Manitoba election 2016

[DL]

The NDP will have done well to salvage 14 seats on just 25% of the vote. It could have been a BC 2001 situation.

[136or142]

Thanks for the information on Bukhari.

[136or142]

CBC commentator said Brian Pallister's phrase of "nothing is wrong with Manitoba can't be solved by what is right by the people of Manitoba" was a great line.

I don't know if he originated it, but Bill Clinton has been using that phrase (with slight modification) for at least 20 years.

[Sumner 1868]

Pretty funny that Alberta is now the only province governed by the NDP.

[King of Kensington]

How do the Liberals keep hanging on to River Heights?

Is it because they're "too educated to vote Conservative, too rich to vote NDP"?  The personal popularity of Jon Gerrard?

[136or142]

With the possible exception of Flin Flon, these should be the legislative totals

P.C: 40
NDP: 14
Liberal: 3

In Flin Flon, Tom Lindsey of the NDP is ahead of the P.Cs by 112 votes with possibly one VA outstanding.

In the otherwise last riding outstanding incumbent NDP MLA Mohinder Saran was trailing by 3 votes with one poll outstanding, but in this final poll there were around 1,000 votes and Saran ended up winning by unofficially 117 votes.

[136or142]

Barring changes due to recounts, this is the new NDP caucus.

North
1.Flin Flon, Tom Lindsey, Retired United Steelworkers Health and Safety Representative, 2016-
2.The Pas, Amanda Lathlin, Incumbent, 2015-

North West Winnipeg
1.Point Douglas, Kevin Chief, Incumbent, 2011-
2.St. Johns, Nahanni Fontaine, Manitoba Government Special Adviser on Aboriginal Women's Issues, Former Southern Chiefs Organization Director of Justice, 2016-
3.The Maples, Mohinder Saran, Incumbent, 2007-
4.Tyndall Park, Ted Marcelino, Incumbent, 2011-

North East Winnipeg
1.Concordia, Matt Wiebe, Incumbent, 2004-
2.Elmwood, Jim Maloway, Incumbent, 1986-2008, 2011-
3.St. Boniface, Greg Selinger, Incumbent, 1999-

Central Winnipeg
1.Fort Garry-Riverview, James Allum, Incumbent, 2011-
2.Fort Rouge, Wab Kinew, University of Winnipeg Associate Vice President for Indigenous Relations, Former CBC Radio and Television Broadcaster and Producer, Hip Hop Artist, Music Producer and Author
3.Logan, Flor Marcelino, Incumbent, 2007-
4.Minto, Andrew Swan, Incumbent, 2004-
5.Wolseley, Rob Altemeyer, Incumbent, 2003-

[136or142]

Proposed NDP shadow cabinet.

Premier-elect Brian Pallister has promised a 12 member cabinet.

1.Party Leader, Federal-Provincial Relations, Greg Selinger
2.Finance, James Allum
3.Economic Development and Trade/Tourism, Small Business and Culture, Flor Marcelino
4.Natural Resources/Mines, Tom Lindsey
5.Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs, Ted Marcelino
6.Energy/Conservation, Mohinder Saran
7.Transportation and Public Works/House Leader, Rob Altemeyer
8.Children and Family Development/Human Resources and Housing, Nahanni Fontaine
9.Education/Advanced Education, Training and Technology, Wab Kinew
10.Health, Kevin Chief
11.Municipal Affairs/Aboriginal Relations and Northern Affairs/ Status of Women, Amanda Lathlin
12.Justice and Public Safety/Labour, Immigration and Citizenship, Andrew Swan

13.Chief Whip, Matt Wiebe
14.Assistant Deputy Speaker, Jim Maloway

[lilTommy]

I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
 

[136or142]

I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
  

1.Although I predicted the NDP winning just six seats, I was closest to the actual retail value without going over. (If you think everybody else has gone over, say $1, not $1 less than the next lowest value. I don't know how anybody could mix that up.)

2.In regards to Eric Robinson, there were some allegations of improprieties regarding his activities in the cabinet. I don't know if that made had an impact though.  It could just be with him and Steve Ashton that people in those ridings wanted new MLAs.

3.Possible recounts, closest ridings
1.Elmwood, Jim Maloway, 107 votes
2.Flin Flon, Tom Lindsey, 112 votes (may or may not be one more VA outstanding)
3.The Maples, Mohinder Saran, 117 votes
4.The Pas, Amanda Lathlin, 185 votes
5.Thompson, Kelly Bindle, 210 votes

[lilTommy]

I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
 

1.Although I predicted the NDP winning just six seats, I was closest to the actual retail value without going over.

2.In regards to Eric Robinson, there were some allegations of improprieties regarding his activities in the cabinet. I don't know if that made had an impact though.  It could just be with him and Steve Ashton that people in those ridings wanted new MLAs.

I think King of Kensington was closer no? Back on page 5 he had:
"PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2"
But, s'all good, I think in general the NDP performed about expected vote wise (quarter of the voting population) and slightly better then expected seat count, most people here had them about 10-12 range.

I can see that, Both Robinson and Aston had been around since the 90's, and Lathlin and Lindsey are new blood.

The chatter i'm hearing from New Democrats, after the fact, is Sellinger cost us seats and had he stepped down things would have gone better. So even though the NDP lost, I think many see this as a good thing.

Looks like the NDP got over 50% in only two riding's (Point Douglas and Minto)

[136or142]

I suspect the Elections Manitoba reporting that 43/44 VAs have reported in Flin Flon is incorrect and that all of the votes have been counted.

These are the final unofficial totals

Total Valid Ballots 433,947
P.C: 230,837, 53.19%  40
NDP: 111,722, 25.75   14
Liberal 61,818, 14.25    3
Green: 22,410, 5.16
Other: 7,161

Winnipeg 249,224
P.C: 107,881 43.29%  17
NDP: 78,545 31.52     12
Lib:   42,236 16.95       2
Gr:    17,119  6.87

Rural 155,050
P.C: 108,921 70.25% 20
NDP: 23,115 14.91
Liberal: 14,576, 9.40
Green: 5,075 3.27

North 14,604
P.C: 4,781 32.74% 1
NDP 5,674 38.85   2
Lib: 3,579  24.51  1
Green: 216   1.48

Brandon 15,069
P.C: 9,254 61.41% 2
NDP: 4,388 29.12
Liberal: 1,427 9.47

If you add up the last digit for each of the parties for the province as a whole, it adds up to an '8' whereas the last digit of the total number of voters is a '7' although I believe every vote counts and matters, I can't be bothered to find my small errors.  I'm not doing a bank reconciliation here.

[136or142]

I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
  

1.Although I predicted the NDP winning just six seats, I was closest to the actual retail value without going over.

2.In regards to Eric Robinson, there were some allegations of improprieties regarding his activities in the cabinet. I don't know if that made had an impact though.  It could just be with him and Steve Ashton that people in those ridings wanted new MLAs.

I think King of Kensington was closer no? Back on page 5 he had:
"PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2"
But, s'all good, I think in general the NDP performed about expected vote wise (quarter of the voting population) and slightly better then expected seat count, most people here had them about 10-12 range.

I can see that, Both Robinson and Aston had been around since the 90's, and Lathlin and Lindsey are new blood.

The chatter i'm hearing from New Democrats, after the fact, is Sellinger cost us seats and had he stepped down things would have gone better. So even though the NDP lost, I think many see this as a good thing.

Looks like the NDP got over 50% in only two riding's (Point Douglas and Minto)

I'm sure there were several who got closer without going over than I did, but I was referring to just you and me

Also
1.Steve Ashton had been the MLA for that area since 1981.

2.As I wrote previously, the NDP was back up to around 30% in the polls and only around 10-15% behind the P.Cs when the Gang of Five ganged up on Selinger.  Unlike Brian Pallister, I'm not against mutinying on a leader in general, but when the principle of the rebellion is stated as "we don't think we can win the next election with that leader" those aren't exactly high ideals and the Gang of five gang up and ultimate defeat I think clearly hurt the NDP.

As I wrote, had it not been for this mutiny, my guess is the NDP would have wound up with 30-35% of the vote and around 20 seats.

3.These are the vote percentages of the NDP MLA-elects.

1.Kevin Chief, Point Douglas, 58.90%
2.Andrew Swan, Minto, 51.20%
3.Jim Maloway, Elmwood, 46.32%
4.Matt Wiebe, Concordia, 45.16%
5.Amanda Lathlin, The Pas, 43.45%
6.Greg Selinger, St. Boniface, 42.43%
7.Rob Altemeyer, Wolseley, 41.43%
8.Flor Marcelino, Logan, 39.92%
9.Ted Marcelino, Tyndall Park, 39.39%
10.James Allum, Fort Garry-Riverview, 37.87%
11.Wab Kinew, Fort Rouge, 37.68%
12.Nahanni Fontaine, St Johns, 37.03%
13.Mohinder Saran, The Maples, 36.29%
14.Tom Lindsey, Flin Flon, 32.49% (the NDP incumbent who lost renomination ran as an independent)

[Hatman 🍁]

Kewatinook is not that big of a surprise, considering the Liberals won it in the federal election. There are some reserves in the south of the riding that went like 90% Liberal.

Thompson was not a surprise either, most models showed it as being close. I guess it is somewhat of a surprise in that it was the only riding the PCs wrote off in their last minute push in the north (and turned out to be the only seat they won in the north)

Kevin Lamoureux is VERY popular in Winnipeg, so no surprise his daughter won Burrows. I wish I had payed more attention to that race.

NDP did a bit better in Winnipeg than expected, so kudos on them. Selinger lost a lot of his support, but won because his opposition was divided (as predicted).

[Hatman 🍁]

The NDP was supposed to lose Winnipeg by more than 15 points, but ended up losing by only 12. That would explain their over performance in seats there.

[lilTommy]

I'm surprised by where the Liberals won;
- Keewatinook was a surprise, was there local frustration with Robinson? He's been there since 93 and was the highest profile Aboriginal MLA for most of that time.
- Burrows, the top two Liberal targets should have been The Maples (NDP 10 ended up with a point lead) and Tyndall Park (NDP 2 point lead) and they won neither. Lameroux played off her dad's name for sure.
In the end Fort Rouge wasn't even close for the Liberals, had they not started to crash they probably would have come out of this with double the seats.

I'm surprised the NDP lost Thompson, I really did not know Ashton was that personally un-popular.

This is good for the NDP, clean slate mostly. 4 MLAs that are "new" 2015 or newer, 3 are 2011 class. Maloway just seems to never want to give up eh, he's the grandfather of the bunch from 86. I think the best leadership options for the NDP are Chief or Fontaine.

I was Close, I had the NDP at 16... I thought they would hold Kewatinook and Thompson.
Any re-counts?
  

1.Although I predicted the NDP winning just six seats, I was closest to the actual retail value without going over.

2.In regards to Eric Robinson, there were some allegations of improprieties regarding his activities in the cabinet. I don't know if that made had an impact though.  It could just be with him and Steve Ashton that people in those ridings wanted new MLAs.

I think King of Kensington was closer no? Back on page 5 he had:
"PCs  43
NDP  12
Liberals  2"
But, s'all good, I think in general the NDP performed about expected vote wise (quarter of the voting population) and slightly better then expected seat count, most people here had them about 10-12 range.

I can see that, Both Robinson and Aston had been around since the 90's, and Lathlin and Lindsey are new blood.

The chatter i'm hearing from New Democrats, after the fact, is Sellinger cost us seats and had he stepped down things would have gone better. So even though the NDP lost, I think many see this as a good thing.

Looks like the NDP got over 50% in only two riding's (Point Douglas and Minto)

I'm sure there were several who got closer without going over than I did, but I was referring to just you and me

Also
1.Steve Ashton had been the MLA for that area since 1981.

2.As I wrote previously, the NDP was back up to around 30% in the polls and only around 10-15% behind the P.Cs when the Gang of Five ganged up on Selinger.  Unlike Brian Pallister, I'm not against mutinying on a leader in general, but when the principle of the rebellion is stated as "we don't think we can win the next election with that leader" those aren't exactly high ideals and the Gang of five gang up and ultimate defeat I think clearly hurt the NDP.

As I wrote, had it not been for this mutiny, my guess is the NDP would have wound up with 30-35% of the vote and around 20 seats.

3.These are the vote percentages of the NDP MLA-elects.

1.Kevin Chief, Point Douglas, 58.90%
2.Andrew Swan, Minto, 51.20%
3.Jim Maloway, Elmwood, 46.32%
4.Matt Wiebe, Concordia, 45.16%
5.Amanda Lathlin, The Pas, 43.45%
6.Greg Selinger, St. Boniface, 42.43%
7.Rob Altemeyer, Wolseley, 41.43%
8.Flor Marcelino, Logan, 39.92%
9.Ted Marcelino, Tyndall Park, 39.39%
10.James Allum, Fort Garry-Riverview, 37.87%
11.Wab Kinew, Fort Rouge, 37.68%
12.Nahanni Fontaine, St Johns, 37.03%
13.Mohinder Saran, The Maples, 36.29%
14.Tom Lindsey, Flin Flon, 32.49% (the NDP incumbent who lost renomination ran as an independent)

AH, Yup you won. I said I was being an optimist with 16 seats

Agreed, usually those internal battles are kept behind doors, especially for a party that was in power for so long... but that was probably part of the problem. I also contend that had Sellinger not run again, and the NDP nominated another leader, Oswald probably, The party would have fared better I think.

The NDP managed to save a few seats by clawing their way back to 30+ in Winnipeg. With Selling resigning as leader how soon do we think a By-election would be called?

[DL]

The NDP managed to save a few seats by clawing their way back to 30+ in Winnipeg. With Selling resigning as leader how soon do we think a By-election would be called?

He said he was resigning as leader. He didnt say anything about resigning his seat...so let's hold off on that for a while.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A terrible result with seats the Party has no business losing being lost, but better than looked plausible not long ago at all.

[trebor204]

The PCs increase their vote share in all but 4 ridings:

Burrows: - 7.5%
Kewatinoook - -27%
Point DOuglas - 1%
Morden-Winkler - 0.01% (had their been 1 more PC voter, PC vote share would have increased)

Their biggest increase was in Lac Du Bonnet with an increase of 21% (However they were was no Liberal Candidate this year)

Brandon West had the 2nd biggest increase with 19.12%

For the NDP, their vote share dropped in every riding:
From -2.7% In Steinbach to -32.3% in Dawson Trail. The NDP had their vote share dropped 30% in 6 ridings:

The PCs won 32 ridings with over 50%
The PCs won 2 ridings with over 80% (Morden/Winkler - 84.9% and Steinbach 88.2%)
The NDP won 2 ridings with over 50% (Minto - 50.3% and Point Douglas- 58.2%)

[Hatman 🍁]

Swing map:



Despite losing the seat, the NDP still managed a positive average swing in Kewatinook thanks to the PC vote tanking there.

Some notes:
-Large swings to the PCs in rural NDP ridings, especially those with no incumbent (Dauphin, Dawson Trail).
-Large swings to the PCs in Winnipeg in NDP ridings with no incumbents (Trancona, Southdale, Assiniboia)
-Smaller PC swings in safe PC seats (Agassiz, Morden-Winkler, Steinbach)
-Smaller PC swings in safe NDP seats in Winnipeg

[RogueBeaver]

Pallister will be sworn in on May 3.

[Hatman 🍁]

Trend:

[Hatman 🍁]

Realized no one made a final map, so here it is (official results):

[136or142]

I know this is called the "Atlas" Forum, but why all the interest in maps.  To quote Rita Johnson in her 1991 debate with Mike Harcourt (and Gordon Wilson) "we want the numbers, Mike."

And just like Mike Harcourt was back then, anybody who doesn't provide the numbers is "gutless."

Of course, if you disagree with me on this, that would just be "another classic example of why nothing ever gets done in the legislature Atlas Forum." 

[Linus Van Pelt]

Trend:

Anyone know what's up with the east-west difference in Winnipeg? Normally I think of Winnipeg as having more of a north-south division.