Alberta General Election - May 5th, 2015

[politicallefty]

I have to say the current polling is making this election look very interesting. I'm sure a lot of people are comparing this year to 2012, but I don't think that comparison works when you consider the current dynamics. As others have assuredly already noted, the 2012 PC coalition was very atypical, full of many centrist/centre-left voters wooed by Red Tory Alison Redford in opposition to a firmly right-wing alternative.

If the current polling holds (or anything close to it), it looks like Alberta will be electing its first minority government. Obviously, I'm not Albertan or Canadian, but I would personally love to see the NDP take control of Alberta. The end of the longest political dynasty in Canada would be historic. Regardless of who wins, it does seem that Calgary is the key to victory. The NDP are running very strong in Edmonton, but that would end in a result short of victory. With the PCs and Wildrose fighting for the province outside Edmonton, it does seem like the NDP has an opening to clean house in Edmonton and perhaps make some inroads into Calgary. The odds may not be high, but current polling does suggest at least some possibility of an NDP victory. In any event, I'm assuming the winning party will have to have a serious presence in Calgary, correct (unless, of course, the popular vote mirrors the seat count)?

[politicallefty]

I really can't see the NDP winning here. If they somehow do, I doubt they'll be in office beyond three terms.

I never said they'd get one majority, let alone three. At best right now, the NDP can hope to rule in a minority government. Even that is a long shot. Short of forming a government, the best situation for the Alberta NDP would be as the Official Opposition to a minority government, whether it be PC or Wildrose.

[politicallefty]

What happens if the Liberals are shut out of legislature?

It means there is a Trudeau leading the federal party.

I'm not trying to conflate the federal and provincial parties, but the polling I've seen has the federal Liberals far out-polling their provincial namesake. From what I've seen, the federal Liberals are polling at roughly 25% in Alberta. Based on current polling in Alberta, the federal Liberals may very well outnumber the provincial Liberals after both new elections have been held, which incidentally hasn't happened since Pierre Trudeau's first election in 1968.

[politicallefty]

Perhaps Alberta is not ready for an NDP government anyways. Maybe some time with a strong Opposition will help Alberta warm up to the party.  An Ontario 1990 style surprise electoral outcome would kill the NDP in Alberta for generations.

The NDP has already been effectively dead in the province for years. Provincially, they've basically been a non-factor until now. Federally, they have very little to lose. I wouldn't make the assumption that an NDP Government in Alberta is doomed to failure. In any event, failure just keeps them where they're at. A successful NDP Government could mean a very strong provincial party and potentially a significant breakthrough for the federal party (particularly in Edmonton).

[politicallefty]

I'm among those that believe the PCs won in 2012 by capturing a significant number of centrist and centre-left voters that feared a Wildrose Government. However, I also think it's worth looking at the personal approval ratings of the party leaders. In 2012, Redford was very popular, by a rather large 59-22 margin. Smith may have been at 46-26, but too much of the electorate was out of reach for her, especially considering Redford's popularity and centrism. Currently, Notley is almost nearing the popularity of Redford in 2012, at 53-22 (not to mention her strong approvals are higher than her entire disapproval rating as a whole). Prentice's numbers being at 31-53 should not give much rise to optimism for the PCs.

The polling consensus doesn't even say the NDP has even peaked. Unless there's some huge late shift, I think an NDP Majority Government is the most probable result, and it could be quite huge if the PC/Wildrose vote divides just right. It seems like 39-40% is what the NDP needs to win a majority (provided they also win by about at least 10%).

The one thing I am curious about is the situation with the ridings of each leader (and I would hope some more knowledgeable people would help me). Obviously, Notley is extremely safe and appears to now hold one of the safest seats in the entire country. I'm also aware of the Alberta Party's leader making a strong effort for Calgary-Elbow, which is probably a toss-up. What is the general consensus on Prentice, Swann, and Jean? It seems like the latter two could conceivably go down, but is Prentice really in one of the safest Tory seats in the province (not that I would expect him to stay for very long if his party does go down in massive defeat)?

[politicallefty]

NDP ahead in West Yellowhead.

[politicallefty]

We're only at 60/7141 polls, so literally less than 1% reporting.

[politicallefty]

NDP 35, PC 19, WR 13. So far, so good.

[politicallefty]

39-21-12 NDP-PC-WR.

Is it too early to say 'LOL Wildrose'?

Calgary looks to be propping the PCs up right now.

[politicallefty]

Calgary's starting to turn against the PCs.

NDP up to 53.

[politicallefty]

Which seat are the AP leading in?

Calgary-Elbow, their leader's seat.

[politicallefty]

It certainly looks like the polls were right.

NDP is sweeping Edmonton and cleaning up big time in Calgary.

Prentice only leads by 6.4%, with 18/80 reporting in Calgary-Foothills.

[politicallefty]

"he (Prentice) might no longer be the leader of the party within a matter of days"
Might as well commit seppuku at this point.

His own seat is far from safe now. It's a 3.8% margin with 30/80 in.

[politicallefty]

CBC PROJECTS NDP MAJORITY.

[politicallefty]

Prentice wins reelection in his own riding.

[politicallefty]

Liberal Leader David Swann keeps his Calgary-Mountain View seat. Will the ALP even be around for much longer?

[politicallefty]

Calgary-Elbow called for the Alberta Party.

[politicallefty]

Lol @ saving the boos for Stephen Harper.

[politicallefty]

Calgary-Glenmore is actually an exact tie atm

I thought I read somewhere that that's where Stephen Harper is from.

[politicallefty]

Other than a slight overestimation of the NDP and slight underestimation of the PCs, I'd say the polling for this election was exceptional. All of the projections I saw have lined up quite well with the overall results.

Given how few Tories survived, is it safe to assume that all of the remaining former Wildrose floor-crossers have now been wiped out?

[politicallefty]

Central Edmonton: 191,025 11 ridings
NDP: 129,078 67.57%, 11
P.C: 33,714 17.65
WRP: 13,150 6.88
Lib: 12,432 6.51
AP: 1,742 0.91
Oth: 909

Is Central Edmonton the city limits of Edmonton or something else? Either way, the NDP got more votes there this time than in the entire province in 2012 (by just over 2000 votes). In fact, that vote total alone is higher than anything for the NDP province-wide since 1989.

[politicallefty]

So, Notley largely rejected my choices.  I predict difficult times for her because of this!

I don't know how Cabinets are chosen in Canada, but perhaps certain individuals wanted certain portfolios. I am somewhat surprised to see former NDP Leader Brian Mason take a rather low profile Cabinet position. On the other hand, it shouldn't be too surprising to see an MLA from Calgary get Finance. Edmonton already belongs to the NDP, but they could certainly afford to increase their standing in Calgary and the rest of Alberta. I don't see the Deputy Premier on the list. Who will that be?

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I listed the ridings above. Edmonton will have six, Calgary three, and elsewhere three (Lethbridge-West and two other rural seats). That's probably a pretty good balance considering the distribution of the NDP's seats. It's also worth mentioning (though not at all surprising) that all four of the returning NDP MLAs will have Cabinet positions.