the PC's & Brian Jean was still in federal politics, he gave $10,000 to Prentice's campaign.

Fast forward to last night. Prentice was attacking Jean quite aggressively, and Notley quipped the line above.

[DC Al Fine]

Pantheon: NDP 37, WRP 32, PC 21.

Who are they? I've never heard of that firm before.

[DC Al Fine]

I didn't want to consider the possibility at the beginning of the campaign because I figured I'd just end up disappointed, but now it looks like the NDP has a real chance of winning and may even be favored. How would an NDP victory affect the coming federal campaign? Would the NDP see a boost after toppling a longstanding government in the most conservative province? Would it have any affect on Trudeau?

The NDP would almost certainly make gains at the expense of Trudeau.