Manitoba election 2016

[Hatman 🍁]

This looks pretty close to what might happen on Tuesday:

[lilTommy]

Do you have a riding-by-riding prediction up yet?

I think St. James and Burrows will be close, but I'd give them to the NDP (both cabinet ministers, Burrows has more NDP strength then St. James), Transcona too, maybe, but the incumbent is not running again. BUT the NDP made a huge deal about Palliser and his anti-gay past (and current position) the NDP candidate here is the Winnipeg Pride chair... might get a personal bump? 
I also think Swan River, Selkirk and Brandon West will stay NDP.

[Hatman 🍁]

Do you have a riding-by-riding prediction up yet?

Not yet, these maps are my way of experimenting with the numbers to come up with a sound prediction. I will likely base something on the latter map.

[Hatman 🍁]

Also, I assume you meant Brandon East? According to Wikipedia, there have been two polls conducted there over the winter showing the Tories ahead thanks to a Liberal/NDP vote split.

[lilTommy]

Also, I assume you meant Brandon East? According to Wikipedia, there have been two polls conducted there over the winter showing the Tories ahead thanks to a Liberal/NDP vote split.

Yes, sorry Brandon East.
Back in the winter maybe, but the NDP is polling about 5-6% higher, Liberals lower then they were in the winter.
I'm going with the past historical elections more then polling for Brandon East. I'm just having a hard time seeing where the Liberal vote will go if it breaks, its been slipping since their winter high of 36%, now about 17%. But the PCs look to be benefiting more. Have to go back to 77 to see the PCs at 48-49%

[RogueBeaver]

Mainstreet: 55/26/11. Tuesday's gonna be AWESOME.

[Cassius]

Mainstreet: 55/26/11. Tuesday's gonna be AWESOME.

Inb4 the Liberals win a minority government with the Tories in third because Canadian polling/volatile voting habits.

[136or142]

Mainstreet: 55/26/11. Tuesday's gonna be AWESOME.

The NDP got what they presumably wanted in that the Liberal vote collapsed, but the former Liberal supporters went to the P.Cs and not back to the NDP.

If these numbers are accurate, the NDP will likely come nowhere near to winning even the 12 seats they won in 1988, and, as has been previously posted, even Liberal M.L.A John Gerrard may lose due to the swing to the P.Cs.

Question for people in Manitoba (or close observers of Manitoba politics) Why did the Liberals not boot Rena Bukhari as their leader long before this election?  It was apparent she was well in over her head for quite some time.  Was there just no mechanism to do so? Were they afraid of the optics of tossing out a female leader?

[King of Kensington]

So Manitoba will soon have the most right-wing government in Canada. 

[Hifly]

Does anybody know the percentages for Winnipeg in the 2011 provincial?

[Hatman 🍁]

Does anybody know the percentages for Winnipeg in the 2011 provincial?

Yes, of course.

[Hifly]

Does anybody know the percentages for Winnipeg in the 2011 provincial?

Yes, of course.

Pray do tell

[trebor204]

* I have the voting percentages for Winnipeg and Rural Manitoba *

Swing Projection:


Difference in % between PC and NDP during the 2011.

Winnipeg:
Winnipeg 2011 voter support: (NDP 50.9%, PC 35.7%, LIB 9.6%, Green 3.3%)
Current projection in Winnipeg are (NDP 30%, PC 47%, LIB 14%, Green 6%)


We have a protected swing (PC-NDP) of about 32% for the PCs in Winnipeg. A gain of about 18 seats.

We have a protected swing (PC-LIB) of about 8% between the PC-LIBs in Winnipeg. Not enough to overtake the only Liberal seat in Winnipeg.

Fort Whyte   32.6%
Tuxedo   27.2%
Charleswood   25.7%
River East   7.2%
<*** Ridings that can switch ***>
Kirkfield Park   -0.2%
St. Norbert   -0.4%
Southdale   -7.0%
Seine River   -9.0%
St. James   -11.4%
Riel   -14.7%
Fort Richmond   -14.8%
Radisson   -15.8%
Rossmere   -20.5%
Elmwood   -20.5%
Assiniboia   -20.9%
Fort Garry-Riverview   -22.5%
Transcona   -23.5%
Kildonan   -23.7%
St. Vital   -25.6%
The Maples   -25.8%
Tyndall Park   -29.3%
Fort Rouge   -30.9%
<*** 32% Swing***>
Burrows   -33.7%
Concordia   -34.5%
Logan   -41.7%
St. Johns   -43.4%
Wolseley   -48.1%
St. Boniface   -50.7%
Minto   -50.8%
Point Douglas   -55.3%

River Heights -13.2% (PC-LIB)




Rural Manitoba:

Rural Manitoba 2011 Vote Support: (NDP 38.9%, PC 54.7%, LIB 4.5%, Green 1.4%)
Current projection in Rural Manitoba are (NDP 18%, PC 68%, LIB 10%, Green 2%)

We have a protected swing of about 34% for the PCs in Rural Manitoba. A gain of 9 seats in Rural Manitoba.


Steinbach   77.5%
Morden-Winkler   73.6%
Morris   54.3%
Agassiz   53.6%
Emerson   52.4%
Midland   45.6%
Lakeside   39.8%
Spruce Woods   37.8%
La Verendrye   37.8%
Arthur-Virden   35.6%
Riding Mountain   23.9%
St. Paul   22.0%
Lac du Bonnet   15.7%
Portage la Prairie   12.9%
Brandon West   1.7%
<*** Ridings that can switch ***>
Interlake   -7.0%
Gimli   -8.2%
Dawson Trail   -9.0%
Dauphin   -13.8%
Swan River   -15.7%
Brandon East   -16.3%
Selkirk   -16.5%
Kewatinook   -18.2%
Flin Flon   -32.9%
<*** 34% Swing***>
Thompson   -40.0%
The Pas   -49.8%


Overall, you can have a gain of 27 seats for the PCs.

---

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/multimedia/poll-tracker-2016-manitoba-provincial-election-1.3464068

http://www.threehundredeight.com/p/prairies.html

The Greens have a chance is Wolseley.

Former NDP MLA Clarence Pettersen (who lost the NDP nomination) is running as an Independent is in a four-way race with the (PC, LIB and NDP) in Flin Flon

There is a tight 3-way race in Fort Rouge. CBC Poll Tracker has it projected as (NDP 29.1, PC 29.0, LIB 28.8 )
ANd another tight 3-way race in The Maples.  CBC Poll Tracker has it projected as (NDP 29.3, PC 31.2, LIB 31.5)

[136or142]

Well I'm going out on a limb.  This probably won't quite happen, but this is my prediction

Ridings: 57
P.C: 57
NDP: 0
Liberal:0

[RogueBeaver]

Pallister says he complied with all disclosure requirements about his Costa Rican properties.

[136or142]

Pallister says he complied with all disclosure requirements about his Costa Rican properties.

I think these stories are breaking too late to have any impact on the result.  Not that I said that I really expected the NDP to be shut out, but if they do surprise me and win ten seats or so, I will say though that were it not for these late breaking stories, the NDP would have ended up close to losing every seat.

[DL]

Fwiw in 2001 the very unpopular BC NDP government lost the popular vote 59-21 and ended up with just two seats. Four years later they were back up to 33 seats and 42% of the vote. I don't think the Manitoba NDP is quite as unpopular as their bc counterparts were in 2001 but Pallister strikes me as very likely to be another ,Gordon Campbell type 

[MaxQue]

Fwiw in 2001 the very unpopular BC NDP government lost the popular vote 59-21 and ended up with just two seats. Four years later they were back up to 33 seats and 42% of the vote. I don't think the Manitoba NDP is quite as unpopular as their bc counterparts were in 2001 but Pallister strikes me as very likely to be another ,Gordon Campbell type 

So, a drunk driver?

[136or142]

Fwiw in 2001 the very unpopular BC NDP government lost the popular vote 59-21 and ended up with just two seats. Four years later they were back up to 33 seats and 42% of the vote. I don't think the Manitoba NDP is quite as unpopular as their bc counterparts were in 2001 but Pallister strikes me as very likely to be another ,Gordon Campbell type 

Gordon Campbell was polarizing in 2005, but still quite popular.  I think Pallister is more like a Sterling Lyon or even a Tony Abbott in Australia.  One and done.

[andrew_c]

Fwiw in 2001 the very unpopular BC NDP government lost the popular vote 59-21 and ended up with just two seats. Four years later they were back up to 33 seats and 42% of the vote. I don't think the Manitoba NDP is quite as unpopular as their bc counterparts were in 2001 but Pallister strikes me as very likely to be another ,Gordon Campbell type 

Campbell won 3 elections.  I doubt Pallister can last that long without losing or getting knifed.

[Pragmatic Conservative]

15 riding's to watch tomorrow http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/manitoba/manitoba-election-constituencies-watch-1.3540068

Dose anyone know if were getting any more polls?

[Hatman 🍁]

lol @ CBC

Insights poll of Winnipeg:

PC: 38%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 12%
Grn: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 10%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/18/peggers-go-tory-in-last-poll-before-e-day

[Hatman 🍁]

Expecting an InsightsWest poll this afternoon. Maybe a Forum poll tonight?

[Boston Bread]

lol @ CBC

Insights poll of Winnipeg:

PC: 38%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 12%
Grn: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 10%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/18/peggers-go-tory-in-last-poll-before-e-day

What's with the Greens? Do they even have candidates everywhere?

[Hatman 🍁]

lol @ CBC

Insights poll of Winnipeg:

PC: 38%
NDP: 28%
Lib: 12%
Grn: 10%
Other: 2%
Undecided: 10%

http://www.winnipegsun.com/2016/04/18/peggers-go-tory-in-last-poll-before-e-day

What's with the Greens? Do they even have candidates everywhere?

They do not. And neither do the Liberals. However, they are polling well simply because the leaders of the three main parties are all terrible.